KEY BISCAYNE '12: Venus, Serena, Azarenka Win!

Venus Williams won the 602nd match of her stellar career by defeating former #1 Ana Ivanovic, 6-7(4) 6-2 6-2 to reach the quarterfinals of the Sony Ericsson Open in Key Biscayne, which she has won 3 times and her sister Serena Williams has won 5 times. Venus is know only the 14th player in WTA history to reach the 600-win landmark, with an overall win-loss record of 602-147.

World #1 Victoria Azarenka staged an(other) epic comeback from 6-1 5-1 down against Dominique Cibulkova when she came back to extend her 2012 winning streak to 26 matches by gutting out the win 1-6 7-6(7) 7-5. Last year, Azarenka had come back to beat Cibulkova despite being down 6-3 3-1 down at this very same tournament!

Serena Williams rocketed a career high 20 aces in this rematch of the 2011 US Open women's final to defeat Samantha Stosur 7-5 6-3 despite being a break down in both sets.

In the quarterfinals, Serena will face former World #1 Caroline Wozniacki , while Venus will face World #5 Agnieska Radwanska and Azarenka will play Marion Bartoli. The last quarterfnal will feature Li Na versus Maria Sharapova.

KEY BISCAYNE '12: Roddick Beats Federer!

Well, well! Former World #1 Andy Roddick shocked almost all observers by defeating World #3 Roger Federer 7-6(5) 1-6 6-4 in the 4th round of the Sony Ericsson Open, almost exactly 4 years after he had last beaten the Greatest of All Time in an ATP tour match (coincidentally) at this same tournament.

Federer came into the match sporting a  record of 40 wins, 2 losses since his heartbreaking semifinal loss to Novak Djokovic in the 2011US Open Semifinals and had won last week's ATP Masters Series tournament in Indian Wells for a record 4th timehttp://buckmire.blogspot.com/2012/03/indian-wells-12-raja-wins-73rd-atp.html, defeating arch-nemesis Rafael Nadal in the process. The Swiss Maestro was on a 16 matches winning streak and had won 77 consecutive matches against players outside the Top 20.

But Monday night belonged to the American, who served a bucketful of aces and exhibited uncharacteristic aggression on his return games coupled with surprisingly tenacious defense. Both were pivotal to Roddick's win Monday night. In the first set tiebreaker Roddick returned a surprisingly weak Federer ovehead on a sitter and tracked down an angle volley to hit a winner and clinch a mini-break which he nursed to claim a razor-thin 7-6(7-5) first set. In the 2nd game of the 3rd set, after losing 7 consecutive games, Roddick was down 0-40 on his serve when he suddenly stopped missing first serves and was able to save 4 break points and hold serve. Roddick followed up the momentum change by forcing 0-40 in Federer's very next service game by playing the most aggressive return game of his career I have ever seen, hitting four forehand winners to break serve. With his win, Roddick improved to 3 wins and 21 losses against Federer, but showed the rest of the field that even though the former top American is now over 30 and his ranking is in the 20s he can still string together enough strong points to make an impact at any tournament.

Federer Named Greatest Of All Time By TennisChannel

The Tennis Channel has been heavily promoting their countdown of the 100 Greatest (Tennis Players) Of All Time. The list of the 100 best players (men and women combined) as voted on by a panel of experts, former and current players was run through all this week and my favorite tennis player, Roger Federer, was named #1, or the G.O.A.T.

The Top 10 are:

1. Roger Federer
2. Rod Laver
3. Steffi Graf
4. Martina Navratilova
5. Pete Sampras
6. Rafael Nadal
7. Bjorn Borg
8. Margaret Court
9. Chris Evert
10. Billie Jean King

Serena Williams ended up at #14 and Andre Agassi, the husband of the Greatest Female Player of all Time (Steffi Graf) was placed at #12. Between them was John McEnroe and Serena's sister Venus Williams was at #22, 4 places ahead of Justine Henin at 26.

The full list is available online.

Venus, Serena Return To WTA Tour With Wins

Serena Williams and Venus Williams returned to the WTA tour this week at the Sony Ericsson Open in Key Biscayne, FL, in winning style. In her first match since September 2011, Venus defeated Kimiko Date-Krumm 6-0 6-3 in her first match back and then followed that up with an upset in her second match reigning Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova 6-4 4-6 6-0. Wow! 2 bagels in two matches, I guess Venus is back and she's serious!

Serena also played her first match after a long lay-off, by defeating Zhang Shuai 6-2 6-3 at the Sony Ericsson Open

INDIAN WELLS '12: Raja Wins 73rd ATP Title

Roger Federer continued his astonishing run of winning 6 out of 8 tournaments played since losing the 2011 US Open semifinals to Novak Djokovic by defeating John Isner 7-6(7) 6-3 in the final match of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. It was the 16-time major champion's 73rd ATP career title and record 4th title at this location (having previously won in it in 3 consecutive years 2004, 2005, and 2006). He has had 39 wins and only 2 losses in that period (to Djokovic and Isner).

More importantly, the win came one day after he defeated Rafael Nadal on an outdoor hardcourt for the first time since 2005. The 30-year-old now joins Nadal with a record 19 ATP Masters Shields. Federer won a cool $1 million for winning the 2012 BNP Paribas Open.

For American John Isner, his $500,000 finalist paycheck was the largest reward of his relatively short professional career. The 6'9" (or 6'10") player spent 4 years playing tennis at the University of Georgia before turning pro at age 22 four years ago. Isner had won his biggest victory of his career in the semifinal by defeating World #1 Novak Djokovic 7-6(7) 3-6 7-6(5). It was the first time an American male had defeated the reigning World #1 since James Blake beat Federer in the quarterfinals of the 2008 Beijing Olympics singles tournament.

The match itself was a nervy, tension-filled affair, with Federer facing (and saving) 3 breakpoints in his second service game of the first set. After that escape, Federer made a conscious effort to hit more winners with his forehand on the first strike. He ended the match with 12 errors and 29 winners (+17), while Isner was at 21 winners and 27 errors (-6).. In the inevitable tie-break, both players showed surprising tentativeness with Federer obtaining a lead and set point on his serve but failed to clinch. It wasn't until his 3rd set point that Federer was able to win the first set when  Isner made a forehand error into the net. The second set was less competitive, as Federer started using the tactic of slicing the ball to bring Isner into the net and passing him at will. Isner chances were also complicated because he never reached the amazing 140mph serving speeds from the day before, and Federer was able to easily serve out the match once he secured the hold.

INDIAN WELLS '12: Vika Wins 4th Title; Now 23-0!

AFP Photo/ ROBYN BECK

Victoria Azarenka continued her amazing, undefeated 2012 season by winning her 23rd consecutive match, defeating Maria Sharapova 6-2 6-3 and claim her 4th consecutive WTA tournament title of the year, the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, CA.

It was the first time since 2008 that the two players at the top of the WTA Tour met in a tour final, but Azarenka again showed her mastery of Sharapova's game, using controlled aggression and superior movement to highlight the Russian's weaknesses. The Belarussian has now beaten the Russian in the three WTA tour finals they have played, and leads their career head-to-head 5-3.

Azarenka looked very comfortable throughout the match, with Pam Shriver astute commentators noting that she was dressed like she was at practice (in capri pants, shorts and her contractual Nike gear.

It will be interesting to see how far Azarenka can go to match Novak Djokovic's 42-match winning streak of 2011. On the women's side, Martina Hingis and Martina Navratilova have the next longest streak of 37 match wins to start the year.

INDIAN WELLS '12: Improbable Federer-Isner Final!

In a day of shocking upsets, John Isner won the biggest match of his life to become the first American male player in four years to defeat a  reigning #1 player in the world (Novak Djokovic) in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells 7-6(7) 3-6 7-6(5). With his win, Isner cemented his entry into the ATP Tour Top 10 for the first time, and also secured that he will receive the biggest paycheck of his tennis career on Sunday, where the finalist receives $500,000 and the Champion gets a cool $1 million.

Isner now has a win over World #1 Djokovic and World #3 Roger Federer (on clay in Switzerland in Davis Cup) for 2012 and will be playing in his very first ATP Masters Series final. Last year, Djokovic did not lose a second match until August 21 when he retired with a shoulder injury against Andy Murray in the Cincinnati Masters Final.

Semifinals Review
Djokovic did not play badly on Saturday but was clearly not at his best; his groundstrokes did not have the usual penetrating  pop (or accuracy) and he became uncharacteristically tentative at crucial moments in the match. After breaking Isner in the very first game, Djokovic served for the first set at 5-4 and opened the game with a momentum-sapping double fault which eventually resulted in dropping his serve and evening the opening set at 5-all. This gave Isner confidence and he was able to get to the tie-break where he served a string of 140-plus mph serves, including an ace on set point at 8-7 in the tiebreak. Djokovic, on the other hand, repeatedly refused to be aggressive from the ground late in the tension-filled tiebreak and paid the ultimate price. Djokovic was able to win the 2nd set when he broke Isner late in the set but he never looked completely comfortable and Isner was able to basically hold his own from the ground, even when he was not serving bombs (although the American did end with 21 aces on the day). So, it was not that big of a surprise when Isner finished his biggest win of his career to date with another ace in another tiebreak on his very first match point.

And that was just the warm-up match for Federer-Nadal XXVIII! Since Nadal owns an 18-9 advantage over Federer and a 5-1 in outdoor hard courts, not very many people expected this match to be competitive, predicting an easy win for the higher ranked player. The match ended up being postponed for 3 hours due to rain and when it started the wind was incredible, with gusts up to 25 mph. One would have thought the conditions would have made it even tougher for the play with the one-handed backhand, but for some reason Federer came out firing and quickly raced out to a 3-0 lead. Nadal fought back and evened up things at 3-all, but then Federer held serve and broke the Spaniard and served out the first set 6-3. In the second set, Federer broke early and nursed his serve to scores of 3-1 and 4-2 and then broke Nadal to go up 5-2 and serve for the match. Nadal promptly broke back and drizzle started to fall. However, Nadal was able to hold and so Federer served for the match for a second time at 5-4, rushing to finish the match before the deluge came. However, at 30-all, a long point ensued which was won by Federer to set up a match point when the skies opened up and play was stopped on match point for Federer (6-3, 5-4, 40-30). After 4 minutes the players resumed play and Federer served a 120-plus mph ace out wide to seal his first outdoor hard-court victory since the very first time he played Nadal in 2005. Federer improved to 10 wins out of 28 matches played, and nosed ahead in their hard-court head-to-head, getting a modicum of revenge for his 2012 Australian Open semifinal loss to his arch-nemesis.

Final Preview
Federer and Isner are two very improbable finalists at the 2012 BNP Paribas Masters at Indian Wells, since last year World #1 and World #2 played in the final and most people expected that would happen again, especially the organizers. I'm sure they are not disappointed the soon-to-be top ranked American is playing in his first Masters Series final at their tournament but again, probably very few people give him a chance to win.

Head-to-head, Federer and Isner have only played 3 times (2007, 2010 and 2012) in their career with the 30-year-old Swiss leading his 26-year-old American opponent 2-1, having won both the hard-court matches and inexplicably lost their indoor clay court match. Federer has been playing excellent tennis for quite awhile, and has won 5 of the last 7 tournaments he has played in. Federer has also shown that he is able to dismantle the game of hard-serving Americans before (*cough*Andy Roddick *cough*) but Isner is probably a smarter and more effective server now than Roddick was at his peak but he is a MUCH less agile mover, both characteristics attributable to his 6'9", 245-pound frame. If Isner has an incredible serving day, he could totally take the winning decision completely out of Federer's hands (similar to Federer's shocking loss at Wimbledon last year to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). It definitely helps Isner that he knows he CAN beat Federer, since he did it a little less than a month ago.

As a 16-time major champion Federer is playing for history (as usual); if he wins this match he will win his 4th Indian Wells Masters title, and tie Nadal at the top of the record books with 19 ATP Masters shields apiece. Federer has a very good record of 72 wins and 30 losses in ATP Tour finals compared to Isner's 3 wins and 5 losses. I just doubt whether Isner has the instinct to really dig deep and do what he needs to do to beat Federer in the biggest match of his life, one day after he just played and won the biggest match of his life, where regardless of what happens he will earn more money in one day (he is also playing in the doubles final!) then he won all year in several of his years on tour.

MadProfessah's Prediction: Federer.

INDIAN WELLS 2012: Azarenka-Sharapova Final Set

In a rematch of the first grand slam final of the year, World #1 Victoria Azarenka will face World #2 Maria Sharapova in the championship match of the 2012 Indian Wells tournament on Sunday. Azarenka won her first major final in that Australian Open final over Sharapova 6-3 6-0 and in fact has not lost a match all year long, she is 22-0 so far, netting 3 titles (Sydney, Melbourne and Doha). Azarenka has been playing excellent tennis after her first match in the desert, and nearly double-bageled World #5 Agnieska Radwanska two rounds ago, in the quarterfinal, eventually winning 6-0 6-2. In the semifinals, Azarenka dispatched red-hot Angelique Kerber 6-4 6-3. Sharapova advanced when a back-to-form Ana Ivanovic was forced to retire at the beginning of the second set after having lost the first set to the Russian.

Sharapova will almost certainly be gunning for revenge against the player who forced her to eat a bagel in a grand slam championship match just 6 weeks ago. Azarenka leads their career head-to-head 4-3 and has won both of their championship final matches (Miami 2011 and Melbourne 2012).

I had previously predicted that Sharapova would beat Azarenka in the Australian Open, mostly because I didn't think Azarenka would win her first major final and clinch #1 so quickly. However, Azarenka showed her mental toughness to the whole world, and coupled with her impressive physical prowess she has begun to optimize her tennis results.

MadProfessah's Prediction: Azarenka (in 3 sets).

INDIAN WELLS '12: Federer-Nadal XXVIII, Nole-Isner

John Isner celebrates his 6-3 1-6 7-5 win over Gilles Simon to reach
 the semifinals of the hard court ATP Masters Series tournament
 in Indian Wells and face World #1 Novak Djokovic 

The semifinals of the first hard court ATP Masters Series tournament of the year are set, and they include the usual suspects: the World's Top 3 players in the world Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer (who have a jaw-dropping 31 Grand Slam singles titles between them) and a curious interloper: World #11, 6'10" American John Isner.

Isner takes the 4th semifinal spot usually occupied by World #4 Andy Murray, who lost his first match here against a very in-form Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Isner will enter the Top 10 in the World if he wins his semifinal match, but he faces World #1, 5-time major champion and 2011 Indian Wells defending champion Novak Djokovic. Isner has never beaten Djokovic in his career, although the two have only played twice, in 2010. Even though Isner is a much better player now, so is Djokovic, and he should prevail to defend his title on Sunday.

Federer-Nadal XVIII is not as highly anticipated this time because the two great players have already met this year (in the semifinals of the 2012 Australian Open) and the career head-to-head is so slanted towards Nadal (18-9), although the hard-court head-to-head record is now dead even at 5-5, thanks to Nadal's wins last year at the 2011 Miami Masters and the 2012 Australian Open. In indoor hard courts Federer leads 4-0 but Nadal leads 5-1 in outdoor hard courts. Federer has looked slightly off his game, possibly ill from the dreaded stomach virus which has claimed many victims (Gael Monfils, Francesca Schiavone, Mike Bryan, and many others) at this year's tournament. However, he played excellent tennis to dispatch Juan Martin del Potro 6-3 6-2 for the fourth time in 2012.

Nadal is playing at a very high level this week, eager to get his chance to contest his 8th consecutive final against Djokovic (0-7!) and has reached the doubles final with compatriot Marc Lopez (where he will face Isner and Sam Querrey). In his quarterfinal match, Nadal was two points from defeat against a resurgent David Nalbandian, who demonstrated once again that he has one of the best backhands in the game but ultimately succumbed 4-6 7-5 6-4 in one of the best matches of the year so far. The match-up on an outdoor hardcourt is simply a very bad one for Federer unless he is playing his very best tennis, so I suspect we will see more of what we have seen before, Nadal beating Federer in the semifinal, and then losing to Djokovic in the final.

MadProfessah's prediction: Djokovic-Nadal final.

DUBAI: Federer Beats Murray For 72nd Career Title

Roger Federer continued his strong play in 2012 by extending his winning streak to 10 in a row, capturing his  second consecutive ATP title of the year, the Dubai Duty Free Championships. Federer defeated Murray 7-5 6-4 in the final, one day after Murray had handed World #1 Novak Djokovic his first defeat of the year, and Federer won one of the closest matches of the year against Juan Martin del Potro, who he beat last week in the final of the Rotterdam tournament.

Federer improved his career head to head to 7 wins and 8 losses against Murray and his overall record in finals to 72 wins and 30 losses. Since turning 30 on August 8, 2011 Federer is 41-5, winning 5 of the last 7 tournaments he's entered.

The first Masters 1000 tournament of the year starts on Monday in Indian Wells, followed afterwards by the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami. Last year, Djokovic won both American hard court Masters series tournaments over Rafael Nadal.

DUBAI: Murray Beats Djokovic in 2-Sets; Faces Federer

Well, well! Andy Murray handed Novak Djokovic his first defeat of 2012, stopping the World #1's winning streak at 10 matches this year, guaranteeing that the Serbian phenom would be unable to match 2011's astonishing 42-match winning streak to begin the year.

Murray beat Djokovic in straight sets 6-2 7-5 in the semifinals of the Dubai Duty Free Championships , a tournament Djokovic had won 3 years in a row (defeating Federer in 2011). The  World #4 Scottish player improved his career head-to-head to 5 wins-7 losses, with the last loss coming in a 5-set heartbreaker of the 2012 Australian Open.

Murray will face World #3 Roger Federer in the final, and the 3-time major finalist holds a caeer head-to-head edge of 8 wins, 6 losses against the 16-time major champion. Federer defeated Juan Martin del Potro for the 3rd time in 2012, improving to a record of 10 wins and 2 losses against the Argentine giant. The match was incredibly close (and high quality) with Federer coming out on top, 7-6(5) 7-6(6).

In the final I expect the match to be of quite a high quality, but either Federer will win in 3 sets, or Murray will continue his momentum and win in straight sets.

Azarenka Wins Qatar Open, Now 17-0 In 2012

2012 Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka of Belarus defeated 2011 US Open champion Samantha Stosur of Australia 6-2 6-4 in Doha, Qatar today to win her 3rd title of the year, bringing her winning streak for the year to 17 consecutive matches. Azarenka improved to 11-8 in career WTSA Tour finals, while Stosur is now 3-11.

During her winning streak this year, Azarenka has won in Sydney, Melbourne and now in Doha.  In the next week she will try to win in Dubai as well. The new world #1 is now just 1 game away from matching Maria Sharapova's 18-0 start to the 2008 year. Last year, World #1 Novak Djokovic stunned the tennis world with an astonishing 42-0 start to the year, losing for the first time in 2011 to Roger Federer in the Roland Garros semifinals.

Can Azarenka put together a Djokovic year in 2012? Only time will tell.

Federer Wins 1st Title of 2012 in Rotterdam

Roger Federer won his 1st ATP Tour title of 2012, by defeating 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro 6-1 6-4 to win the ABN AMRO Championships in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Federer improved to 71-30 in ATP Tour finals, while del Potro now has a 9-5 record. This was the second time in 2012 Federer had beaten the 6'5 Argentinian, also winning their 2012 Australian Open quartfinal encounter.

Isner Shocks Federer In Davis Cup; US Leads 2-0

John Isner of the United States shocked World #1 Roger Federer of Switzerland in the United States versus Switzerland Davis Cup tie held in Basel by winning his first match against the 16-time major champion 4-6 6-3 7-6 (4) 6-2.

It was Federer's first loss in Davis Cup in over 9 years. The U.S. now leads Switzerland 2-0 in this matchup because before the Isner win Mardy Fish outlasted Stanislas Wawrinka in a 4 hour, 27 minutes 5-set match 6-2 4-6 4-6 6-1 9-7.

Celebrity Friday (bonus): Djokovic Wins Laureus Award

Novak Djokovic won the prestigious Laureus World Sportsman of the Year award last week.

Djokovic has his sights on even bigger prizes:

Novak Djokovic says that he would like to win both Roland Garros and the Olympic gold medal this summer. "Why not both?" the Serbian said after winning the Laureus Sportsman of the Year award. 

Djokovic, who led Serbia to its first Davis Cup triumph in 2010, has won the Australian Open three times and Wimbledon and the U.S. Open once each. He has yet to reach the final of Roland Garros. Djokovic won the bronze medal at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The last player to win all four majors and an Olympic gold was Steffi Graf, who won the Golden Slam in 1988. The London Olympics begin three weeks after Wimbledon. 

"I've learned how to handle my schedule, how to handle myself on and off the court and to prepare for the biggest events. That is going to be the case this year," Djokovic said. "I will try to set up my form for Roland Garros first of all, where I want to get the title and go all the way through, and then I'll start thinking about Wimbledon and the Olympics."

Serena Williams has won a record 3 Laureus Sportswoman of the Year awards, Roger Federer has won 4. It should be interesting to see how many Djokovic wins. It's looking like he may really be able to repeat his astonishing 2011 tennis performance (70 wins 6 losses 3 major titles) in 2012.

Venus, Serena Return To Court For Fed Cup

Venus Williams and Serena Williams returned to the court to play for the United States in Fed Cup this weekend. It was Venus' first match since the 2011 U.S. Open, and Serena's since her 4th round loss at the 2012 Australian Open. The United States swept Belarus 5-0, although the Eastern European's top star (and 2012 Australian Open champion) Victoria Azarenka did not play, with the Williams Sisters contributing to 3 of those 5 points. Serena won bot her singles match (albeit looking pretty scratchy doing so) and Venus teamed up with Liezel Huber to win the doubles match.

The sisters needed to play for the United States in order to maintain their eligibility to represent their country at the 2012 London Olympics this summer.

AUS OPEN 2012: Djokovic Wins 5th Major Title

As I predicted yesterday, Novak Djokovic defeated Rafael Nadal in the longest grand slam final of all-time 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-7(5) 7-5 in 5 hours and 53 minutes in Melbourne, Australia to win  his 3rd Australian Open title, and 5th major title overall.

The words that come to mind to describe the level of the play in this match are  "stunning," "incredible," "astonishing" and "ridiculous." There is an excellent breakdown of the match set by set by ESPN.com columnist Ravi Ubha. He is is (somewhat prematurely, I think) calling it the greatest major final of the Open era.

I'm not ready to call it that yet but I do think it deserves to be in the conversation, and will almost certainly be the most memorable match of the year. (But even that is difficult to predict; if it takes nearly 6 hours to complete a five-set match between these two players on a hard court surface, what the heck will happen if they face each other in the finals of Roland Garros' red clay?)

Djokovic has inserted himself into the conversation about the greatest player of all time. If Rafael Nadal dominates Roger Federer (currently leading their head to head 18-9) and Novak Djokovic has won a jaw-dropping seven matches in a row against Nadal, every single one a final (3 of them major finals) and Federer leads his head-to-head with Djokovic 14-10 (including inflicting the Serbian's only 2011 loss in a major) then who is the G.O.A.T.? (I would argue it is the person who wins the most major singles titles, period, and thus Federer.)

One of the most amazing thing about the 2012 Australian Open final were the switches of momentum. Nadal wins the first set but then loses the next two. In the 4th set Djokovic had triple break point when Nadal was serving at 3-4 when Nadal won a string of 5 points in a row with some otherworldly play which evened the score. In the 4th set tiebreak Djokovic led 5-3 and hit an attempted forehand winner down the line which would have given him 3 consecutive championship points and pushed it wide instead. After getting back on serve in the tiebreak, Nadal won the last 3 points of the tiebreak to even the set at 2-sets all.

In the 5th set, I (like most observers and commentators) presumed Nadal would win. This was the competitors first 5th set ever, so it showed that Nadal had made progress from the previous 29 meetings. Djokovic was looking visibly tired and deflated after being tantalizingly close to winning the match in 4 sets. Nadal was actually hitting the ball harder in the 5th set than he had in the first (average groundstroke speed was 3 mph higher, 75mph to 72mph)! Nadal broke first and was at 4-2, 30-15 when he inexplicably hit a sitter backhand just wide of the line instead of the open court Djokovic had conceded. That was all it took for the Serb to come back. He won that point and the next to get his first break point and eventually evened the 4th set at 4-all. The 5th set was the first set in the match where Nadal was serving first so Djokovic had the scoreboard pressure of playing from behind. This was crucial when Nadal held to go up 5-4 in the 5th set, but the Spaniard never even got a sniff in Djokovic's service game leading to 5-all. The 11th game of the 5th set was the decider, with Djokovic breaking Nadal on his second opportunity and served for the championship at 6-5. He quickly got up 30-0 but then Nadal won the next three points (mostly on Djokovic errors forced by Nadal's excellent play) to have a breakpoint to even the match and for the first time in over 3 hours  Djokovic saved a breakpoint (Nadal was 4 of 5 on breakpoints to that point). Djokovic was able to win the last 3 points of the match to get back to duece at 6-5 and then won the last two points with excellent first serves which enabled him to get ahead in the rally early and he won the match on his first championship point with an easy inside-out forehand cross-court winner. For the first time (and probably not the last) Novak Djokovic defended a major title. If he wins the French Open in June (which I think is a distinct possibility) he will have won 4 slams in a row, something no man has been able to do since Rod Laver.

Absolutely amazing. On to the rest of 2012!

AUS OPEN 2012: Men's Final Preview

Rafael Nadal ESP (2) vs Novak Djokovic SRB (1)   

Here is my prediction for the 2012 Australian Open Men's Singles Championship Match. My (incorrect) prediction for the Women's Singles Championship Match is also available. This year I previously correctly predicted 1 of 2 men's semifinals and predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. I also correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Men's Semifinals Review.
R. Nadal ESP d. R. Federer SUI, 6-7(5) 6-2 7-6(5) 6-4. Federer-Nadal XXVII was highly anticipated by fans of both players, since it was only the second time the two great players had met in the semifinal of a major (Roland Garros 2005) as well as only the second time the two had met at Australia's major tournament (2009 Men's Final). In both previous meetings, Nadal had come away the victor, and as it turned out that would be the case in this match as well.

Fans of Federer had reasons to be confident going into the match, since the Swiss player was on a winning streak stemming from the end of the 2011 season and had demolished Nadal the last time the two had met. However, during this match it became clear pretty quickly that Federer was not going to be producing the scintillating tennis he displayed against Juan Martin del Potro in the when he started mis-hitting balls on both wings despite pulling out the first set in a tiebreak after blowing a 4-1 lead. Although the person who won the first set had won 20 of 26 matches in their storied rivalry this time Nadal was able to turn that stat around. (The person winning the 3rd set of their matches when the first two sets are split has always won the match.)

It will be interesting to see how Federer reacts to losing this match. Surely he knows that as he gets older there will be more results like this and the high points like winning the year-end championships (for a record 6th time!) will be fewer and far between, but more meaningful precisely for that reason.

N. Djokovic SRB d. A. Murray GBR, 6-3 3-6 6-7(4) 6-1 7-5. The end result of the match was not surprising but the quality of the match most definitely was. This was a rematch of the 2011 Australian Open final where Murray was completely outmatched by his contemporary. This time it was a deadly war of attrition. After splitting the first two sets by identical scores (with very different story lines: in the second set Murray was able to win the set despite being down 0-2) the third set was absolutely jaw dropping. It took a half an hour to play the first three games of the set, and after saving set points against him at 4-5, Murray served for the set at 6-5 but was promptly broken to lead to a tiebreak, which the newly combative Scot won 7-4, picking up the set after a truly astonishing 88 minutes of brilliant tennis from both men. In the fourth set Djokovic responded to losing the middle set by pummeling the ball and moving like a man possessed to easily claim the 4th set 6-1 in 25 minutes. In the 5th set, Djokovic was able to break in the 5th game and eventually led 5-2 on Murray's serve but when serving for the match at 5-3 Murray was able to break back and even the match at 5-all in the 5th. Just getting to that point in a major contest with Djokovic, who had embarassed Murray in last year's final on this same court, is a major accomplishment for the Scot, and should bode well for his campaign to win a major in the near future. After 5-all Djokovic was able to hold to go up 6-5 and a somewhat lose service game by Murray led to him facing two breakpoints at 15-40 which were also match points. Djokovic was able to convert on his first chance and now is in his 4th major final in the last 5 grand slam tournaments. This was clearly one of the best matches of the tournament (and most likely of the year) and could overshadow the championship match to follow.


Men's Final Preview.
For the third consecutive major (and 7th consecutive time) the two top ranked players in the world, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, are facing each other in the final of a major. Djokovic has won their two previous major finals (Wimbledon 2011 and US Open 2011) as well as in 4 other Masters Series finals in 2011. However, even with six consecutive wins over Nadal, the 10-time major champion from Spain still leads the 4-time major champion from Serbia in their career head-to-head 16-13. It should be noted that prior to 2011, Djokovic had lost all 5 singles finals the two had contested. However, even before the 2011 year Djokovic had led Nadal 7-5 in hard court matches and now leads 10-5 on that surface. Astonishingly, the two have played each other even more times than the Federer and Nadal. Really, we should be referring to their thirtieth upcoming professional match as Nadal-Djokovic XXX (though that could mean something else!). And since both are in their early 20s, we have many more matches to look forward to between these two great champions.

Can any player really beat Rafael Nadal SEVEN times in a row? If someone had told me that Novak Djokovic would beat Nadal even three times in a row (especially twice in clay court finals) I would have said they were drunk. However, if there is anyone who can do it to Nadal it is Djokovic, who does to Nadal what Nadal does to Federer. Simply said, the match up is bad for the player on the losing end of the comparison. Nadal's strengths do not hurt Djokovic as much as they do Federer and the Serb is the only player who can not only match the Spaniard's supernatural defensive abilities but is probably the only player on tour who actually possesses a mental edge over Nadal. Major finals generally come down to the mental contest, and with the results of 2011 fresh in everyone's mind (especially Nadal's!), this is a distinct advantage to Djokovic.

What can Nadal do better than what he has done in the previous 6 finals he has lost to Djokovic? One thing would be to serve bigger, but he seems loathe to try that, and Djokovic is a better returner than Nadal anyway. Nadal does have a better chance in this final than either of the two major finals they played last year because Djokovic may not be at  100% due to the potentially pyrrhic victory he won over Murray in 4 hours, 53 minutes two days ago. However, Djokovic was not at his best physically (and not playing his best tennis) in the first two sets of the last hard-court major final the two played and still managed to gain a 2-0 set advantage and eventually win. Nadal is actually only 1-2 behind Djokovic ihead-to-head in major finals. If he wins tonight he can atleast even that statistic, and he can take comfort from the fact he has beaten Djokovic in a major final before, on a fast hard court no less. Nadal can look to the 2010 US Open final he won in 4-sets over Djokovic for inspiration but unfortunately for the Spaniard he will be playing a player who is playing better than that opponent tonight (probably).


MadProfessah's pick: Djokovic.

AUS OPEN 2012: Azarenka Wins 1st Major (Over Sharapova)

Victoria Azarenka of Belarus defeated Maria Sharapova of Russia in stunning fashion 6-3 6-0 to win her first major singles title, the Australian Open. This was surprising to me, because 3-time major champion Sharapova had played excellent tennis in the two previous rounds, but her game abandoned her completely.

It was a very strange match; some would even call it a mismatch and it reveals a new pattern that has emerged with Sharapova in finals that I mentioned yesterday. In the major finals that Sharapova has lost, the matches have not been remotely close. She won a mere 5 games in losing to Petra Kvitova in the 2011 Wimbledon final, she won 3 games losing to Serena Williams in the 2007 Australian Open final and last night she won 3 games in one set and none in the other against Azarenka last night. The difference was that in those first two losses she was completely outmatched by the other player, who played some of the best tennis of their career. In the match with Azarenka, however, Sharapova lost because she simply played badly, especially after grabbing a 2-0 lead. Her groundstrokes started flying wide and into the net, on both sides, even her usually dependable backhand side. Neither player is known for their movement but even though she was playing on her best surface, Sharapova was moving like she was playing on her worst, with her feet mired in cement. Once Azarenka got over the jitters of playing in her first major  she gained control of her game and basically all she had to do was keep the ball in the court and watch from across the net as her opponent self-destructed, which Sharapova did in historic fashion. I believe it was the first bagel set in a major women's singles final since Serena Williams beat Dinara Safina 6-0 6-3 in the 2009 Australian Open final. (The most recent bagel sets in majorwomen's singles finals were Justine Henin over Clijsters in 2003 at the French Open, Venus Williams over Henin in 2000 at Wimbedon land Martina Hingis over Venus Williams in 1997 at the U.S. Open.)

Azarenka's win makes her the 21st woman to sit atop the WTA rankings and won her 2.4 million Australian dollars. Still at #2 is Kvitova, with Sharapova at #3 and former #1 Caroline Wozniacki sinking to #4. Interestingly, the last 5 major singles tournament on the women's side have been won by 5 different people: Azarenka, Samantha Stosur, Petra Kvitova, Li Na and Kim Clijsters. An exciting time for women's tennis!

AUS OPEN 2012: Women's Final Preview

Maria Sharapova RUS (4) vs. Victoria Azarenka BLR (3). 

Here is my prediction for the 2012 Australian Open women's final. I previously correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals this year. On the men's side I correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 1 of 2 men's semifinals this year.


How Did They Get Here?

M. Sharapova RUS d. P. Kvitova CZE 6-2 3-6 6-4. This was a repeat of the 2011 Wimbledon final where Kvitova won her first major title over Sharapova, in the venue where Sharapova had won her first over Serena Williams in 2004. Sharapova knew that she had been outhit and outserved in that match so in Australia rematch she was prepared and determined to not let that happen. Despite serving no aces and 10 double faults, the Russian was able to stay aggressive in her service games and ended up winning a fair number that she really should have lost. Kvitova still has streaks where she is very very good and hits winners from (and to) every corner of the court but also streaks where she riddles the court with errors (reminiscent of a Serena Williams circa 2000). What eventually decided the match was not hitting the ball between the lines but what was between the ears. Sharapova was just mentally tougher; at 4-all in the 3rd set she gutted out another difficult service hold and when Kvitova's turn to hold her serve to stay in the match she dissolved into a puddle of unforced errors and lost.

V. Azarenka BLR d.  K. Clijsters BEL, 6-4 1-6 6-3. Despite the score, this was actually quite a tight match, with the result in doubt until the last two games or so. After losing the first set, Clijsters raced out to a huge 5-0 lead in the second set, breaking Azarenka twice in succession and holding her own service games relatively easily. Faced with the indignity of losing a bagel set, Azarenka calmed down and started making first serves eventually winning a service game, and forcing Clijstersto serve out the set. More importantly, this allowed Azarenka to serve first in the deciding set and again she held serve and was able to break Clijsters first. However, what followed then was a series of breaks and nervy player from both sides of the net until finally at 5-3 Azarenka was able to hold her service game thanks to consecutive errors from Clijsters, and the match ended with Azarenka watching an errant backhand  from the Australian Open defending champion sailing out of the court with relief and joy.

Who Will Win?
This final will surely be the loudest women's final ever played, with both players known for the sounds they make during play (also known as "grunts" or "shrieks"). Azarenka's is a pretty uniform low pitched, two-tone wail which she makes almost every time she hits the ball while Sharapova's can vary from a loud grunt to a truly earsplitting shriek as the point gets longer or more important. Anyway, the two have played 6 times before and have split their matches 3-all, 2-all on hard courts. Interestingly, Azarenka leads 2-0 in finals (both on outdoor hard courts); she beat Sharapova last year in Miami and the year before in Stanford in straight sets. The two have never met in a major final despite being on tour for a half-dozen years simultaneously.

Their games are somewhat similar: they both play what is known as "Big babe" tennis. They want to win the point as early as possible, with the first strike of the ball, and have the power to hit winners from any point in the court. Azarenka is better at the net, while Sharapova has a better se rve (in theory) but will be hard-pressed in a major final to serve well. Azarenka is the better mover on the court, but hard court is the surface on which Sharapova moves the best and she has extremely powerful defensive skills.

As usual in the women's game, the final result will almost certainly be won by the more mentally tough player. The fact that it has taken Azarenka 25 majors to reach her first major final despite being a legitimate Top 5 player for the last 2-3 years shows a degree of mental weakness that is not exhibited by her opponent. Sharapova is in her 5th major final, only losing the 2007 Australian Open and 2011 Wimbledon final to players who completely blew her off the court (Serena and Kvitova, respectively). In a hard-fought battle I would go with the more mentally tough, experienced player, which in this case is Sharapova. Azarenka has under performed in majors so far in her career (two semifinals and 1 final) while her opponent has been in 13 semifinal and 5 finals. It takes a rare player (who is not going to be a one-slam wonder, e.g. Schiavone, Majoli) to win their first major final (Sharapova, Serena, Kvitova) and I don't think Azarenka is either a one-slam wonder or a player mentally tough enough to win their first major slam final. Sharapova, of course, already holds three major titles (Wimbledon 2004, U.S. Open 2006, Australian Open 2008). Numerology would say that an even year like 2012 bodes well for her chances tonight.

The winner of this match will also claim the World #1 ranking, dethroning Caroline Wozniacki. Sharapova has been #1 before, for 17 weeks,and I fully expect Azarenka will get there eventually (perhaps even this year). The Belarussian is on a winning streak, having not yet lost in 2012 (she won the Sydney warm-up tournament in a tough 3-setter over Li Na). There's a chance her streak will continue, but I think it is more likely that it will end in Melbourne tonight.

MadProfessah's pick: Sharapova.