US OPEN 2011: Women's Semifinals Preview

After a rain delay cancelled the scheduled women's quarterfinals matches last night, all four matches were able to be completed today, the women's semifinals are now set.

This year, I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

These are my predictions for the 2011 women's semifinals, which for the first time will be played Saturday night in prime time, with the women's final on Sunday, and the men's final moved to Monday's day session.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) v. Serena Williams USA (28). This is the match on the women's side everyone has been waiting for. Can the putative #1 player in the world prove her dominance against the fan's #1? Serena and Caroline have only met on court twice (both in 2009), with Serena winning both times.Wozniacki has only been to one major final, while Serena has won 13 finals and appeared in 3 others, losing to her sister Venus Williams twice (2001 US Open and 2008 Wimbledon) and Maria Sharapova once (2004 Wimbledon). The problem that Wozniacki has is that many people feel that she can be hit off the court. Her game is built around counter-punching, and she (often) plays her best tennis when she is behind in the score. But getting behind on the score against someone as mentally tough as Serena Williams is not the same thing as getting behind the score against 2004 US Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova. It does show that Wozniacki likes pace and can feed off her opponent's power and use it against them. There is no more powerful a female player than Serena, and she will demonstrate the danger of Wozniacki's strategy to blast past her and reach her fifth US Open final. PREDICTION: Serena.


Angelique Kerber GER v. Samantha Stosur AUS (9). Although I didn't pick either one of these players to reach this point in the tournament, I am delighted to see that Samantha Stosur is in her second major semifinal, with an excellent opportunity to reach her second major final, where hopefully she can acquit herself better than she did in the 2010 Roland Garros final.

Kerber is the only unseeded player among the semifinalists and since she's ranked around 92 in the world will make more money from this tournament than she made in the last year (or two) on the tour. In other words, Kerber is just happy to be here and will not put up much resistance if the match gets tough. The rap against Stosur is that she's mentally fragile, and the fact that she has played 11 tournament finals and only won 2 of them is evidence of that. However, she impressed a lot of people with her mental fortitude in her match against Maria Kirilenko when she lost the second set 15-17 in the longest women's tiebreaker in grand slam history (blowing 5 match points in the process). Stosur was able to survive the emotional rollercoaster of playing such an intense tiebreaker (where twice she was denied match point wins due to Kirilenko's successful electronic line challenges) to win the deciding set relatively easily 6-3. This new toughness should serve her well in the final on Sunday night. PREDICTION: Stosur.

US OPEN 2011: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Andrew Ong/usopen.org

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) v. Andrea Petkovic GER (10). Wozniacki was hand delivered a get-out-of-jail free card from Svetlana Kuznetsova, who was leading 7-6(6) 4-2 40-15 when suddenly the Russian had (another) one of her epic collapses, losing 11 of the next 13 games in a draining 3-hour-plus match. This was something of a repeat of their 2009 US Open 4th round encounter which Wozniacki had won 2-6 7-6 7-6 on her way to only major final. Her opponent Petkovic played a much less dramatic match against talented Spaniard Carlos Suarez Navarro, winning in straight sets 6-1 6-4. If  2-time major champion Sveta couldn't blast "Sunshine" off the court, what chance does Petkorazzi have of winning? Regardless of who wins this match to reach the semifinal, they have almost no chance getting to the final since they are in Serena Williams half of the draw. PREDICTION: Wozniacki.


Serena Williams USA (28) v. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova RUS (17). The young, talented Russian was finally able to outlast the Iron Woman herself, Francesca Schiavone of Italy, in a 5-7 6-3 6-4 win to reach her second major quarterfinal of the year, claiming revenge for the come-from-behind win Schiavone had eked out during her historic journey to the 2011 French Open final. Unsurprisingly, Serena is the lowest seeded player to be in the final 8, following her straight sets dismissal of #4 seed Victoria Azarenka and #16 seed Ana Ivanovic. It is extremely doubtful the hard-hitting Pavlyuchenkova playing in her 2nd career quarterfinal will be able to make much impact on the hardest-hitting player of her generation playing in her 32nd quarterfinal.The only thing that could stop Serena winning the tournament on Saturday is being hit by a bus. PREDICTION: Williams.


Flavia Pennetta ITA (26) v. Angelique Kerber GER. The mystery quarterfinalists. It's not surprising that two of the quarterfinalists are from Germany, but that one of those German quarterfinalists is Angelique Kerber is stunning. After going through a notable lull after the great Steffi Graf, Germany has had a recent resurgence with Julia Georges, Sabine Lisicki and Andrea Petkovic all having reached the Top 20 in the rankings. However, it is the #4 German player who is in her first major quarterfinal against Italy's #2, Flavia Pennetta. Pennetta relishes her reputation as a giant killer, and eliminated Maria Sharapova from the draw 2 rounds ago. It is an incredible opportunity for the Italian to reach her first major semifinal and perhaps become the second woman from her country ever to reach a major final, and shockingly, the second Italian player this year. PREDICTION: Pennetta.


Vera Zvonareva RUS (2) v. Samantha Stosur AUS (9). This should be the popcorn match of the round. Zvonareva has been in 2 major finals and is now an established hard-court force to be reckoned with, but no-one who has ever had the mental collapses Vera has exhibited can ever really be counted on to play up to their potential level when it counts. In Samantha Stosur she faces an opponent who has beaten her 6 times in a row, but who is also known to wilt under the pressure of an important moment. Stosur has been improving in this category, and battling back to win the third set convincingly after losing the longest women's tie-break in Grand Slam history (15-17) against Maria Kirilenko shows her strengthening mental fortitude. Zvonareva has tasted success on these courts before and that might be the difference in a 3rd set tiebreak. PREDICTION: Zvonareva.

US OPEN 2011: Sharapova Loses, Murray Survives

Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images for USTA

Update from Day 5 of the US Open. Maria Sharapova lost to Flavia Pennetta. Andy Murray lost the first two sets and then refused to lose another,w winning in 5 against Robin Haase of the Netherlands. Donald Young gutted out an amazing 5th set tiebreak win over 2010 US Open quarterfinalist Stanislas Wawrinka.