KEY BISCAYNE '12: Roddick Beats Federer!

Well, well! Former World #1 Andy Roddick shocked almost all observers by defeating World #3 Roger Federer 7-6(5) 1-6 6-4 in the 4th round of the Sony Ericsson Open, almost exactly 4 years after he had last beaten the Greatest of All Time in an ATP tour match (coincidentally) at this same tournament.

Federer came into the match sporting a  record of 40 wins, 2 losses since his heartbreaking semifinal loss to Novak Djokovic in the 2011US Open Semifinals and had won last week's ATP Masters Series tournament in Indian Wells for a record 4th timehttp://buckmire.blogspot.com/2012/03/indian-wells-12-raja-wins-73rd-atp.html, defeating arch-nemesis Rafael Nadal in the process. The Swiss Maestro was on a 16 matches winning streak and had won 77 consecutive matches against players outside the Top 20.

But Monday night belonged to the American, who served a bucketful of aces and exhibited uncharacteristic aggression on his return games coupled with surprisingly tenacious defense. Both were pivotal to Roddick's win Monday night. In the first set tiebreaker Roddick returned a surprisingly weak Federer ovehead on a sitter and tracked down an angle volley to hit a winner and clinch a mini-break which he nursed to claim a razor-thin 7-6(7-5) first set. In the 2nd game of the 3rd set, after losing 7 consecutive games, Roddick was down 0-40 on his serve when he suddenly stopped missing first serves and was able to save 4 break points and hold serve. Roddick followed up the momentum change by forcing 0-40 in Federer's very next service game by playing the most aggressive return game of his career I have ever seen, hitting four forehand winners to break serve. With his win, Roddick improved to 3 wins and 21 losses against Federer, but showed the rest of the field that even though the former top American is now over 30 and his ranking is in the 20s he can still string together enough strong points to make an impact at any tournament.

AUS OPEN 2012: Stosur(6) Loses In 1st Round

Reigning U.S. Open champion Samantha Stosur crashed out of her home country's Grand Slam tournament, losing 7-6(2) 6-3 to Sorana Cirstea in the first round. Her opponent in the 2011 U.S.Open final, 13-time major champion Serena Williams won her first round match 6-3 6-2 over Tamira Paszek. Maria Sharapova, Petra Kvitova Vera Zvonareva and Marion Bartoli all won their first round matches.

Other first round winners on the male side of the draw were Andy Roddick, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and French superstars Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils.

Best (Men's) Tennis Matches of 2011

Here are my picks for the "best" (or most memorable) tennis matches by men in 2011. These are basically the matches that had the most impact on me while they were occurring, feature some of the best play or most amazing shots, had the most impact on the rest of the tennis season or are matches that I would most likely to watch again in the future. You can see my previous lists: Best Men's Tennis Matches of 2010, Best Men's Tennis Matches of 2009 and Best Men's Tennis Matches of 2006. (There were no men's lists in 2007 or 2008 for some reason.) I have also compiled lists of the Best Women's Tennis Matches for 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010. These can all be accessed at my MadProfessah.com Tennis tab.

1. N. Djokovic SRB d. R. Nadal ESP, 6-2 6-4 6-7(3) 6-3, 2011 U.S. Open final, New York.

For the sixth time in 2011 the World #1 and World #2 met in tournament final, this time at the last grand slam of the year (with the ranking positions reversed from the 5 previous meetings), in New York where Rafael Nadal had had his career defining success the year before, completing the career slam by defeating this same opponent at this very same tournament.  After surviving a double match point against the Greatest Player of All Time in the previous round Novak Djokovic was playing with "house money" in the final. Surely the new #1 player from Serbia would be unable to snatch another major tournament title from the Spanish defending champion? The most amazing part of this match was that in my estimation Nadal played better tennis than Djokovic for the majority of the first two sets but somehow managed to lose them both. Djokovic seemed impervious to the score and just refused to go away in the first two sets, repeatedly responding to ridiculous shots and enervating rallies from Nadal with one more clear strike of the ball on or near the lines. The mental stakes of this match were even more important than the physical impact. By winning this match Djokovic showed that there was no question that he was the best player in the world, and that he had truly demolished the Federer-Nadal duopoly at the pinnacle of tennis, and was in the process of filling new pages in the tennis record books with the name of the new kid on the block, Novak Djokovic.

2.  R. Federer SUI d. N. Djokovic, 7-6(5) 6-3 3-6 7-6(5), 2011 Roland Garros Semifinal, Paris. This match was the only result standing between Novak Djokovic's astonishing 2011 season of three major titles, 5 Masters series shields, a record $12.6 million dollars and 70 tour wins and the rare, sheer perfection of a calendar year slam, which only a handful of male or female tennis players have ever accomplished. After all, Roger Federer has thrice won 3 of the 4 major tournaments in a year (2004, 2006 and 2007) while Nadal did it last year in 2010. Players like Mats Wilander (1988) and Jimmy Connors (1974), who are superb champions but arguably not indelible names in the tennis pantheon, have been able to win 3 major titles in a calendar year. But no man sincethe great Rod Laver has been able to win 4 in a year or 4 in a row. In this match, Federer demonstrated, for the umpteenth time, that he is the second-best clay court player of his generation, behind Rafael Nadal who is the Greatest Clay Court player of all-time, when he faced off against a Djokovic who had not lost a match for the entire year and who had dismissed Federer relatively easily (3 times!) in his 42-match winning streak through the first 5 months of the year. Djokovic's confidence was at its peak and he (and most observers) believed that he would win this match to face Nadal in the final. I sincerely believe that if Djokovic had won this match he would have beaten Nadal in the Roland Garros final and won the elusive calendar Grand Slam to cement his superlative year in the record books for ever. 2011 was the first year since 2002 that Federer did not win a major title but handing Djokovic his only defeat in a Grand Slam match all year long is something the Swiss will long remember and treasure even if his total remains stuck at 16 major singles titles.

3. N. Djokovic SRB d. R. Federer SUI, 6-7(7) 4-6 6-3 6-2 7-5, 2011 U.S. Open semifinal, New York.
Just to get to the final of the U.S. Open for the second year in a row, Djokovic had to face the best hard-court player of his generation, Roger Federer. Amazingly, for the second year in a row Federer held two match points against Djokovic and managed to lose! For Djokovic he had the added mental pressure that he was also facing the only player who had beaten him at a major tournament all year long. However, in the fifth set, having made the herculean effort to overcome a 2-set deficit to even the match, Djokovic faced a match point with Roger Federer serving at 5-3, 40-15. On a pretty good first serve Djokovic hit a forehand go-for-broke service return winner, smacking away a match point in jaw-dropping, history-making fashion. The second match point was lost on a difficult half-volley by Federer (caused by another Djokovic excellent service return) which hit the net and bounced out of bounds. It was this point, 5-3, Deuce in the5th set of the 2011 US Open semifinals that Federer will remember for decades. He should have been able to regroup and serve out the game by finding a way to win two points in a row on his serve but instead he lost the next two points and before he knew it Djokovic had held serve and the match was dead even at 5-all with a complete momentum switch and soon it slipped away completely. It is precisely these very small moments and individual points which extremely close matches can be decided on, and these kinds of matches often decide major championships which are remembered forever.


4. J-W Tsonga FRA d. R. Federer SUI, 3-6 6-7(3) 6-4 6-4 6-4, 2011 Wimbledon quarterfinal, London. 
Roger Federer had won 178 Grand Slam matches in a row when he had won the first two sets of a 5-set match at a major tournament, never losing a match with such a huge lead. He was playing at Wimbledon, in the quarterfinals, on a surface he had dominated for the better part of a decade, collecting 6 titles (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009). On the other side of the net was the wildly talented Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who had lost to Federer the last three times they had played but who had acquitted himself well in the Queen's Club warm-up tournament, losing a hard-fought final to Andy Murray. Somehow, after facing a breakpoint in the 1st set Tsonga was able to raise his service effectiveness to stratospheric levels and never even faced a break point in the subsequent 4 sets, managing to break Federer three times, once each time in the three final sets, which was enough to win the match. Federer did not play badly, but he did not play aggressively enough to jar the Frenchman from his self-conceived (and self-confident) game plan once he gained that 2-0 set lead. I believe that Federer was hurt by the fact that he had won so many times due to his opponent basically giving up at the thought of trying to win 3 consecutive sets against The Greatest Player of all Time that he was unprepared for the stiff resistance put up by Tsonga. It was literally a very unfamiliar position for Federer to be in. This match was critical to demonstrate to the rest of the field that Federer, like everyone else, can lose a match despite holding a commanding a lead, and providing a reminder that a match is ot ove runtil the final point is played. Tsonga also exposed the truth that Federer was no longer at the very top of the game, and that there were other players besides former and reigning Grand Slam champions, who could defeat the Swiss Maestro.

5. N. Djokovic SRB d. A. Murray GBR, 6-1 3-6 7-6(2), 2011 Italian Open semifinal, Rome.
Clay court tennis is almost a completely different sport from tennis played on harder, faster surfaces. It requires more patience, more guile and (often), more physical tenacity than hard court tennis. Amazingly, the best clay court match of the year did not feature the presence of the King of Clay Rafael Nadal, but instead was a brutal, brilliant 3-hour slugfest between the 3rd and 4th best clay court players in the world. Some observers call this semifinal clash between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic the best match of the year but I would disagree. For pure tennis entertainment, it probably is the best match of the year, featuring some of the longest rallies of the year but as for overall significance on the future of tennis or impact on me while I was watching it, matches that occur at majors have an inherent advantage of historical significance. I would also argue that the matches higher on the list may not have as many ridiculously long rallies (although the #1 match does) but they each have more eye-popping shots attempted (and frequently made) with tennis posterity on the line. That being said, this was a heck of a match, clearly the best non-final, non-major match of the year. Murray served for the match in the third set and his play throughout was able to partially erase his disappointing performance(s) in major finals and show why he belongs to be in the conversation when discussing the best players in tennis, but in the end, he again fell heart-wrendlingly short of the win, which is all most people will ever remember.


 6. N. Djokovic SRB d. R. Nadal, 4-6 6-3 7-6(4), 2011 Sony Ericsson Open final, Miami.
This match was played a mere few weeks after Indian Wells where Djokovic had beaten Nadal for the first time in a final, after losing to him in the five previous finals they had contested. However, it was this match that really cemented in my mind that Djokovic had reached a brand new level of tennis.  Djokovic had a bad (16 losses 8 wins) head-to-head record overall with Nadal but all his 8 wins against the Spaniard had come on hard courts (but never in an important final). Nadal was the defending US Open champion and had shown that he could find a way to win on all surfaces, against anyone when it really counted, even the reigning Australian Open champion who was on a 24 match winning streak. The result was a very physical, tactical war of attrition played on a tennis court. And at the end of it all the tennis world was stunned to see Novak Djokovic standing victoriously while the indomitable Rafael Nadal looked exhausted and defeated. This was the match (along with the US Open semifinal win against Federer) that gave Djokovic the confidence to know that he could beat Nadal even if he was not playing his best tennis. After this match it was clear that would only be a matter of when, not if, Djokovic would shatter the Federer-Nadal duopoly at the pinnacle of tennis.


7. R. Nadal ESP d. R. Federer SUI, 7-5 7-6(3) 5-7 6-1, Roland Garros final, Paris.
This was the 25th career meeting between Federer and Nadal, two of the greatest players of all time. It was the 4th time they met in the final of Roland Garros and their 8th major final showdown (Nadal winning 5 times.). Nadal  had never lost a final at Roland Garros (in fact so far in his career he has only ever lost one match there!) and thus no one really expected this match to be close. Nadal lead their career head-to-head with 16 wins to 8 losses and had won all 3 previous clay court major finals, their only hard court final in Australia and also won their greatest match (which many people call the greatest match of all time), the 2008 Wimbledon final. There's no question that the physical match up between Nadal's lefty spin and power on both wings with Federer's shot-making and serving prowess is a bad one for the Swiss, but the mental challenge is even more devastating. No one else on tour wins 2/3rds  (and expects to win that many) of their matches against the 16-time major champion. So it was quite surprising for everyone watching this match when the first set was clearly on Federer's racquet after he played 40 minutes of crisp, aggressive clay court tennis to blunt and thwart Nadal's many advantages on the surface. An attempted drop shot winner from the baseline on set point which just bounced centimetres wide is what separated the two gladiators this time. Realizing that he had played better than Nadal for large stretches of the first set but had still lost it sapped Federer's mental resolve and he meekly succumbed to the inevitable defeat in four sets of elegant but futile tennis.


8.  N. Djokovic SRB d. R. Nadal ESP, 6-4 6-1 1-6 6-3, Wimbledon final, London.
This was the match that really reflected the fact that the changing of the guard was complete at the top of men's tennis and the new #1 was not named Federer or Nadal but Djokovic. This was Djokovic's first match after clinching his lifetime goal of being universally (and officially) acclaimed the best tennis player in the world. He was facing a 2-time Wimbledon defending champion who had not lost since the 2007 Men's final (having skipped the 2009 tournament due to injury). Did Djokovic really have the ability to take away a major title from a defending champion on that champion's turf? The answer was clearly yes as Djokovic showed how his game with an improved serve, flawless groundstrokes combined with unmatched confidence and stunning movement were a much more problematic match-up for Nadal than what he was used to facing against his arch-rival Roger Federer.  Surely having previously lost five finals in a row to Nadal in his career, Djokovic would not be able to beat Nadal in five finals in the same year? Again, the Serbian responded to the question in the affirmative and marked the official beginning of the Djokovic era by winning the most prestigious title in tennis in a convincing fashion.




9. N. Djokovic SRB d. R. Nadal ESP, 7-5 6-4, 2011 Madrid Masters final, Madrid.
Rafael Nadal has gone through entire clay court seasons (2006, 2010) without losing a match on the surface in which he is almost universally acclaimed as the greatest of all time. So, when earlier this year Nadal faced a still undefeated Novak Djokovic it was a canonical example of an unmovable object facing an irresistible force. Most observers felt that Nadal's clay court magic would carry him to victory in this match as it had in the 10 previous times the two had met on clay. This final is most important for the significance of the result: The first time Nadal was beaten by Djokovic in a clay court final.



10. A. Roddick USA d. M. Raonic CAN, 7-6 (7), 6-7 (11), 7-5, Regions Morgan Keegan Championships final, Memphis.
 This match is the only one not featuring any of the Top 4 players in the world, Djokovic, Nadal, Federer or Murray. However, it does feature one of the most incredible shots on match points ever (although I would still argue the 2010 US Open Fernando Verdasco-David Ferrer match has the best match point of all time). It also features Milos Raonic, who is almost certainly going to be joining the Top 4 within the next few years. The 21-year-old 6'5" hard-serving Canadian ended the year at #31 and reached a career high of #25 during the year. In this match he faced off against Andy Roddick, a player who was unlucky to be playing in the era of two of the greatest players of all time (Federer and Nadal), in the throes of a hot streak which included winning his first ATP Tour title the week before in San Jose. Roddick's performance in the 2009 Wimbledon men's final is still fresh in a lot of people's memories, where Federer finally broke Sampras's record of 14 major singles titles by outlasting a determined challenge from the American. After his one major win in New York in 2003, Roddick has amassed an impressively consistent record of winning at least one ATP tour title for the last 9 years, a record he shares with Federer thanks to his amazingly gutsy effort on the final point of his match against Raonic.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

The following matches are ones that should not be forgotten, but because of mathematical limitations, could not be in the Top 10 matches of the year. However each one either featured some amazing shots or extended periods of high-quality tennis or were entertaining or important to me as a tennis fan. (They are provided here, in no ranked order, for your perusal, and to jog your memory.)
J.-C. Ferrero ESP  d. G. Monfils FRA, 7-6 (5), 5-7, 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-4, 2011 U.S. Open 2nd Round, New York

D. Nalbandian ARG d  L. Hewitt AUS, 3-6 6-4 3-6 7-6(1) 9-7 , 2011 Australian Open 1st Round, Melbourne.
R. Federer SUI d. R. Nadal ESP, 6-3 6-0, Barclays ATP World Tour Finals round-robin, London.

A. Dolgopolov UKR d  R. Soderling SWE, 1-6 6-3 6-1 4-6 6-2, 2011 Australian Open 4th Round, Melbourne.

N. Djokovic SRB d. A. Murray GBR, 6-4 6-2 6-3, 2011 Australian Open final, Melbourne.

N. Djokovic SRB d. R. Federer SUI, 6-4 6-2 6-3, 2011 Australian Open semifinal, Melbourne.

A. Murray GBR d  A. Dolgopolov UKR, 7-5 6-3 6-7(3) 6-3, 2011 Australian Open quarterfinal, Melbourne.

N. Djokovic SRB d. T. Berdych CZE, 6-1 7-6(5) 6-1, 2011 Australian Open semifinal, Melbourne.

F. Lopez ESP d. A. Roddick USA, 7-6(2) 7-6(2) 6-4, Wimbledon 3rd Round, London.

K. Nishikori JPN d. N. Djokovic SRB, 3-6 7-6(4) 6-0, Swiss Indoors semi-final, Basel.

N. Djokovic SRB d. R. Nadal, 4-6 6-3 6-2, BNP Paribas Open final, Indian Wells.

D. Ferrer ESP d. R. Nadal ESP, 6-4 6-2 6-3, 2011 Australian Open quarterfinal, Melbourne.

R. Federer SUI d. F. Lopez ESP, 7-6(13) 6-7(1) 7-6(7), 2011 Madrid Open 3rd Round, Madrid.

N. Djokovic SRB d. R. Nadal ESP, 7-5 6-4, 2011 Madrid Open final, Madrid.

R. Gasquet FRA d. R. Federer SUI, 4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(4), Italian Open 3rd Round, Rome.

R. Nadal ESP d. J. Isner USA, 6-4 6-7(2) 6-7(2) 6-2 6-3, Roland Garros 1st Round, Paris.

A. Murray GBR d. J-W. Tsonga FRA, 2-6 7-6(2) 6-4, Queen's Club final, London.

J. Isner USA d. N. Mahut FRA 7-6(4) 6-4 7-6(6), Wimbledon 1st Round, London.

R. Nadal ESP d. J-M. Del Potro ARG, 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4, Wimbledon 4th Round, London.

D. Young USA d. S. Wawrinka SUI, 7-6(7) 3-6 2-6 6-3 7-6(1), U.S. Open 2nd Round, New York. 

R. Federer SUI d. J-W Tsonga FRA, 6-4 6-3 6-3, U.S. Open quarterfinal, New York.
A. Murray GBR d. J. Isner USA, 7-5 6-4 3-6 7-6(2), U.S. Open quarterfinal, New York.
J-W Tsonga FRA d. M. Fish USA,6-4 6-7(3) 3-6 6-4 6-2, U.S. Open 4th round, New York.

J-W Tsonga FRA d. J. Isner USA, 3-6 7-6(1) 7-6(3), BNP Paribas Paris Masters semi-final, Bercy.

R. Federer SUI d. J-W. Tsonga FRA, 6-3 6-7(6) 6-3, Barclays ATP World Tour Finals final, London.
R. Nadal ESP d. J-M del Potro ARG, 1-6, 6-4, 6-1, 7-6(0), Davis Cup Final.

Federer Beats Nishikori To Win 68th Title

Harold Cunningham/Getty Images

World #4 Roger Federer won his 2nd title of 2011, the 68th of his majestic career, by defeating Kei Nishikori  6-1 6-3 in Basel, Switzerland. Nishikori spoiled a 3rd consecutive year of Swiss Indoor Championship final matches between Novak Djokovic and Federer when the Japanese player handed the Serbian only his 4th defeat of the year in the semifinals. Nishikori pulled off the most stunning upset of the year by coming back from a set down to beat the World's #1 player 3-6 7-6(4) 6-0, the first player from Asia to defeat a current #1 since Paradorn Srichapan defeated Lleyton Hewitt in 2001.  Federer defeated his countryman Stanislas Wawrinka 7-6(5) 6-2 in the other semifinal and notched his 21st win in 23 matches against Andy Roddick in the quarterfinals. Nishikori's path to the final included Top 10 player Tomas Berdych in the first round who he beat 3-6 6-3 6-2. The tournament was struck by a shocking amount of withdrawals, including Andy Murray and Robin Soderling.

The last Masters 1000 tournament of the year starts Monday in the Bercy suburbs of Paris. It is possible that the only player from the Top 5 in the World playing it will be Federer, as Rafael Nadal announced earlier that he was withdrawing to concentrate on the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London, where he has never done very well.

Murray Wins Shanghai Title; Becomes World #3

Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images

Andy Murray continued his post-US Open 15-match winning streak by defeating David Ferrer 7-5 6-4 to defend his Shanghai Masters title and surge past Roger Federer to #3 in the ATP Tour rankings. Federer falls to #4, the lowest he has been in the rankings since he first won his first Grand Slam at Wimbledon in 2003.

Murray has won the last three tournament he has entered and now has 21 ATP Tour titles in his career including 8 Masters series titles, the most by any active player who has yet to win a Grand Slam, and more than several former players who did win a slam (Andy Roddick, Jim Courier, Marat Safin to name a few).

The other big news in Shanghai was Rafael Nadal's shocking loss in the 3rd round which cemented Novak Djokovic's hold on the World #1 spot through the end of the year despite the Serbian not having played a tour match since winning the 2011 US Open.

Nadal Loses in Shanghai; Djokovic Clinches #1

Novak Djokovic has clinched the year-end #1 spot for the first time thanks to World #2 Rafael Nadal's shocking loss at the Shanghai Masters in the third round to Florian Mayer. Djokovic has been ranked #1 since July 4, 2011.

The ATP reports:

The 24-year-old Belgrade native is the first Serbian man to finish No. 1 in the history of the ATP Rankings (since 1973). It also marks a record eighth straight year a European is the No. 1 player on the ATP World Tour. For seven years from 1985-91, Europeans finished No. 1.

Djokovic is the first player other than Roger Federer (2004-07, ‘09) or Rafael Nadal (2008, ’10) to finish No. 1 since American Andy Roddick in 2003.

[...]

En route to a 64-3 match record, he has captured a record five ATP World Tour Masters 1000 titles in a season, in Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid, Rome and Montreal. He has also compiled a 20-2 mark vs. Top 10 opponents, defeating rivals Nadal six times and Federer four times so far in 2011.

Djokovic becomes the 16th person in the history of the ATP rankings to end the year at #1.

US OPEN 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

The Fabulous Four meet again:
Djokovic (1) v Federer (3), Nadal (2) v Murray (4)

This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals, with the women's semifinals preview also available. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 2 of 2 men's semifinals.

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) v. Roger Federer SUI (3). This is of course a repeat of last year's instant classic Men's semifinal won by Djokovic after saving 2 consecutive match points in the 5th set. The question is, will this year's result be the same as last year's? Arguably, Djokovic is playing much better now than he did then, but so is Federer. (But clearly Djokovic's improvement over 2010 is larger than Federer's.) Is the fact that Federer is one year older (and now over 30, playing someone who is 24) more significant than the fact that he is the only player to have beaten Djokovic in a best of 5 set match all year? Or is the Serb's juggernaut record of 62-2 for the year more salient? Amazingly, Federer and Djokovic have met during the last weekend of the US Open for the last 5 years and Federer is 3-1 so far (including one final, in 2007). In fact, the Swiss great leads their career head-to-head 14-9, but has lost three times to Djokovic on hard courts this year (including the 2011 Australian Open semifinal where Federer was defending champion). In New York, Federer has actually had the toughest draw of the Top 4 players, facing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (11) and Marin Cilic (27). Djokovic has had a much easier time with two retirements in his first 5 rounds and a double-bagel match.  Djokovic's competition has been Nikolay Davydenko, Aleksandr Dolgopolov and an inspired Janko Tipsarevic. Interestingly, his matches have gotten tighter (in the score) as the tournament progresses, while Federer has basically played at the level he needs to win, relative to whoever is on the other side of the net. As most readers know, I am a decided Federer fan and when I started this write-up I intended to make a clear call for The Greatest Of All Time. I'm convinced he can win this match, but I am unsure as to whether he will. Doing the research for this piece has shown me that Djokovic is more likely to win this match, and the title. However, if Federer comes out early playing the kind of tennis he played against Tsonga and Juan Monaco I believe he can win in straight sets. Regardless, I doubt it will match last year's semifinal's shot-making and drama. MadProfessah's pick: Federer in 3 sets OR Djokovic in 4 or 5.

 Andy Murray GBR (4) v. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Nadal holds a significant 12-4 career head-to-head over Murray, including a slight 4-3 edge on hard courts. However, their more recent matches on hard courts have been very close, with the most famous being their electric 3-set thriller at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London in 2010, won by Nadal. In matches at the majors, Nadal leads 5-2 but at the 2010 Australian Open Murray was beating the Spaniard like a drum in the quarters when Nadal pulled the ripcord and retired from the match. However, I think what matters most is the match-up today and how they have been playing to date in New York. Nadal has had to get through Andy Roddick (21), David Nalbandian and Gilles Muller. Murray has had to get past John Isner (28), Donald Young and Feliciano Lopez (25). Really both players have had a relatively easy path to the semifinals, although Murray had to survive a 5-set scare against talented Robin Haase in the second round. The Brit is clearly starting to cement his "Fab 4" status, by making the semifinals or better of every major played in 2011(something Djokovic has also managed for the first time this year while Nadal has only done it once, in 2008 and Federer did for five consecutive years in a row from 2005 and 2009). He is showing his consistency and letting his innate talent shine through. Murray also has confidence, being one of two players to have defeated Djokovic in 2011, something Nadal hasn't done. I believe Murray is going to do something he hasn't done before (and which a lot of people don't expect him to do), and beat Nadal in a major semifinal. MadProfessah's pick: Murray in 3 or 4 sets OR Nadal in 5.

US OPEN 2011: Men's Quarterfinal Preview

The first two quarterfinals have already been completed (following my predictions precisely) so on Friday during the day the second two quarterfinals will be competed, consisting of the four winners of the 4th round matches that were postponed for two days due to rain: John Isner, Andy Roddick, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal.

Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinal matches and this year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Below are my predictions for the last two men's quarterfinal matches of the 2011 US Open.

John Isner USA (28) v. Andy Murray GBR (4). Interestingly, these two have only played once before, last year, at the 2010 Australian Open where Murray made it to the final, losing to Federer in straight sets. Frankly, I was surprised that Isner was able to take out Frenchman Gilles Simon in the round before. Although he has (probably) surpassed fellow American Andy Roddick as the most feared server in the world, he also shares the Roddick problem of being considered something of a "one note" wonder.  However, hard courts are definitely the 6'9" American's best surface and he has made his presence felt in 2011. It's difficult to make the quarterfinals of a major tournament without having multiple weapons, or a dollop of good luck. This is Isner's first major quarterfinal and Murray's tenth. Isner will most likely have a very partisan crowd backing him up, and Murray will delight in not having the weight of a nation's hopes weighing on his shoulders. The problem for Isnner is that he is playing Murray, who has been in 3 of  the last 7 hard court major finals (losing in all of them, but demonstrating his hard court bona fides) and is likely to reach his fourth.  PREDICTION: Murray.


Andy Roddick USA (21) v. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Nadal holds a 6-3 career head-to-head over all but that falls to 3-all on hard courts. They have only played once in a major, back at the 2004 US Open when an 18-year-old Nadal was schooled by the defending US Open champion in three, not very competitive sets 7 years ago. I did not predict Roddick to get this far in the tournament, but I think, now that he has, he really, really wants to get further, and he believes that he can, especially in New York. The shorter the match is, the better it is for Roddick, because if the match goes into four or five sets, Nadal's superior fitness will become more and more of a factor.

However, I do think that Roddick is ready to make another move to get deep in a major, especially here in New York where he had his greatest success. Nadal is still reeling from his unprecedented five consecutive losses to Novak Djokovic earlier this year and really had an undistinguished preparation coming into the Open. He must realize that due to the weather he will be forced to play four best-of-5 set matches in four days in order to defend his title, potentially the last three being against Roddick, then Murray and then the winner of Djokovic/Federer. Even for the indefatigable Spaniard, that might make him want to say "no mas." PREDICTION: Roddick.

US OPEN 2011: Men's Quarterfinals & R16 Preview

Due to a complete rain out of play on Tuesday September 7 the men's draw has been thrown into disarray. Because the US Open is the only major which does not have a day off between the semifinals and final, losing a day in which quarterfinals were supposed to be played complicates things dramatically.

Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 2010 men's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 2010 women's quarterfinals.
My predictions for the 2011 women's quarterfinals are also available. Below are my predictions for the two of the 2011 men's quarterfinals hat are set (and four of the Round of 16 matches).

The plan for today, Day 10 of the 2011 US Open, is to both finish off playing the last four round of 16 matches (which just happens to feature three American players: John Isner, Donald Young and Andy Roddick) AND the first two men's quarterfinals, on the same day.

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) v. Janko Tipsarevic SRB (20). The World #1 has only lost two matches all year long, and is having one of the all-time great seasons, with a record of 61 win, 9 tournament titles (including 2 majors). It's true that Djokovic almost lost his first set of the tournament in difficult conditions against the funky game of Aleksandr Dologopolov but that does not reflect any diminution in his powers. Tipsarevic is a player whose game Djokovic knows well, since they are from the same country and are fellow Davis Cup team members. Tipsarevic is a very smart player and knows how to be dangerous but it is very doubtful he can end Djokovic's streak in his very first major quarterfinal appearance unless Novak is having a very very bad day. PREDICTION: Djokovic.


 Roger Federer SUI (3) v. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (11). This is the best potential quarterfinal match up and should probably be the best match of this action-packed day. Federer is in his jaw-dropping 30th consecutive major quarterfinal while Tsonga is in his 6th quarterfinal of his career, and his first in New York City, a major which Federer has won more times (5) than Tsonga has been in the draw (4). Because of his injuries and absences from the sport Federer and Tsonga have only met 7 times, 4 of which have come this year, with 2 wins each. However, Tsonga has won the last two times they played, including an amazing result at Wimbledon where he came from 2-sets down to beat Roger in 5, the first time ANYONE had ever done that at a major tournament, let alone on Roger's best surface of grass (which is probably also Tsonga's best surface). So clearly Tsonga now does have the game to beat Roger and can do it if he is playing his best while Roger is not. Happily for Federer, the Swiss showed that he still has some of his best tennis left in him when he dismantled Juan Monaco 6-1 6-2 6-0 in a late-night match prior to Tuesday's deluge. Federer also enjoys a challenge, as evidenced by his glee in handling Djokovic his first loss of the year in Paris to end the Serb's undefeated season. I believe tonight's match will be very close, almost definitely 4 or 5 sets, with Federer coming through for a rematch with Djokovic in the semifinals on Saturday. PREDICTION: Federer.


The following fourth round matches are also being completed today.

Gilles Simon FRA (12) v. John Isner USA (28). For the second round in a row French counterpuncher Simon is taking on a giant, huge serving player. Simon was able to dismiss 6'6" 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro in four sets on Sunday (which I watched from the fourth row courside in Armstrong) while 6'9" John Isner was able to overcome stiff resistance from speedy Alex Bogomolov, Jr. Simon is a much better player than Bogomolov and unless Isner plays very well, he will face the same fate as Del Potro.This is the match where Isner needs to prove he is not just (in the words of Roger Federer, about another huge-serving American) "a great server" but a great player. Having also seen Isner play close up (from first row courtside in Armstrong) I would say he is not yet a great player, though he is a great competitor. That might be enough against the Frenchman, but I doubt it. PREDICTION: Simon.


Donald Young USA v. Andy Murray GBR (4). Amazingly, the young African American phenom has a win this year over a player named Andy Murray. However, that Andy Murray was recovering from his 3rd consecutive major final loss and is not the same player who handed new World #1 Novak Djokovic only his second loss of the season a few short weeks ago in Cincinnati. Young has finally lived up to his potential to reach the last 16 of a major tournament for the first time, beating 2 seeded players Juan Ignacio Chela (24) and Stanislas Wawrinka (14). By reaching the 4th round Young will receive the largest paycheck of his career. Hopefully he uses it wisely to invest in his game so that his 2011 US Open results are just the beginning of good results and not a fluke. PREDICTION: Murray.


David Ferrer ESP (5) v. Andy Roddick USA (21). This is the toughest match for me to predict in this round. I have not been that impressed with Roddick'splay and I haven't seen a single point of Ferrer's. But I know the Spaniard is always a rough customer, and against Roddick he leads their career head-to-head 5-3 including two crucial Davis Cup wins for Spain over USA (one from 2011). Presumably, Roddick will try and turn this encounter into a home court advantage Davis Cup match as well, but can his 29-year-old game match up to Ferrer's feistiness? PREDICTION: Ferrer.


Gilles Muller LUX v. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Nadal will be interested in making a statement about his fitness after the world saw him cramping up after a press conference after his last match. Muller will be lucky to win a handful of games in each of the three sets played. PREDICTION: Nadal.

List Of Top 10 Highest Paid Tennis Players

Forbes magazine has published the new list of the hghest paid tennis players, headed by Roger  Federer. Yahoo Sports goes into some detail of how the Top 5 players on the list make their money.

1. Roger Federer, $47 million
2. Rafael Nadal, $31 million
3. Maria Sharapova, $25 million
4. Novak Djokovic, $18 million
5. Andy Murray, $13.5 million
6. Andy Roddick, $13 million
7. Caroline Wozniacki, $12.5 million
8. Venus Williams, $11.5 million
9. Kim Clijsters, $11 million
10. Serena Wiliams, $10.5 million

This is a very curious list, because it seems surprising to me that Venus would be making more in endorsements than Serena. It's also interesting, that more than half of Djokovic's $18 million comes in prize money ($11 million) while a very small fraction of Federer's comes from prize money. ($10 million of it per year comes from Nike.)

Also, recently I blogged that Li Na had overtaken Sharapova as the world's highest paid female athlete. I understand most of the numbers used in the Forbes report are for 2010. It will be interesting to see where Li Na ends up on the list in future years, and also how much Djokovic can capitalize on his incredible, historic season.