INDIAN WELLS '12: Raja Wins 73rd ATP Title

Roger Federer continued his astonishing run of winning 6 out of 8 tournaments played since losing the 2011 US Open semifinals to Novak Djokovic by defeating John Isner 7-6(7) 6-3 in the final match of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. It was the 16-time major champion's 73rd ATP career title and record 4th title at this location (having previously won in it in 3 consecutive years 2004, 2005, and 2006). He has had 39 wins and only 2 losses in that period (to Djokovic and Isner).

More importantly, the win came one day after he defeated Rafael Nadal on an outdoor hardcourt for the first time since 2005. The 30-year-old now joins Nadal with a record 19 ATP Masters Shields. Federer won a cool $1 million for winning the 2012 BNP Paribas Open.

For American John Isner, his $500,000 finalist paycheck was the largest reward of his relatively short professional career. The 6'9" (or 6'10") player spent 4 years playing tennis at the University of Georgia before turning pro at age 22 four years ago. Isner had won his biggest victory of his career in the semifinal by defeating World #1 Novak Djokovic 7-6(7) 3-6 7-6(5). It was the first time an American male had defeated the reigning World #1 since James Blake beat Federer in the quarterfinals of the 2008 Beijing Olympics singles tournament.

The match itself was a nervy, tension-filled affair, with Federer facing (and saving) 3 breakpoints in his second service game of the first set. After that escape, Federer made a conscious effort to hit more winners with his forehand on the first strike. He ended the match with 12 errors and 29 winners (+17), while Isner was at 21 winners and 27 errors (-6).. In the inevitable tie-break, both players showed surprising tentativeness with Federer obtaining a lead and set point on his serve but failed to clinch. It wasn't until his 3rd set point that Federer was able to win the first set when  Isner made a forehand error into the net. The second set was less competitive, as Federer started using the tactic of slicing the ball to bring Isner into the net and passing him at will. Isner chances were also complicated because he never reached the amazing 140mph serving speeds from the day before, and Federer was able to easily serve out the match once he secured the hold.

INDIAN WELLS '12: Improbable Federer-Isner Final!

In a day of shocking upsets, John Isner won the biggest match of his life to become the first American male player in four years to defeat a  reigning #1 player in the world (Novak Djokovic) in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells 7-6(7) 3-6 7-6(5). With his win, Isner cemented his entry into the ATP Tour Top 10 for the first time, and also secured that he will receive the biggest paycheck of his tennis career on Sunday, where the finalist receives $500,000 and the Champion gets a cool $1 million.

Isner now has a win over World #1 Djokovic and World #3 Roger Federer (on clay in Switzerland in Davis Cup) for 2012 and will be playing in his very first ATP Masters Series final. Last year, Djokovic did not lose a second match until August 21 when he retired with a shoulder injury against Andy Murray in the Cincinnati Masters Final.

Semifinals Review
Djokovic did not play badly on Saturday but was clearly not at his best; his groundstrokes did not have the usual penetrating  pop (or accuracy) and he became uncharacteristically tentative at crucial moments in the match. After breaking Isner in the very first game, Djokovic served for the first set at 5-4 and opened the game with a momentum-sapping double fault which eventually resulted in dropping his serve and evening the opening set at 5-all. This gave Isner confidence and he was able to get to the tie-break where he served a string of 140-plus mph serves, including an ace on set point at 8-7 in the tiebreak. Djokovic, on the other hand, repeatedly refused to be aggressive from the ground late in the tension-filled tiebreak and paid the ultimate price. Djokovic was able to win the 2nd set when he broke Isner late in the set but he never looked completely comfortable and Isner was able to basically hold his own from the ground, even when he was not serving bombs (although the American did end with 21 aces on the day). So, it was not that big of a surprise when Isner finished his biggest win of his career to date with another ace in another tiebreak on his very first match point.

And that was just the warm-up match for Federer-Nadal XXVIII! Since Nadal owns an 18-9 advantage over Federer and a 5-1 in outdoor hard courts, not very many people expected this match to be competitive, predicting an easy win for the higher ranked player. The match ended up being postponed for 3 hours due to rain and when it started the wind was incredible, with gusts up to 25 mph. One would have thought the conditions would have made it even tougher for the play with the one-handed backhand, but for some reason Federer came out firing and quickly raced out to a 3-0 lead. Nadal fought back and evened up things at 3-all, but then Federer held serve and broke the Spaniard and served out the first set 6-3. In the second set, Federer broke early and nursed his serve to scores of 3-1 and 4-2 and then broke Nadal to go up 5-2 and serve for the match. Nadal promptly broke back and drizzle started to fall. However, Nadal was able to hold and so Federer served for the match for a second time at 5-4, rushing to finish the match before the deluge came. However, at 30-all, a long point ensued which was won by Federer to set up a match point when the skies opened up and play was stopped on match point for Federer (6-3, 5-4, 40-30). After 4 minutes the players resumed play and Federer served a 120-plus mph ace out wide to seal his first outdoor hard-court victory since the very first time he played Nadal in 2005. Federer improved to 10 wins out of 28 matches played, and nosed ahead in their hard-court head-to-head, getting a modicum of revenge for his 2012 Australian Open semifinal loss to his arch-nemesis.

Final Preview
Federer and Isner are two very improbable finalists at the 2012 BNP Paribas Masters at Indian Wells, since last year World #1 and World #2 played in the final and most people expected that would happen again, especially the organizers. I'm sure they are not disappointed the soon-to-be top ranked American is playing in his first Masters Series final at their tournament but again, probably very few people give him a chance to win.

Head-to-head, Federer and Isner have only played 3 times (2007, 2010 and 2012) in their career with the 30-year-old Swiss leading his 26-year-old American opponent 2-1, having won both the hard-court matches and inexplicably lost their indoor clay court match. Federer has been playing excellent tennis for quite awhile, and has won 5 of the last 7 tournaments he has played in. Federer has also shown that he is able to dismantle the game of hard-serving Americans before (*cough*Andy Roddick *cough*) but Isner is probably a smarter and more effective server now than Roddick was at his peak but he is a MUCH less agile mover, both characteristics attributable to his 6'9", 245-pound frame. If Isner has an incredible serving day, he could totally take the winning decision completely out of Federer's hands (similar to Federer's shocking loss at Wimbledon last year to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). It definitely helps Isner that he knows he CAN beat Federer, since he did it a little less than a month ago.

As a 16-time major champion Federer is playing for history (as usual); if he wins this match he will win his 4th Indian Wells Masters title, and tie Nadal at the top of the record books with 19 ATP Masters shields apiece. Federer has a very good record of 72 wins and 30 losses in ATP Tour finals compared to Isner's 3 wins and 5 losses. I just doubt whether Isner has the instinct to really dig deep and do what he needs to do to beat Federer in the biggest match of his life, one day after he just played and won the biggest match of his life, where regardless of what happens he will earn more money in one day (he is also playing in the doubles final!) then he won all year in several of his years on tour.

MadProfessah's Prediction: Federer.

INDIAN WELLS '12: Federer-Nadal XXVIII, Nole-Isner

John Isner celebrates his 6-3 1-6 7-5 win over Gilles Simon to reach
 the semifinals of the hard court ATP Masters Series tournament
 in Indian Wells and face World #1 Novak Djokovic 

The semifinals of the first hard court ATP Masters Series tournament of the year are set, and they include the usual suspects: the World's Top 3 players in the world Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer (who have a jaw-dropping 31 Grand Slam singles titles between them) and a curious interloper: World #11, 6'10" American John Isner.

Isner takes the 4th semifinal spot usually occupied by World #4 Andy Murray, who lost his first match here against a very in-form Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Isner will enter the Top 10 in the World if he wins his semifinal match, but he faces World #1, 5-time major champion and 2011 Indian Wells defending champion Novak Djokovic. Isner has never beaten Djokovic in his career, although the two have only played twice, in 2010. Even though Isner is a much better player now, so is Djokovic, and he should prevail to defend his title on Sunday.

Federer-Nadal XVIII is not as highly anticipated this time because the two great players have already met this year (in the semifinals of the 2012 Australian Open) and the career head-to-head is so slanted towards Nadal (18-9), although the hard-court head-to-head record is now dead even at 5-5, thanks to Nadal's wins last year at the 2011 Miami Masters and the 2012 Australian Open. In indoor hard courts Federer leads 4-0 but Nadal leads 5-1 in outdoor hard courts. Federer has looked slightly off his game, possibly ill from the dreaded stomach virus which has claimed many victims (Gael Monfils, Francesca Schiavone, Mike Bryan, and many others) at this year's tournament. However, he played excellent tennis to dispatch Juan Martin del Potro 6-3 6-2 for the fourth time in 2012.

Nadal is playing at a very high level this week, eager to get his chance to contest his 8th consecutive final against Djokovic (0-7!) and has reached the doubles final with compatriot Marc Lopez (where he will face Isner and Sam Querrey). In his quarterfinal match, Nadal was two points from defeat against a resurgent David Nalbandian, who demonstrated once again that he has one of the best backhands in the game but ultimately succumbed 4-6 7-5 6-4 in one of the best matches of the year so far. The match-up on an outdoor hardcourt is simply a very bad one for Federer unless he is playing his very best tennis, so I suspect we will see more of what we have seen before, Nadal beating Federer in the semifinal, and then losing to Djokovic in the final.

MadProfessah's prediction: Djokovic-Nadal final.

Isner Shocks Federer In Davis Cup; US Leads 2-0

John Isner of the United States shocked World #1 Roger Federer of Switzerland in the United States versus Switzerland Davis Cup tie held in Basel by winning his first match against the 16-time major champion 4-6 6-3 7-6 (4) 6-2.

It was Federer's first loss in Davis Cup in over 9 years. The U.S. now leads Switzerland 2-0 in this matchup because before the Isner win Mardy Fish outlasted Stanislas Wawrinka in a 4 hour, 27 minutes 5-set match 6-2 4-6 4-6 6-1 9-7.

Tsonga Saves 3 MPs Against Isner To Reach Paris Final

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga of France reached the final of the Paris Masters by saving three match points against 6'9" American John Isner and winning the match 3-6 7-6(1) 7-6(3). Tsonga had 7 break points on Isner's serve but was never able to convert, while Isner was able to break Tsonga in the 8th game of the first set and easily hold his serve again to take the first set.

As the match progressed, Isner's groundstrokes, which were hit with surprising authority on both wings, started to lose their bite and Tsonga began to win more of the baseline rallies. Still,with his booming serve, the American was able to keep the match close, and it took the rabidly partisan Parisian crowd to provide the last push to get their countryman into the victor's circle.

Tsonga will face Roger Federer, who demolished Tomas Berdych 6-4 6-3 in just 80 minutes and is in his first Paris Masters final. Tsonga won the tournament back in 2008. Federer and Tsonga have met 5 times this year so far, in some rather important matches. Federer leads their 2011 series 3-2 but lost 2 consecutive matches against the Frenchman at Wimbledon and then in Montreal this summer. Surprisingly, the two have never met in a final, where Tsonga has an excellent 7-3 career record, while Federer has an incredible 68-30, with his last title coming last week in Basel. Tsonga has never lost a 3rd set in Bercy but I suspect that streak will end on Sunday when Federer wins his 69th title.

PREDICTION: Federer.

Djokovic Gives Tsonga Walk-Over in Paris Masters

Novak Djokovic withdrew from the Paris Masters tournament on Friday before his quarterfinal match against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, handing the Frenchman a walk-over into the semifinals, where he will face John Isner (who beat World #5 David Ferrer 6-3 3-6 6-3). Djokovic published a statement on his official website, NovakDjokovic.rs, which said (in Serbo-Croatian): "Sadly I have to inform you that I have withdrawn from the tournament. I have pushed myself to the limit by playing, and after the match yesterday my shoulder got worse."

Djokovic has only lost 4 times all year, compared to 69 wins. His 69th win was a come-from-behind win against Viktor Troicki. By playing in Paris even though his shoulder injury is clearly not recovered from his shocking loss to Kei Nishikori last Saturday in Switzerland, the World #1 won a $1.6 million bonus from the ATP for playing in the Paris Masters as part of an incentive for the top players to play all 8 Masters tournaments in a year. Djokovic had already wthdrawn from the Shanghai Masters so if he withdrew from Paris his potential $2 million bonus for winning the most Masters series titles in 2011would have been reduced to nothing. Djokovic's 2011 winnings are well above $10 million because he has won 3 Major titles and 5 Masters series titles so far. His financial haul could increase even more if he does well at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals which start on Sunday November 20th in London.

Meanwhile back in Paris, World #4 Roger Federer is the highest remaining seed left in the only Masters tournament he has never won in his long storied career. He will face Tomas Berdych (who eliminated World #3 Andy Murray) in one semifinal while Isner and Tsonga face off in the other. A Federer-Tsonga final on Sunday in Paris would be an incredible moment.

US OPEN 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

The Fabulous Four meet again:
Djokovic (1) v Federer (3), Nadal (2) v Murray (4)

This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals, with the women's semifinals preview also available. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 2 of 2 men's semifinals.

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) v. Roger Federer SUI (3). This is of course a repeat of last year's instant classic Men's semifinal won by Djokovic after saving 2 consecutive match points in the 5th set. The question is, will this year's result be the same as last year's? Arguably, Djokovic is playing much better now than he did then, but so is Federer. (But clearly Djokovic's improvement over 2010 is larger than Federer's.) Is the fact that Federer is one year older (and now over 30, playing someone who is 24) more significant than the fact that he is the only player to have beaten Djokovic in a best of 5 set match all year? Or is the Serb's juggernaut record of 62-2 for the year more salient? Amazingly, Federer and Djokovic have met during the last weekend of the US Open for the last 5 years and Federer is 3-1 so far (including one final, in 2007). In fact, the Swiss great leads their career head-to-head 14-9, but has lost three times to Djokovic on hard courts this year (including the 2011 Australian Open semifinal where Federer was defending champion). In New York, Federer has actually had the toughest draw of the Top 4 players, facing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (11) and Marin Cilic (27). Djokovic has had a much easier time with two retirements in his first 5 rounds and a double-bagel match.  Djokovic's competition has been Nikolay Davydenko, Aleksandr Dolgopolov and an inspired Janko Tipsarevic. Interestingly, his matches have gotten tighter (in the score) as the tournament progresses, while Federer has basically played at the level he needs to win, relative to whoever is on the other side of the net. As most readers know, I am a decided Federer fan and when I started this write-up I intended to make a clear call for The Greatest Of All Time. I'm convinced he can win this match, but I am unsure as to whether he will. Doing the research for this piece has shown me that Djokovic is more likely to win this match, and the title. However, if Federer comes out early playing the kind of tennis he played against Tsonga and Juan Monaco I believe he can win in straight sets. Regardless, I doubt it will match last year's semifinal's shot-making and drama. MadProfessah's pick: Federer in 3 sets OR Djokovic in 4 or 5.

 Andy Murray GBR (4) v. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Nadal holds a significant 12-4 career head-to-head over Murray, including a slight 4-3 edge on hard courts. However, their more recent matches on hard courts have been very close, with the most famous being their electric 3-set thriller at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London in 2010, won by Nadal. In matches at the majors, Nadal leads 5-2 but at the 2010 Australian Open Murray was beating the Spaniard like a drum in the quarters when Nadal pulled the ripcord and retired from the match. However, I think what matters most is the match-up today and how they have been playing to date in New York. Nadal has had to get through Andy Roddick (21), David Nalbandian and Gilles Muller. Murray has had to get past John Isner (28), Donald Young and Feliciano Lopez (25). Really both players have had a relatively easy path to the semifinals, although Murray had to survive a 5-set scare against talented Robin Haase in the second round. The Brit is clearly starting to cement his "Fab 4" status, by making the semifinals or better of every major played in 2011(something Djokovic has also managed for the first time this year while Nadal has only done it once, in 2008 and Federer did for five consecutive years in a row from 2005 and 2009). He is showing his consistency and letting his innate talent shine through. Murray also has confidence, being one of two players to have defeated Djokovic in 2011, something Nadal hasn't done. I believe Murray is going to do something he hasn't done before (and which a lot of people don't expect him to do), and beat Nadal in a major semifinal. MadProfessah's pick: Murray in 3 or 4 sets OR Nadal in 5.

US OPEN 2011: Men's Quarterfinal Preview

The first two quarterfinals have already been completed (following my predictions precisely) so on Friday during the day the second two quarterfinals will be competed, consisting of the four winners of the 4th round matches that were postponed for two days due to rain: John Isner, Andy Roddick, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal.

Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinal matches and this year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Below are my predictions for the last two men's quarterfinal matches of the 2011 US Open.

John Isner USA (28) v. Andy Murray GBR (4). Interestingly, these two have only played once before, last year, at the 2010 Australian Open where Murray made it to the final, losing to Federer in straight sets. Frankly, I was surprised that Isner was able to take out Frenchman Gilles Simon in the round before. Although he has (probably) surpassed fellow American Andy Roddick as the most feared server in the world, he also shares the Roddick problem of being considered something of a "one note" wonder.  However, hard courts are definitely the 6'9" American's best surface and he has made his presence felt in 2011. It's difficult to make the quarterfinals of a major tournament without having multiple weapons, or a dollop of good luck. This is Isner's first major quarterfinal and Murray's tenth. Isner will most likely have a very partisan crowd backing him up, and Murray will delight in not having the weight of a nation's hopes weighing on his shoulders. The problem for Isnner is that he is playing Murray, who has been in 3 of  the last 7 hard court major finals (losing in all of them, but demonstrating his hard court bona fides) and is likely to reach his fourth.  PREDICTION: Murray.


Andy Roddick USA (21) v. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Nadal holds a 6-3 career head-to-head over all but that falls to 3-all on hard courts. They have only played once in a major, back at the 2004 US Open when an 18-year-old Nadal was schooled by the defending US Open champion in three, not very competitive sets 7 years ago. I did not predict Roddick to get this far in the tournament, but I think, now that he has, he really, really wants to get further, and he believes that he can, especially in New York. The shorter the match is, the better it is for Roddick, because if the match goes into four or five sets, Nadal's superior fitness will become more and more of a factor.

However, I do think that Roddick is ready to make another move to get deep in a major, especially here in New York where he had his greatest success. Nadal is still reeling from his unprecedented five consecutive losses to Novak Djokovic earlier this year and really had an undistinguished preparation coming into the Open. He must realize that due to the weather he will be forced to play four best-of-5 set matches in four days in order to defend his title, potentially the last three being against Roddick, then Murray and then the winner of Djokovic/Federer. Even for the indefatigable Spaniard, that might make him want to say "no mas." PREDICTION: Roddick.

US OPEN 2011: Djokovic Seeded #1

Yesterday I talked about the ridiculous seeding that USTA gave to 3-time US Open champion Serena Williams by placing her at #28 when most people believe she is the odds-on favorite to win her 14th major there this year.

On the men's side things were far less eventful, with the seedings generally following the ATP rankings.
It does mark the first time since 2003 that either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal has not been seeded #1 at the US Open, and it is the new #1, Novak Djokovic who takes a stunning 57-2 record for the year into the final major of the year, having won 2 of the 3 so far.

France has an incredible four players in the top 12 and three of them are bolded, indicating they are players to watch who could make some noise at this years Open,which starts on Monday. Spain has three in the Top 10. The players in blue are the ones I expect to win the title on Sunday September 10 and 11. It could very well depends on the draw, which will be known tomorrow.

Men's singles
1. Novak Djokovic (SRB), 2. Rafael Nadal (ESP), 3. Roger Federer (SUI), 4. Andy Murray (GBR), 5. David Ferrer (ESP), 6. Robin Soderling (SWE), 7. Gael Monfils (FRA), 8. Mardy Fish (USA), 9. Tomas Berdych (CZE), 10. Nicolas Almagro (ESP), 11. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), 12. Gilles Simon (FRA), 13. Richard Gasquet (FRA), 14. Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI), 15. Viktor Troicki (SRB), 16. Mikhail Youzhny (RUS), 17. Jurgen Melzer (AUT), 18. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), 19. Fernando Verdasco (ESP), 20. Janko Tipsarevic (SRB), 21. Andy Roddick (USA), 22. Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR), 23. Radek Stepanek (CZE), 24. Juan Ignacio Chela (ARG), 25. Feliciano Lopez (ESP), 26. Florian Mayer (GER), 27. Marin Cilic (CRO), 28. John Isner (USA), 29. Michael Llodra (FRA), 30. Ivan Ljubicic (CRO), 31. Marcel Granollers (ESP), 32. Ivan Dodig (CRO)

Women's singles
1. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN), 2. Vera Zvonareva (RUS), 3. Maria Sharapova (RUS), 4. Victoria Azarenka (BLR), 5. Petra Kvitova (CZE), 6. Li Na (CHN), 7. Francesca Schiavone (ITA), 8. Marion Bartoli (FRA), 9. Samantha Stosur (AUS), 10. Andrea Petkovic (GER), 11. Jelena Jankovic (SRB), 12. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), 13. Peng Shuai (CHN), 14. Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), 15. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS), 16. Ana Ivanovic (SRB), 17. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS), 18. Roberta Vinci (ITA), 19. Julia Goerges (GER), 20. Yanina Wickmayer (BEL), 21. Daniela Hantuchova (SVK), 22. Sabine Lisicki (GER), 23. Shahar Peer (ISR), 24. Nadia Petrova (RUS), 25. Maria Kirilenko (RUS), 26. Flavia Pennetta (ITA), 27. Lucie Safarova (CZE), 28. Serena Williams (USA), 29. Jarmila Gajdosova (AUS), 30. Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP), 31. Kaia Kanepi (EST), 32. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (ESP)