POLL: Iowa Voters Oppose Marriage Equality Repeal

A new poll from the Des Moines Register  illustrates that even if Iowan voters were given the opportunity to vote on the legality of their fellow citizens' marriages (which is unlikely to happen) a majority of them would oppose a ban on same-sex marriage being added to the state constitution.

According to the poll 56% oppose the same-sex marriage ban while 38% support it.

The poll also asks about the unanimous Iowa State Supreme Court decision Varnum v. Brien which legalized marriage equality in April 2009. On that front the results are less supportive of equality with 30% favoring the decision and 36% opposing it while a full 33% of the respondents "don't care much" either way.
The poll was taken February 12-15 and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Because the Democrats control the Iowa State Senate (by a slim majority of one vote!), there is no way that a constitutional amendment will be presented to the Iowa voters before 2015 (a constitutional amendment has to be passed by two consecutive sessions of the Iowa Legislature before it can appear before voters).

Do The Math: We Don't Know Who Won Iowa 2012

On the first official presidential contest of 2012 on January 3rd the mainstream consensus was that Mitt Romney had "won" by 8 votes (out of nearly 120,000 votes cast) ahead of Rick Santorum. This was such a ludicrous claim that I didn't even blog about it, deciding to wait until the official vote tallies were released. 8 votes out of  120,000 is a MUCH smaller margin of error than the margin between Bush and Gore in 2000 (an alleged 437 votes out of 5.8 million). No voting system that we currently use has the capability to resolve that kind of margin (.00005%).

Well, now the official final vote tallies from the 2012 Iowa caucuses are in and they are:

Mitt Romney 29,805
Rick Santorum 29,839

Curiously, now Republican officials are coming around to mathematical realities and calling the results a "split decision" or tie. This is what they should have done at the very beginning! DO THE MATH. The point here is that, no, Romney did not win the first two nomination contests, he tied in the first and won in a state where he owns a house and was Governor of its largest neighboring state.

Whether this new information will be enough to stop Romney's supposed inevitable momentum to the Republican nomination for the presidency we will see. Also, this is an ominous sign that the 2012 presidential election may be as close as the 2000 election, and I really don't think we want the Supreme Court deciding two elections of the last four, do we?

Relative Cost Per Vote In Iowa

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God.

Celebrity Friday: Zach Wahls

Zach Wahls, is a 19-year-old student from Iowa who was raised by his two moms and became an internet celebrity earlier this year when he defended his family in brilliant, emotionally moving testimony before the state House of Representatives which was considering legislation to ban gay marriage in the state. Zach is today's subject for Celebrity Friday.

This week comes news that his video has been watched almost 16 million times, becoming the most watched political video of 2011, ahead of President Obama's announcement of the death of Osama bin Laden and President Obama's humorous speech at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, among others.

Watch it again, and weep!



Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

NYT Reports on Nationwide Marriage Equality Fight

The New York Times had an interesting editorial on the fight for nationwide marriage equality in light of the recent 10-8 vote in the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee to repeal the so-called Defense of Marriage Act. The above image indicates the current state-by-state recognition of same-sex relationships. The highlights are that only three states: Rhode Island, New Mexico and New Jersey have no laws banning marriage equality. In two of those three states (Rhode Island and New Jersey) civil union statutes have been enacted which purport to provide all the rights and responsibilities of marriage while reserving the name of "marriage" to opposite-sex couples only.

The editorial ("A Long, Winding Road to Marriage Equality") says:

Twenty-nine states have enacted constitutional amendments blocking same-sex marriage. In 18 of those states, the amendments also ban domestic partnerships or civil unions. Twelve states bar same-sex marriage by statute, and in two, Minnesota and North Carolina, anti-gay-marriage constitutional amendments will go before voters next year. At this point, nearly 60 percent of Americans live in places that do not protect gay couples in any way. 

With New York, same-sex marriage is still allowed in only six states and the District of Columbia. Only 13 states provide some recognition of gay relationships with broad domestic partnerships or more limited rights, for things like medical decisions and inheritance (this includes 11 states with constitutional amendments or statutes barring gay marriage).

In addition to the attempts to ban marriage equality in Minnesota and North Carolina via the ballot box in 2012, there will be attempts to legalize marriage equality by ballot measure in Maine. There will be no such attempt in California, however. (Thank Goodness!)  Also, in Washington, New Jersey and Maryland there are on-going efforts to legalize same-sex marriages in those states.

Of course at MadProfessah.com we will be covering all these political stories in 2012!

REPORT: Over 50,000 Legally Married Same-Sex Couples

The Williams Institute of UCLA Law School issued a report this week, Patterns of Relationship 
Recognition by Same-Sex Couples in the United States, which details that over 50,000 couples have legally married in the United States and over 140,000 have entered into some form of governmental recognition of their relationship at the state level.

From the press release:

LOS ANGELES, CA – Over 140,000 same-sex couples have formalized their
relationship under state law in the United States.  Nearly 50,000 same-sex couples have
married.  These findings from a new Williams Institute study, Patterns of Relationship
Recognition by Same-Sex Couples in the United States, are based on state administrative
data from those states where same-sex couples can marry, enter civil unions or domestic
partnerships, or enter other legal relationship statuses.  The study also finds that same-sex
couples prefer marriage over other non-marital legal relationship statuses.   

“We see a lot of evidence that same-sex couples strongly prefer marriage over civil
unions or domestic partnerships. Same-sex couples marry at higher rates in the first year
they have the option than we see in civil union states, for example,” M.V. Lee Badgett,
Research Director of The Williams Institute and professor of economics at the University
of Massachusetts Amherst.  “Our findings are consistent with other research showing that
couples value marriage more for its social meaning than for its practical benefits.”   

The new study also provides a snapshot of the couples who enter legally-recognized
relationship statuses.  These couples are predominantly female, tend to be younger than
currently married different-sex couples, and tend to be older than newly-married
different-sex couples. When a state allows marriage for same-sex couples, couples will
travel to that state to marry from other states in which they do not enjoy that same
opportunity.  

“When we look at the residency of same-sex couples who marry, around 60 percent live
outside of the state where they got married,” said Jody L. Herman, Peter J. Cooper Public
Policy Fellow at The Williams Institute.  “Couples are much less likely to travel out of
state to enter non-marital legal statuses.  This is further evidence that same-sex couples
prefer marriage.”

The graphic at the top illustrates the impact of same-sex marriage in Iowa on the surrounding states in the midwest of the country. Currently, New York, Iowa, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut and the District of Columbia all allow legal same-sex marriage.

Which state will be next? Perhaps Maine or Maryland?

IOWA: Democrats Retain Senate Majority, Saving Marriage Equality

Another happy story from Tuesday's elections is the fact that Democrats retained control of the Iowa State Senate, which means that the only mid-west state which enjoys marriage equality will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Democrat Liz Mathis defeated Republican Cindy Golding in a special election in Iowa on whose result control of the State Senate depended:

Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal (D-Council Bluffs) extended his congratulations to Mathis Tuesday night.

“As Iowa’s newest State Senator, Liz Mathis will ensure that our state continues to be a place where business can grow and prosper, a place where we can raise our families and a place where our children have access to every opportunity,” he said.

Sue Dvorsky, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party, also congratulated Mathis and extended her thanks to the candidate and the party’s “countless volunteers and community leaders.”

“This election reaffirms Democratic commitment to creating jobs and strengthening education in the state of Iowa. Voters in Senate District 18 know that Democrats are the best choice to continue moving Iowa forward, and made their voice heard tonight at the polls,” Dvorsky said.

But in addition to being a victory for state Democrats, the race was also welcomed as a victory for LGBT Iowans. If the outcome had been different, a possibility existed that a House Republican plan to begin a constitutional amendment process would move forward.

In fact, several regional and national social conservative organizations that object to same-sex marriage made independent expenditures in support of the GOP candidate. Just days prior to the election, a series of robocalls featuring former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee were issued by Citizens United on behalf of Golding. The National Organization for Marriage, The Family Leader and Family Research Council Action drove the “Values Bus” into the district on Monday in order to rally voters to support Golding based on cultural issues.

Troy Price, executive director of One Iowa, the state’s largest LGBT advocacy group, heralded the election results as “a great victory for Iowans.”

” Voters in this district clearly rejected the mean-spirited and misleading attacks of our opposition that we saw right up until the polls closed on election day. Instead, voters elected the candidate they felt would best move our state forward. We are so proud of our volunteers, staff, and supporters who helped make this victory possible. We know that Liz Mathis will be a great senator, and we look forward to working with her in the coming legislative session.”