POLL: Most AL, MS Republicans Are Racist Idiots

Today is Republican primary election day in Alabma and Mississippi.

Here are some  poll results of questions asked of Republican primary voters in
 Mississippi:

and Alabama:

which indicate that majorities of respondents in those two states do not believe in evolution (66% and 60%) and believe Barack Obama is not a Christian (88% and 86%).

How else can one describe these results but to characterize them as indicators of bigotry and ignorance?

Hat/tip to Dave Weigel of Slate Magazine.

Saturday Politics: California In Red, Blue and Purple

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has a new analysis of California voters which splits the electorate not along partisan lines but along liberal-conservatives lines. Since California's electoral system is being rocked by dual political earthquakes of the incorporation of a Top 2 Primary system (the top 2 finalists in the June 2012 primary election regardless of vote totals or party affiliations will face off on the November 2012 ballot) as well as the impact of legislative districts for Assembly, Senate and U.S. House drawn by a non-partisan citizen redistricting commission The impact of these two reforms will be huge and may necessitate a change in the typical Democrat-Republican analysis of elections. PPIC used five categories of voters (loyal liberal, moderately liberal, conservative liberal, moderate conservative, committed conservative) which they define as:

Loyal Liberal: Very liberal on both social and fiscal issues (18% of the state’s population);

Moderate Liberal: Moderately liberal on both social and fiscal issues (24%);

Conservative Liberal: Conservative on social issues and moderately liberal on fiscal issues (25%);

Moderate Conservative: Moderately liberal on social issues and conservative on fiscal issues (17%);

Committed Conservative: Conservative on both social and fiscal issues (15%).

The graphic above demonstrates the geographic distribution of these kinds of voters. In the report, PPIC notes that every geographic section of the state has drifted ideologically towards Democratic positions except for the inland sections.

The report ends with this these thoughts about 2012 and California's political future:

California may tend to vote for Democratic presidential candidates , but many places around the state espouse views that fall to the right of the Democratic Party’s typical positions. In fact, only the Bay Area is home to extraordinarily large numbers of people who hold opinions associated with the Democratic Party.

This could signal an opportunity for Republicans. Moderate Liberal and Conservative Liberal places contain half the state’s population and seem sympathetic to many conservative positions—yet they tend to support the Democratic Party. Still, altering this status quo could prove difficult. The small number of liberal Republicans in every part of the state implies that the party's electoral coalition is ideologically solid—but that may also make the party resistant to expansion efforts. Only time will tell.

Regardless, California’s 2012 election promises to be exciting and unpredictable. Given the inherent tensions between ideology and partisanship in much of California, the political geography that emerges after the election could look very different from the current landscape.

Very interesting stuff! I encourage you to read the entire thing, "California Political Geography," by Eric McGhee and Daniel Krimm.

PPIC Poll Says 56% Of CA Likely Voters Support Marriage Equality

Wow! The good polling news on marriage equality just keeps on coming. As this is a presidential election year, it is not surprising that there is a lot of polling going on, and I suspect more and more polls will be including the marriage equality question. Just last week we heard from the Field Poll that 59% of Californians support marriage equality (compared to just 34% who do not), the largest lead (25 points) and highest level of support for same-sex marriage ever recorded in the state by the most trusted name in California polling.

The latest poll is from PPIC and says that 52% of registered voters support allowing same-sex marriage, compared to 41% who don't a margin of +11 for the supporters of equality, which is identical to what the PPIC poll showed last September. Of course the grain of salt here is that the margin of error of the PPIC poll is ±3.8 points, so technically we can not be sure that a majority of registered voters in California support marriage equality. We can however be sure that there are more supporters of marriage equality than people who oppose it.

PPIC also attempts to sample "likely voters," and among this group support for marriage equality is even higher, at 56% with a mere 38%expressing opposition. This is a margin of +18 for the forces for equality. The margin of error on this statistic is ±4.2 points, so this time, according to PPIC, a majority of Californians likely to vote in the June 2012 primary support marriage equality (see figure, below).

Equality California immediately sent out a statement about the new poll which included the graphic at the top of this post highlighting the improvement in the "likely voter" statistic on the question of marriage in the last 3 years.

This was a somewhat curious move, since no one in California is going to be voting on the question of marriage equality anytime soon, since there is no organized effort to put a Proposition 8 repeal measure on the November 2012 ballot due to the fact that the Perry v Brown litigation about the constitutionality of California's same-sex marriage ban is still tied up in the federal courts and is unlikely to be resolved before June 2013 (at the earliest!)

All that being said, two polls within two weeks indicating near-majority support for marriage equality and at the very least significant, double-digit leads for the pro-equality forces are very encouraging and good news!

POLL: Majority of Maine Voters Want Marriage Equality

Joe.My.God highlights a new Public Policy Polling poll of Maine voters which has very encouraging news for supporters of marriage equality. As you may recall, Maine is trying to become the first state in the history of the United States to enact marriage equality by a public vote of the people. In 2009, Maine voters rejected a referendum on a marriage equality law called Question 1 by a margin of 53% to 47%.

However, the new poll from PPP shows that Maine voters now support a law allowing "marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedom by ensuring no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of their religious beliefs" by a margin of 47% to 32% with 21% undecided.

The more important question is that in the more basic question of "In general, do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?" a whopping 54% say it should be illegal compared to 41% who say it should be illegal.

Happily, the margin of error is a mere ±2.8 points, so this demonstrates a clear majority of Maine voters support marriage equality. This does not guarantee that the forces of good will win the electoral campaign to enact marriage at the ballot boxm, but it dramatially illustrates the difference in the terrain LGBT advocates now face in making their case for marriage equality to all voters.

POLL: Marriage Equality Support Leads 49% to 40%

A new national poll from the NBC/Wall Street Journal shows that support for marriage equality nationwide is still leading the opposition outside of the margin of error (which is ±3.5 points), with 49% supporting and 40% opposing.

As LGBT Think Progress notes, this demonstrates a huge swing from exactly 8 years ago when only 30% supported marriage equality and 62% opposed it.

Some other key findings in the poll are that the number of people who know someone personally who is gay or lesbian is now up to 64% (from 62%), and 3% of the sample self-identifies as gay or lesbian, with 15% saying the gay/lesbian person they know is a friend, 23% say it is a family member and 26% say it is a co-worker.

POLL: Openly Gay RI Congressman Likely To Lose Seat

There is very bad news for the re-election prospects of Freshman Democratic Congressman David Cicilline of Rhode Island, the fourth openly gay member of the 112th Congress in a new poll released by WPRI.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) - Congressman David Cicilline is headed for a double-digit defeat at the hands of Republican Brendan Doherty unless he finds a way to win back a large number of voters by November, according to an exclusive WPRI 12 poll released Monday evening.

The new survey of 250 registered voters in Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District shows Doherty, a former state police superintendent, would defeat Cicilline 49% to 34%, with 16% of voters undecided. Doherty's lead over Cicilline has grown by two points since the last WPRI 12 poll in May.

It's not clear that the sexual orientation of Cicilline is what is causing his political difficulties. He seems to be instead suffering an extreme backlash from a scandal which occurred when he was the Mayor of Providence, R.I.

Analysis of Field Poll Showing 59% Support Marriage Equality

The latest Field Poll is out and it has some encouraging news for supporters of marriage equality in California. By a margin of 25 points, 59% to 34%, California registered voters support "same-sex marriage," a jump of 7  points in support from the last Field poll taken in July 2010 which had the margin at a mere 9 points, 51% to 42%. The margin of error of these polls is ±4.5 percentage points.

Although this is very good news that the most respected polling outfit in California is showing support for marriage equality well above the majority position, it should be noted that 1) Field has a history of overstating supporting for the pro-equality side and 2) this is a poll of registered voters, which means it is essentially meaningless in predicting the outcome of a voter initiative on the measure.

First I will elaborate on my first point (Field has overestimated marriage equality support in the past). In 2008, during the fight to defeat Proposition 8 and defend California marriage equality from June 15 to November 4 (173 days) the Field poll issued 3 polls, all of which had the NO side ahead, often by significant margins. On September 19, 2008 Field said Proposition 8 was losing 55% No, 38% Yes among likely voters, On August 29, 2008 the Field Poll said Proposition 8 was losing 54% No to 40% Yes among likely voters and on its first poll on the issue on July 19, 2008 Field said that Proposition 8 was losing 51% No to 42% among likely voters. According to David Flesicher's exhaustive (and definitive) analysis of the campaign published in The Prop 8 Report, the internal polls of the No On 8 campaign NEVER had the No side above 48% of support, although their daily tracking polling did sometimes have the No side slightly ahead of the Yes side when the Undecided number would get larger. Once the "Princes" ad ran on California television for 10 days without a response Proposition 8 was ahead outside the margin of error. Field has never explained why their polling was so off on the Proposition 8 question, which ultimately passed by a margin of Yes 52.3%, No 47.7%.

My second point is to note that this is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters. It is true that it does not make sense to even speak about likely voters at this point, more than 8 months before the general election, but I want to clarify that there is always a difference between polling the set of all possible voters, and the results created when the subset of voters who actually go to the polls (or return their absentee ballots) and vote. However, the fact that we finally have one data point where majority support for marriage equality has been reached OUTSIDE the margin of error, bring us closer to the pre-conditions for when I would support an attempt to place a ballot measure to repeal Proposition 8.

I repeat those conditions here, for completeness:

1. multiple polls separated in time of weeks or months indicating clear majority support for marriage equality among registered voters;
2. at least one million dollars in the bank to begin a campaign; and 
3. a clearly delineated, consensus-driven model of a campaign structure that is responsive to and supported by all (or nearly all) the various segments of the California LGBT  and progressive activist communities.

I would also note that the two putative (and abortive) attempts by Love Honor Cherish to repeal Proposition 8 (in 2009 and in 2011) by ballot measure did not meet ANY of these above three conditions. In fact, only one of these conditions has ever been met (Condition 2), briefly by Equality California. I suspect that by November 2012 Condition 1 will have been met.

Then again, it is not clear that a campaign to repeal Proposition 8 is necessary, thanks to the federal court case of Perry v Brown, which has declared that measure as violative of the United States Constitution and has been struck down by the two courts which have examined it, on August 4, 2010 and on February 7, 2012. Proposition 8 is currently only in effect due to a stay issued by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on August 16, 2010 as the heterosexual supremacists who are defending it ask for an 11-member en banc panel of that court to consider their appeal, and after that they can also appeal to the United States Supreme Court.

More comment about the new Field poll. They also ask the question about what kind of legal recognition should same-sex couples have and here the response is that now 51% support marriage equality, with another 29% supporting civil unions (or comprehensive domestic partnerships, which is what California law is right now) and a mere 15% support no legal recognition for same-sex couples (See Table 3, below). Note, this 51% is not a majority position when the margin of error is considered. It's curious what the difference is between the 59% who support "allowing same- sex couples to marry and having regular marriage laws apply to them" and the 51% who think that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry  (when given the option of civil unions and no recognition whatsoever).

This is all great news for supporters of marriage equality and just more evidence that the heterosexual supremacists are fighting a battle that they will lose; it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.

An interesting poll would to also ask specifically about a Proposition 8 re-do which Field last asked in March 2009 and the results were 48% Support Repeal, 47% Support Prop 8. But this was before even the California Supreme Court had upheld Prop 8 and two federal courts had struck it down. I wonder what the Proposition 8 re-do poll numbers are now? Inquiring minds want to know.

POLL: Iowa Voters Oppose Marriage Equality Repeal

A new poll from the Des Moines Register  illustrates that even if Iowan voters were given the opportunity to vote on the legality of their fellow citizens' marriages (which is unlikely to happen) a majority of them would oppose a ban on same-sex marriage being added to the state constitution.

According to the poll 56% oppose the same-sex marriage ban while 38% support it.

The poll also asks about the unanimous Iowa State Supreme Court decision Varnum v. Brien which legalized marriage equality in April 2009. On that front the results are less supportive of equality with 30% favoring the decision and 36% opposing it while a full 33% of the respondents "don't care much" either way.
The poll was taken February 12-15 and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Because the Democrats control the Iowa State Senate (by a slim majority of one vote!), there is no way that a constitutional amendment will be presented to the Iowa voters before 2015 (a constitutional amendment has to be passed by two consecutive sessions of the Iowa Legislature before it can appear before voters).

POLL: Majority of Maryland Supports Marriage Equalty

The Washington Post published a poll on Tuesday which demonstrates the inexorable growth in the support for marriage equality in the state of marriage, indicating that it has reached majority support for the first time. 50% of respondents support marriage equality compared to 44% which oppose it.

The new poll found a sharp divide among Maryland Democrats based on race. Among whites, 71 percent support same-sex marriage, while 24 percent do not. Among blacks, 41 percent are supportive, while 53 percent are opposed. Maryland has the largest percentage of African Americans of any state outside of the Deep South.

[...]

The poll found that nearly three-quarters of those opposed to gay nuptials say their views stem primarily from their religious beliefs — a factor that makes lobbying on the issue more challenging.

By contrast, only 5 percent of same-sex marriage supporters say their views are largely shaped by religious beliefs. 

[...]

The Post poll found that among adult residents younger than 40, support for same-sex marriage is 63 percent, with 33 percent opposed. Among those 40 and older, 42 percent are in favor, while 51 percent are opposed.

Note that phrase again: 74% of people who oppose providing civil marriage licenses to same-sex couples cite their religious beliefs as a reason for their opposition. What part of civil marriage do they not understand? Just because someone has a marriage which your religion does not support or sanction is no reason to impose your religious beliefs in an area of public policy which applies to everyone. Civil marriages  are completely separate from church (mosque/temple) weddings!

It is so mind-boggling to me that religious people never think that they could be discriminated against because of their religious beliefs but they have no qualms about discriminating against other people who do NOT share their religious beliefs. Have they never heard of the golden rule (do unto others as they would do unto you)?

O Flying Spaghetti Monster, this just makes me so happy that I'm an atheist!

College Frosh Overwhelmingly Support Marriage Equality

Interesting news about how badly heterosexual supremacists like the National Organization for Marriage (NOM) are losing the cultural war on marriage equality with the next generation. A new survey of incoming freshman students at the nation's college from the prestigious Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA shows overwhelming (and increasing) support for marriage equality among college students:

An unprecedented 71.3 percent of incoming college students indicated that same-sex couples should have the right to legal marital status, compared with 64.9 percent in 2009, a remarkable 6.4 percentage-point increase over a two-year period. While support for same-sex marriage is highest among female students and those who identify as liberal, a significant amount of conservative students (42.8 percent) and an increasing number of male students (64.1 percent in 2011 vs. 56.7 percent in 2009) expressed support for this issue.

And they are not just liberal on marriage equality but other important issues:

Students also demonstrated more progressive attitudes about policies that give students from disadvantaged backgrounds preferential treatment in college admissions. Despite the increasingly competitive admissions environment, which has resulted in fewer students gaining acceptance to their first-choice college (76.0 percent in 2011 vs. 78.9 percent in 2010), the number of students supporting preferential treatment in college admissions rose from 37.4 percent in 2009 to 42.1 percent in 2011, a 4.7 percentage-point increase. 

In another finding with important implications in the current political climate, fewer students said they believe that undocumented students should be denied access to public education. Since the question was last asked in 2009, opposition to educational access for these students dropped by 4.2 percentage points, from 47.2 percent to 43.0 percent in 2011. While liberal students are much more likely to support undocumented students' access to education, 39.0 percent of conservative students also indicated their support. 

I often wonder why people like NOM are fighting so fanatically to deny equal marriage rights to same-sex couples when the writing has been on the wall for years that the public opinion is rapidly moving against them and that eventually no one will care about this issue because marriage will be open to all committed couples.

Why do you think people are fighting to maintain a discriminatory policy that they must know will be swept away in the sands of time eventually?

Hat/tip to LGBT Think Progress.

NM: Plurality Support For Marriage Equality

A new PPP poll out of New Mexico shows that more people support marriage equality than oppose it. The key questions are:

Q7 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal ...................... .45%
Illegal ..................... .43%
Not sure ................. .12%

Q8 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship?
Gay couples should
be allowed to legally
marry.......................42%
Gay couples should
be allowed to form
civil unions but not
marry.......................25%
There should be no
legal recognition of
a gay couple's
relationship .............32%
Not sure ................. . 2%

Thus New Mexico joins other Western states like Colorado and Nevada where other recent polls show plurality support for marriage equality. Unfortunately, unless and until polls start showing majority support for marriage equality (outside the margin of error, which in this case was +/-4.4 points) the LGBT community is unlikely to have a decent chance winning a ballot measure fight to end civil marriage discrimination against same-sex couples.

POLL: Huge Majority Supports LGBT Workplace Equality

A new poll commissioned by Human Rights Campaign confirms that the vast majority of Americans believes that employment discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity should be illegal.

The poll found a vast majority (77 percent) of voters support protecting LGBT people from discrimination in employment.  The support for employment protections defies conventional political wisdom, reaching across party and ideological lines.  Seventy percent of self-identified Republicans and 67 percent of conservatives support anti-discrimination laws.  Support is strong even among groups who tend to be less supportive of LGBT issues, such as seniors (69 percent among voters over age 65), those with a high school degree or less (68 percent), observant Christians (77 percent), born-again Christians (74 percent), and residents of the Deep South (72 percent). 

In a finding showing a need for more public outreach and education for employment non-discrimination laws, most voters believe anti-discrimination laws already exist.  Eighty-seven percent of voters believe it is illegal under federal law to fire someone for being gay and 78 percent believe it is illegal under state law.  Even in states without anti-discrimination laws, 75 percent of voters think it is illegal under state law to fire someone for being gay or lesbian. 

Of course there is pending federal legislation called the Employment Non-Discrimination Act which would actually make the law comport with what most people believe the law is already: illegal to fire workers because they are LGBT.

But it is absolutely unlikely to pass Congress while the Republicans control the majority of the U.S. House.

POLL: Californians Favor Marriage Equality (Barely)

A new poll again shows that Californians strongly support legal protections and state recognition of same-sex couples but are also closely divided on the question of whether to allow such unions to be given the legal name "marriages."

Public Policy Polling did a statewide poll of 500 California voters between November 10-13 which had the following questions:

Q11 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal............................................................... 48%
Illegal .............................................................. 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q12 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ..............................................................43%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry .......................................35%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple's relationship .......................................21%
Not sure .......................................................... 1%

The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. This is more evidence that people who think that 2012 is the right time to attempt to repeal Proposition 8 are fooling themselves. I do think that there are more Californians who support marriage equality than not, but the polling shows that the difference is well within the margin of error.

One of my pre-conditions for attempting a Proposition 8 repeal by ballot measure is multiple polls of likely voters which indicate majority support for marriage equality outside of the margin of error. That polling result is yet to occur in California, though I do believe it will happen soon. (By the way, the other pre-conditions are: A 7-figure amount in the bank at the beginning of a ballot measure campaign AND a public, published plan with a representational organizational structure for the entity which will manage the ballot measure campaign.)

Approval of Congress Hits Single Digits (9%!)

Godless Wednesday: Americans' Discomfort With Atheist President

The Friendly Atheist has a great post up today discussing the new poll results from the Public Religion Research Institute which demonstrate that Americans would be more uncomfortable with an atheist President than a Mormon President or a Muslim President!

Friendly Atheist takes a closer look at the graphic above and provides the following analysis:

67% of all voters would feel somewhat or very uncomfortable with an atheist president.80% of all Republicans, 70% of Democrats, and 56% of all Independents feel the same.So Democrats would be more uncomfortable with an atheist president than a Muslim president.
Republicans — not surprisingly, a higher proportion of them than Democrats — would be equally uncomfortable with both an atheist president and a Muslim president.
Overall, though, a non-theistic presidential candidate has a bigger hurdle to overcome than a person of any faith at all. It’s unbelievable that in this day and age, America still has this much of a hangup over a leader who would put more weight in evidence and logical thinking than in an imaginary god and ancient books.

Hear, hear! Friendly Atheist also notes that 31% of Americans would be somewhat or very comfortable with an atheist president while 33% of Americans would be somewhat or very comfortable with a Muslim president.

His suggestion to change these numbers is to encourage more people (and people who run for office) to come clean about their lack of faith and their belief in free-thinking instead of wishful thinking.

This is my first post in what is hopefully going to be a weekly series focusing on atheism and agnosticism and the foibles and failures of faith. I'd love to hear feedback from readers about Godless Wednesdays. Suggestions for a better title would be welcomed!

POLL: Americans Supports Trans Equality

There is excellent news about a new poll which bolsters the case for strong transgender civil rights protections.

The Public Religion Research Institute concluded:

Overwhelming majorities of Americans agree that transgender people should have the same general rights and legal protections as others.*

·              Approximately 9-in-10 (89%) Americans agree that transgender people deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans.

·                     Overwhelming majorities of all major religious groups agree that transgender people should have the same rights and protections as other Americans, including approximately 8-in-10 (83%) white evangelical Protestants, and roughly 9-in-10 Catholics (93%), white mainline Protestants (90%), and the unaffiliated (95%).

·                     Overwhelming majorities of Republicans (86%), Independents (94%), and Democrats (92%) also agree.

·              More than 8-in-10 (81%) Americans agree that legal protections for gay and lesbian people should also include transgender people.

Approximately three-quarters of Americans both say Congress should pass employment nondiscrimination laws to protect transgender people, and favor Congress’s recent expansion of hate crimes legislation to protect transgender people.

·              Three-quarters of Americans agree that Congress should pass laws to protect transgender people from job discrimination.

·                     Solid majorities of every major religious group agree that Congress should pass laws to protect transgender people from job discrimination, including nearly two-thirds (65%) of white evangelical Protestants.

·                     A majority (55%) of Republicans agree that Congress should pass laws to protect transgender people from job discrimination, as do overwhelming majorities of Independents (79%) and Democrats (86%).

·              Approximately three-quarters (74%) of Americans also favor Congress’ recent expansion of federal hate crime laws to include crimes committed on the basis of the victim’s gender, sexual orientation or gender identity, compared to only 22% who oppose.

·                     Solid majorities of every major religious group favor Congress’ recent expansion of hate crimes legislation to include gender identity. White evangelical Protestants demonstrate the lowest support, but nearly two-thirds (64%) of this group favor including gender identity in hate crimes laws.

·                     A majority of Republicans (56%) and approximately 8-in-10 Independents (79%) and Democrats (84%) also agree.

Approximately two-thirds of Americans both report being well informed about transgender people and issues, and generally understand what the term “transgender” means.

·              Two-thirds of Americans agree that they feel well informed about transgender persons and issues, while 3-in-10 disagree.

·              In order to determine whether Americans understood the term “transgender,” PRRI conducted a follow-up survey in September 2011 that asked respondents to report what the term “transgender” meant to them in their own words. Among the 91% of Americans who report that they have heard of the term transgender, 76% give an essentially accurate definition. Thus, overall, more than two-thirds (69%) of Americans are able to identify what the term “transgender” means without any assistance.

·                     Forty-six percent define a transgender person as someone who switches from one gender to another, either generally (39%) or through a medical procedure (7%).

·                     Eleven percent define a transgender person as someone who lives like the opposite gender (6%) or identifies more with the opposite gender (5%).

·                     Ten percent describe a transgender person as someone who is born the wrong sex or born in the wrong body.

·                     Nine percent define a transgender person as someone who has identified with both genders.

·              The following are examples of verbatim responses:

·                     “A person who feels like they are more like the other sex”

·                     “It’s someone born one sex, and they think they’re another”

·                     “Generally someone who thinks they are in the wrong body”

·              Eleven percent of Americans say that they have a close friend or family member who is transgender, compared to 58% who say that they have a close friend or family member who is gay or lesbian.

POLL: Support for Marriage Equality in Maine

Well, well! Despite being rejected at the polls on election day 2009 when Maine's Question 1 (voiding that state's recently passed marriage equality law) was approved by voters 53% to 47%, marriage equality is now enjoying majority support in the state as the 2012 federal elections approach, and Equality Maine considers going back to the ballot with a marriage equality measure.

A new poll from PPP shows that 51% of Maine respondents think that same-sex marriage should be legal, but before one gets too confident, I would point out that this is within the margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points of this poll (673 voters contacted between 10/28-10/31/2011).So, it is true that more Maine voters support marriage equality than oppose it, but the poll does not indicate majority support for marriage equality in Maine yet. Hopefully, that will be the case one year from now, on election day 2012!

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

Graphics Depict Gay Marriage Support 2001-2011

The Pew Forum has created these very useful slides depicting the public's change in opinion on marriage equality over the last decade.

Hat/tip to LGBT Think Progress.

Maryland Poll Shows Close Split On Marriage Equality

A recent poll of Marylanders shows that they are closely split on whether marriage equality should be the law of the Free State.

The Washington Post reports on the new poll:

The Gonzales poll found 48 percent of Marylanders who vote regularly favor a law allowing same-sex marriages, while 49 percent of that population are against allowing same-sex marriages.

There is a notable difference based on race. Fifty-one percent of white voters approve, compared to 41 percent of African-American voters. Meanwhile, 46 percent of white voters disapprove, compared to 59 percent of African Americans.

The opinion of voters could become particularly relevant if a same-sex marriage bill passes this session.

Opponents have vowed to take advantage of a provision in the state Constitution that allows citizens to petition just-passed laws to the ballot. With enough signatures, same-sex marriage would be subject to a statewide vote in November 2012.

This poll just goes to show tat just enacting a marriage equality law in Maryland will be less than half the battle, making sure that there is popular support for the measure, and that it goes into effect before a ballot battle is even more important. As things stand now, the good guys would lose the marriage equality battle at the ballot box in Maryland.

POLL: NC Anti-gay relationship amendment ahead 61-34

After years of being stopped by a Democratic majority in one House of the North Carolina legislature, a constitutional amendment to ban the recognition of "[any] domestic legal union between members of the same sex (i.e. same-sex marriages and domestic partnerships) was passed by the new Republican majority September 12th.

This week comes the bad news that despite a majority of North Carolinians either supporting marriage equality or domestic partnerships almost two-thirds support this virulently anti-gay constitutional amendment:

PPP's first look at the proposed marriage amendment in North Carolina since the legislature placed it on the ballot finds it leading 61-34. Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor of it (80/17) and independents (52/43) and Democrats (49/44) support it as well, although by more narrow margins.

The interesting thing is that 51% of this same set of voters supports legal recognition for gay couples. 22% favor gay marriage and another 29% civil unions, with only 46% completely opposed to granting same sex couples legal recognition.  The problem for those trying to defeat the amendment is that 37% of voters who support gay marriage or civil unions are still planning to vote for it.  That suggests a lot of folks aren't familiar with how wide reaching the proposed amendment would be and it gives those fighting it a chance- they just have to get their message out effectively to the majority of North Carolinians who do support legal recognition for gay couples that the proposal goes too far.

This is really a classic example of how small differences in poll question wording can lead to huge differences in how people respond. Last month we asked the following question "State legislators have proposed an amendment to the North Carolina Constitution that would prohibit the recognition of marriage, civil unions, or domestic partnerships for gay and lesbian couples. If the election was held today,would you vote for or against this amendment?" When you ask it that way only 30% of voters are supportive and 55% are opposed. Voters are against 'prohibiting' recognition for gay couples. But if you word it in such a way that all you're doing is defining marriage as between one man and one woman, voters are ok with that.  You're asking about the same thing in both cases, but the semantics make a huge difference and Republicans clearly know what they're doing with the language that's on the ballot.

One key group of voters those fighting the amendment will really have to reach out to is black Democrats. 70% of them support it to 25% opposed. White Democrats on the other hand oppose it by a 57/37 margin.

The only anti-gay marriage amendment to have been defeated was in Arizona, and it similarly attempted to ban both marriages and domestic partnerships. That measure failed in 2006 when senior citizen groups came out against the measure. But in that state the measure was actually stripping people of exstant domestic partnership benefits. I don't believe North Carolina has any state recognition of same-sex couples (or opposite-sex couples) outside of marriage, so the amendment is banning a "theoretical" problem which will be easy to demonize in  Bible Belt state.