Saturday Politics: California In Red, Blue and Purple

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has a new analysis of California voters which splits the electorate not along partisan lines but along liberal-conservatives lines. Since California's electoral system is being rocked by dual political earthquakes of the incorporation of a Top 2 Primary system (the top 2 finalists in the June 2012 primary election regardless of vote totals or party affiliations will face off on the November 2012 ballot) as well as the impact of legislative districts for Assembly, Senate and U.S. House drawn by a non-partisan citizen redistricting commission The impact of these two reforms will be huge and may necessitate a change in the typical Democrat-Republican analysis of elections. PPIC used five categories of voters (loyal liberal, moderately liberal, conservative liberal, moderate conservative, committed conservative) which they define as:

Loyal Liberal: Very liberal on both social and fiscal issues (18% of the state’s population);

Moderate Liberal: Moderately liberal on both social and fiscal issues (24%);

Conservative Liberal: Conservative on social issues and moderately liberal on fiscal issues (25%);

Moderate Conservative: Moderately liberal on social issues and conservative on fiscal issues (17%);

Committed Conservative: Conservative on both social and fiscal issues (15%).

The graphic above demonstrates the geographic distribution of these kinds of voters. In the report, PPIC notes that every geographic section of the state has drifted ideologically towards Democratic positions except for the inland sections.

The report ends with this these thoughts about 2012 and California's political future:

California may tend to vote for Democratic presidential candidates , but many places around the state espouse views that fall to the right of the Democratic Party’s typical positions. In fact, only the Bay Area is home to extraordinarily large numbers of people who hold opinions associated with the Democratic Party.

This could signal an opportunity for Republicans. Moderate Liberal and Conservative Liberal places contain half the state’s population and seem sympathetic to many conservative positions—yet they tend to support the Democratic Party. Still, altering this status quo could prove difficult. The small number of liberal Republicans in every part of the state implies that the party's electoral coalition is ideologically solid—but that may also make the party resistant to expansion efforts. Only time will tell.

Regardless, California’s 2012 election promises to be exciting and unpredictable. Given the inherent tensions between ideology and partisanship in much of California, the political geography that emerges after the election could look very different from the current landscape.

Very interesting stuff! I encourage you to read the entire thing, "California Political Geography," by Eric McGhee and Daniel Krimm.

Graphic: Gas Prices Hurt Red States More Than Blue

An analysis of the rise of gas prices shows that they do not affect blue states (those that lean or vote Democratic in presidential elections) and red states (those that lean or vote Republican in presidential elections) equally. Gas prices are actually lower on average in red states than blue states, but residents in red states pay more of their income on gas.

The disparities are stark: Wyoming drivers pay $3.21 per gallon while drivers in California pay $4.34. And, oddly enough, the differences line up well with partisan patterns — Houser found that blue states pay significantly higher prices per gallon than red states.

But here’s the catch: Red states may enjoy cheaper gasoline, but they also tend to be less dense and have less-efficient vehicles, and their residents tend to drive more miles each day. Wyoming residents may pay less per gallon, but they use more gallons of gasoline. And this is a consistent pattern: Houser found that deep-red states are actually shelling out more for gasoline as an overall percentage of their income.

So, I guess the important question is which effect will have a larger impact on the presidential election and whether the salience of the "gas prices" issue in political analysis will be diminished due to this analysis.

Hat/tip to Wonk Blog

Initiative To Abolish Death Penalty On CA Ballot

Interesting news! For the third time in 40 years, Californians will vote on whether they would like to abolish the state's death penalty, converting all capital sentences to life in prison without parole. Thanks to a new law signed by Governor Brown, all ballot measures must appear on November statewide general elections, not primary elections.

This will be the first time in over 20 years that Californians will be able to vote on the death penalty, which is has not been in effect since 2006 due to a court order.

The San Francisco Chronicle reports:

Opponents of capital punishment said Thursday they were submitting 800,000 signatures on petitions for an initiative to close the nation's largest Death Row, which has 725 condemned prisoners. The measure needs 504,760 valid signatures to make the ballot.

"California voters are ready to replace the death penalty with life in prison with no chance of parole," declared Jeanne Woodford, who oversaw four executions as warden of San Quentin State Prison. She now heads the anti-capital-punishment group Death Penalty Focus.

It was an unusually optimistic statement in a state whose residents have consistently supported the death penalty. The most recent Field Poll, in September, showed 68 percent support - although respondents in the same survey, when asked their preferred sentence for murder, backed life without parole over death, 48 to 40 percent.

MadProfessah has long been an opponent of capital punishment, not only because of its racially discriminatory application (Black people who kill white people are much more likely to get the death penalty than white people who kill black people) but due to the principle that the legal system can never be 100% accurate and the state should not kill people to show that killing people is wrong. I have been a member of Amnesty International since college, and it works to eliminate the death penalty around the world.

Looking forward to vote YES to eliminate the death penalty and replace it with a much more cost-effective life without parole. I hope all MadProfessah.com readers will join me in voting YES on this ballot measure!

1 Million Signatures On Recall Walker Petitions

Wisconsin Democrats submitted over one million signatures on petitions to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker today. Walker is infamous for sparking an intense partisan divide in Wisconsin by using a narrow Republican legislative majority to end collective bargaining rights for public employees in the state.

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports:

It would mark the first such gubernatorial recall in state history and would be only the third gubernatorial recall election in U.S. history. Organizers Tuesday also handed in 845,000 signatures against Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch as well as petitions against four GOP state senators including Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald of Juneau.

The sheer number of signatures being filed against Walker - nearly as many as the total votes cast for the governor in November 2010 and almost twice as many as those needed to trigger a recall election - ensure the election will be held, said officials with the state Democratic Party and United Wisconsin, the group that launched the Walker recall.

"It is beyond legal challenge," said Ryan Lawler, vice chairman of United Wisconsin.

The filing marks a milestone following Walker's controversial legislation ending most union bargaining for public workers. But Democrats have challenges before them to winning a recall election, including Walker's substantial fundraising and their lack of a candidate.

In addition, there were recall petitions filed for four Republican state senators. Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, Pam Galloway, Terry Moulton and Van Wanggaard. Last year there were 9 recall elections held in Wisconsin, 6 against Republicans and 3 against Democrats. The results were 5 wins by Democrats and 4 by Republicans ending up in changing the Wisconsin State Senate from 19-14 to 17-16.

Sunday Funnies: Explaining U.S. Dependence on Oil

Hat/tip to Daily Kos

UGH: "In God We Trust" Passes U.S. House 396-9

This is just sickening. The United States House of Representatives spent hundreds of thousands of dollars of staff and Members' time to debate and pass a meaningless measure (H.R. Con. 13) to reaffirm that the national motto is "In God We Trust" and that it should be publicly displayed. The vote was a depressing 396 to 9.

More disgustingly, only 9 Congressmembers had the guts to vote against the measure, including one Republican. Interestingly, of these 9 free thinkers three of them are my heroes: Judy Chu (API LGBT champion) and Jerrold Nadler (co-sponsor of the DOMA repeal bill) and Pete Stark (only acknowledged atheist in Congress). Interestingly, a Republican, Justin Amash also voted against the measure and gave a statement as to why which Joe.My.God highlights today.

The full roll call list of the 9 who voted No an the 2 who voted "present" are:

VOTING NO 

Ackerman 

Amash 

Chu 

Cleaver

Honda 

Johnson (GA) 

NadlerScott (VA) 

Stark

VOTING "PRESENT" 

Ellison 

Watt

It should also be noted that Mike Honda the co-sponsor of an immigration bill that would produce immigration equality for same-sex binational couples also voted against the meaningless theocratic measure. Keith Ellison is noteworthy because he is the only acknowledged Muslim member of Congress.

This vote incenses me so much that it just doubles my intention to refocus my efforts at highlighting issues of religious freedom, atheism, agnosticism (as well as the dangers of theocracy) at this blog, at least once a week, generally on Wednesdays.

Feingold Endorses Baldwin For Senate

Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold has announced that he is endorsing openly gay Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin to become the next U.S. Senator from Wisconsin.

Feingold has long been an advocate for strong Wall Street reform and cleaning up corporations -- he opposed the Dodd-Frank legislation because it didn't go far enough and called on Democrats to stop taking corporate contributions.

The only other non-incumbent endorsement Feingold has made in 2012 is his backing of Elizabeth Warren, who is running for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. In his email endorsement of Warren, Feingold also stressed that she "stood up against the Wall Street wish list of a bankruptcy bill" and would "keep fighting for middle class families on Capitol Hill."

"Tammy is a true progressive champion, one of the strongest fighters for working families our state has ever produced and a hero to those of us who believe in breaking barriers and eliminating injustice in our society," adds Feingold, who also asks supporters to contribute to the Baldwin campaign. "I was proud to call her a colleague as we fought together in Washington for Wisconsin families -- and I’ll be proud to call her my Senator."

Tammy Baldwin Announces U.S. Senate Bid!

Tammy Baldwin is an openly lesbian Congresswoman from Wisconsin (WI-02) who has never lost an election and is today announcing her historic bid to become the first openly LGBT member of the United States Senate! There have been openly LGBT candidates for U.S. Senate before, but no one as widely regarded as Baldwin, who is already polling ahead of potential rivals in the Democratic primary.
Baldwin has represented the Madison, WI area in Congress for over a dozen years and has always been an openly gay politician, becoming the first (and only) open lesbian to serve in the U.S. Congress.
You can bet MadProfessah will be following this race very closely, as well as contributing to the campaign in whatever ways I can. Tammy is the real deal, a progressive Democrat who recognizes LGBT issues as party of the tapestry of progressive politics.