PPIC Poll Says 56% Of CA Likely Voters Support Marriage Equality

Wow! The good polling news on marriage equality just keeps on coming. As this is a presidential election year, it is not surprising that there is a lot of polling going on, and I suspect more and more polls will be including the marriage equality question. Just last week we heard from the Field Poll that 59% of Californians support marriage equality (compared to just 34% who do not), the largest lead (25 points) and highest level of support for same-sex marriage ever recorded in the state by the most trusted name in California polling.

The latest poll is from PPIC and says that 52% of registered voters support allowing same-sex marriage, compared to 41% who don't a margin of +11 for the supporters of equality, which is identical to what the PPIC poll showed last September. Of course the grain of salt here is that the margin of error of the PPIC poll is ±3.8 points, so technically we can not be sure that a majority of registered voters in California support marriage equality. We can however be sure that there are more supporters of marriage equality than people who oppose it.

PPIC also attempts to sample "likely voters," and among this group support for marriage equality is even higher, at 56% with a mere 38%expressing opposition. This is a margin of +18 for the forces for equality. The margin of error on this statistic is ±4.2 points, so this time, according to PPIC, a majority of Californians likely to vote in the June 2012 primary support marriage equality (see figure, below).

Equality California immediately sent out a statement about the new poll which included the graphic at the top of this post highlighting the improvement in the "likely voter" statistic on the question of marriage in the last 3 years.

This was a somewhat curious move, since no one in California is going to be voting on the question of marriage equality anytime soon, since there is no organized effort to put a Proposition 8 repeal measure on the November 2012 ballot due to the fact that the Perry v Brown litigation about the constitutionality of California's same-sex marriage ban is still tied up in the federal courts and is unlikely to be resolved before June 2013 (at the earliest!)

All that being said, two polls within two weeks indicating near-majority support for marriage equality and at the very least significant, double-digit leads for the pro-equality forces are very encouraging and good news!

Analysis of Field Poll Showing 59% Support Marriage Equality

The latest Field Poll is out and it has some encouraging news for supporters of marriage equality in California. By a margin of 25 points, 59% to 34%, California registered voters support "same-sex marriage," a jump of 7  points in support from the last Field poll taken in July 2010 which had the margin at a mere 9 points, 51% to 42%. The margin of error of these polls is ±4.5 percentage points.

Although this is very good news that the most respected polling outfit in California is showing support for marriage equality well above the majority position, it should be noted that 1) Field has a history of overstating supporting for the pro-equality side and 2) this is a poll of registered voters, which means it is essentially meaningless in predicting the outcome of a voter initiative on the measure.

First I will elaborate on my first point (Field has overestimated marriage equality support in the past). In 2008, during the fight to defeat Proposition 8 and defend California marriage equality from June 15 to November 4 (173 days) the Field poll issued 3 polls, all of which had the NO side ahead, often by significant margins. On September 19, 2008 Field said Proposition 8 was losing 55% No, 38% Yes among likely voters, On August 29, 2008 the Field Poll said Proposition 8 was losing 54% No to 40% Yes among likely voters and on its first poll on the issue on July 19, 2008 Field said that Proposition 8 was losing 51% No to 42% among likely voters. According to David Flesicher's exhaustive (and definitive) analysis of the campaign published in The Prop 8 Report, the internal polls of the No On 8 campaign NEVER had the No side above 48% of support, although their daily tracking polling did sometimes have the No side slightly ahead of the Yes side when the Undecided number would get larger. Once the "Princes" ad ran on California television for 10 days without a response Proposition 8 was ahead outside the margin of error. Field has never explained why their polling was so off on the Proposition 8 question, which ultimately passed by a margin of Yes 52.3%, No 47.7%.

My second point is to note that this is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. It is true that it does not make sense to even speak about likely voters at this point, more than 8 months before the general election, but I want to clarify that there is always a difference between polling the set of all possible voters, and the results created when the subset of voters who actually go to the polls (or return their absentee ballots) and vote. However, the fact that we finally have one data point where majority support for marriage equality has been reached OUTSIDE the margin of error, bring us closer to the pre-conditions for when I would support an attempt to place a ballot measure to repeal Proposition 8.

I repeat those conditions here, for completeness:

1. multiple polls separated in time of weeks or months indicating clear majority support for marriage equality among registered voters;
2. at least one million dollars in the bank to begin a campaign; and 
3. a clearly delineated, consensus-driven model of a campaign structure that is responsive to and supported by all (or nearly all) the various segments of the California LGBT  and progressive activist communities.

I would also note that the two putative (and abortive) attempts by Love Honor Cherish to repeal Proposition 8 (in 2009 and in 2011) by ballot measure did not meet ANY of these above three conditions. In fact, only one of these conditions has ever been met (Condition 2), briefly by Equality California. I suspect that by November 2012 Condition 1 will have been met.

Then again, it is not clear that a campaign to repeal Proposition 8 is necessary, thanks to the federal court case of Perry v Brown, which has declared that measure as violative of the United States Constitution and has been struck down by the two courts which have examined it, on August 4, 2010 and on February 7, 2012. Proposition 8 is currently only in effect due to a stay issued by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on August 16, 2010 as the heterosexual supremacists who are defending it ask for an 11-member en banc panel of that court to consider their appeal, and after that they can also appeal to the United States Supreme Court.

More comment about the new Field poll. They also ask the question about what kind of legal recognition should same-sex couples have and here the response is that now 51% support marriage equality, with another 29% supporting civil unions (or comprehensive domestic partnerships, which is what California law is right now) and a mere 15% support no legal recognition for same-sex couples (See Table 3, below). Note, this 51% is not a majority position when the margin of error is considered. It's curious what the difference is between the 59% who support "allowing same- sex couples to marry and having regular marriage laws apply to them" and the 51% who think that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry  (when given the option of civil unions and no recognition whatsoever).

This is all great news for supporters of marriage equality and just more evidence that the heterosexual supremacists are fighting a battle that they will lose; it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.

An interesting poll would to also ask specifically about a Proposition 8 re-do which Field last asked in March 2009 and the results were 48% Support Repeal, 47% Support Prop 8. But this was before even the California Supreme Court had upheld Prop 8 and two federal courts had struck it down. I wonder what the Proposition 8 re-do poll numbers are now? Inquiring minds want to know.

Now There Are 8 Out LGBT CA Legislators!

Assemblywoman Cathleen Gagliani (D)

Well, well! This is big news: California has regained it's #1 position as having the largest openly LGBT legislative caucus in  the country with the surprising announcement by Democratic Assemblymember Cathleen Galgiani that she is a lesbian.

Galgiani represents the 17th Assembly District in California, which is in a conservative Central Valley section of the state.

Her local newspaper, The Record has the scoop:

Assemblywoman Cathleen Galgiani is gay, she said Tuesday during an interview at The Record.

Galgiani, D-Livingston, said that by coming out now, she hopes to send a positive message to young people who are struggling to come to terms with their sexual identity

"It sickens me that young people would think about taking their lives because of who they are," Galgiani said. Galgiani, 47, said it was not until well into adulthood, after she was elected to represent the 17th Assembly District in 2006, that she knew she was gay.

This story will be pretty big in the next few days. California now has 8 openly LGBT legislators, the most of any state. It is fascinating that Galgiani would come out now, when she is running in a very competitive primary next year to join the State Senate, since she is now termed out of the Assembly.

Gov. Brown Signs Two Bills Outlining Transgender Protections

The legislative session in California has come to a close and Governor Brown is busy signing or vetoing bills that made it through the Democratically controlled legislature.

Two bills that are of great interest to the LGBT community are Assembly Bill 433 and Assembly Bill 887.

The Transgender Law Center trumpeted the enactment of the bills into law (and explained what they do):

These laws have been years in the making.  Through our statewide survey of almost 650 transgender Californians, the 1,200 calls that our legal team receives annually and our conversations with you at events around the state, we discovered two problems that continued to resurface: We found that California's nondiscrimination laws were often not accessible to those who needed them the most. Employers, health care providers, housing authorities - even transgender and gender non-conforming people - were unaware that it is illegal to discriminate against transgender Californians. Our legal rights were hidden within the definition of "gender", leaving many people in the dark about their rights, and many institutions out of compliance responsibilities. This had an especially severe impact on low-income and trans communities of color who tend to face employment discrimination at higher frequencies within transgender communities.   We heard from many transgender people who were unable to change their birth certificates and other identity documents due to financial and medical barriers. Onerous and outdated standards for court-ordered gender changes created unfair and damaging barriers that disproportionately impacted trans people of color, immigrant trans people, low-income trans people and others who could not overcome the many hurdles to securing basic identity documents. These are identity documents we all need to work, travel, and be our authentic selves. With the help of your input and our partners at Equality California and GSA Network, we came up with two legislative solutions to these problems. The Gender Nondiscrimination Act (AB 887) takes existing protections based on gender and spells out "gender identity and expression" as their own protected categories in our nondiscrimination laws. By making these protections explicit, people will more clearly understand California's nondiscrimination laws, which should increase the likelihood that employers, schools, housing authorities, and other institutions will work to prevent discrimination and/or respond more quickly at the first indications of discrimination. The Vital Statistics Modernization Act (AB 433) will alleviate the confusion, anxiety and even danger that transgender people face when we have identity documents that do not reflect who we are. The bill will streamline current law and clarify that eligible petitioners living or born in California can submit gender change petitions in the State of California. The Vital Statistics Modernization Act conforms California's standards to the standards set by the United States Department of State for gender changes on passports, and it makes common-sense changes to the law that ensure the process is simple for qualified petitioners to navigate.

It should be noted that California law already prohibited discrimination against transgender individuals but because the words "gender identity" or "gender expression" did not appear in the most common places in the California code lawyers would look these anti-discrimination protections were not well publicized or well-understood.

The new laws make it explicitly clear that California's non-discrimination laws also cover transgender residents.

BREAKING NEWS! Palencia Steeping Down As EQCA Head

Late today it was announced that my friend, Roland Palencia, has decided to step down as executive director of Equality California, effective Friday October 14.

I gave Roland a call and he told me that it is entirely his decision to step down (despite being named head of the organization a mere 5 months ago); he is not being pushed out by the board. He called it a "personal decision" and said that his priority is making sure that the community rallies around EQCA, which he called a "valuable and important organization." I'm sad that my friend will no longer be leading California's largest LGBT political organization but wish him well in his future endeavors and realize he has to do what is best for him.

Here's the official press release:

     

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 10, 2011

CONTACT: Rebekah Orr, Equality CaliforniaPHONE: 415-498-0847 EMAIL: rebekah@eqca.org

EQCA Executive Director Roland Palencia to Step Down From Post Friday, October 14

(San Francisco) Equality California (EQCA) announced today that Executive Director Roland Palencia will step down as of Friday, October 14. Palencia was selected to succeed long-time Executive Director Geoff Kors in May of this year. 
"Equality California serves a critical role in the movement for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) equality in the state of California," said Palencia. "Over the next year, the movement in California faces a unique set of challenges that demands leadership uniquely positioned to take those challenges head-on, strengthen the organization and bring together the diverse parts of our movement into a powerful force for change. It's been my privilege to serve as the Executive Director of Equality California and I will continue to be an avid and involved supporter of EQCA and its work for equality."
Equality California will release a transition plan by the end of this week.
"During his tenure with Equality California, Roland Palencia did important work to build diverse and inclusive coalitions and engage and reconnect our movement," said Cathy Schwamberger, Equality California Institute Board Chair. "That work has helped to position our movement to fight back against attacks on the LGBT community and protect advances in equality--the effects of which will impact our movement for years to come. We are grateful for his service to Equality California and his contributions to our movement and wish him the best in all of his future endeavors."
For more information on Equality California sponsored legislation, please visit:www.eqca.org/legislation.Equality California (EQCA) is the largest statewide lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender rights advocacy organization in California. Over the past decade, Equality California has strategically moved California from a state with extremely limited legal protections for LGBT individuals to a state with some of the most comprehensive civil rights protections in the nation. Equality California has passed more than 80 pieces of legislation and continues to advance equality through legislative advocacy, electoral work, public education and community empowerment. www.eqca.org

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EQCA: No Go On Prop 8 Re-Do In '12

Well! Equality California has finally acknowledged a repeal effort of 2008's Proposition 8 is not going to happen in 2012:

Equality California said that while public opinion on marriage for same-sex couples has increased since Proposition 8 passed in 2008, support continues to hover near 50 percent—indicating more work must be done before asking voters to overturn Proposition 8 through what would inevitably be  a very expensive and difficult campaign. In addition, the Perry v. Brown legal challenge to Proposition 8 has provided hope that the freedom to marry can be restored in California and create a legal precedent to protect marriage without the potential risks and expense of a multi-million dollar campaign in these very trying economic times. 

"With a challenge to Prop 8’s discrimination now before the courts, Freedom to Marry supports Equality California’s decision to forego a ballot campaign in 2012,” said Evan Wolfson, founder and President of Freedom to Marry. ”Freedom to Marry will continue to work with Equality California and our many other partners to engage Californians in the crucial conversations necessary to grow the pro-marriage majority and permanently restore the freedom to marry in California as soon as possible."

“We share the pain, frustration and discrimination that California same-sex couples and their families experience every day because they are denied the freedom to marry,” Palencia said. “Today, we are recommitting ourselves to doing the hard work of changing hearts and minds to be ready to change that reality should the courts fail to do their job.” 

Although I only live part-time in California, I am still registered to vote there, and I support the decision not to move forward with a ballot measure, especially since there will almost definitely be marriage equality fights in Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina and Oregon next year.

CA Legislature Passes Gender Equality Bill

Excellent news from California. Although our state already has the strongest LGBT protections available under state law in the country, there are always was to improve. The State Senate put the last touches on AB 887, the Gender Non Discrimination Act, authored by out lesbian Assemblymember Toni Atkins of San Diego, by passing it by a vote of 25-13 this week.

San Diego Gay and Lesbian News reports:

AB 887 protects all Californians. No matter your skin color, your age, where you come from or whether you're gay, straight, or transgender, we are all protected by the same rights," Atkins said. 

"We share equal protection in employment, housing, and education. This bill ensures that no one is left out."AB 887 seeks to strengthen employment, housing, and other civil rights protections for all Californians, particularly those who face discrimination based on gender identity and expression. 

While California anti-discrimination laws already define "gender" to include a person's gender identity and gender expression, AB 887 explicitly enumerates gender identity and expression as protected categories in a number of state codes to provide clarity to those who are victims of unlawful discrimination as well as for business owners, employers and other entities required to comply with the anti-discrimination protections.

I presume Governor Jerry Brown will happily sign the bill into law soon.

WATCH: EQCA Responds To FRC Lies About FAIR Education Act

There is an attempt being made to have California voters vote on a referendum to overturn this year's FAIR Education Act in a June 2012 election. The FAIR Education Act (SB 48) is a law passed by the state legislature and signed into law by Governor Brown which insures that LGBT, people of color and people with disabilities are included in educational social studies curricula. The Family Research Council joined the fight on the side of the heterosexual supremacists who think that any inclusion of homosexuality in schools must be indoctrination. Equality California, the state's largest LGBT political advocacy organization struck back with a video response of their own within days. In the video response, EQCA rolls Tony Perkins video and then stops it when he lies (which is often) or uses scare tactics (also often) to attempt to persuade viewers that the FAIR Education Act is something it is not.
Watch it!
Hat/tip to TowleRoad.