DUBAI: Federer Beats Murray For 72nd Career Title

Roger Federer continued his strong play in 2012 by extending his winning streak to 10 in a row, capturing his  second consecutive ATP title of the year, the Dubai Duty Free Championships. Federer defeated Murray 7-5 6-4 in the final, one day after Murray had handed World #1 Novak Djokovic his first defeat of the year, and Federer won one of the closest matches of the year against Juan Martin del Potro, who he beat last week in the final of the Rotterdam tournament.

Federer improved his career head to head to 7 wins and 8 losses against Murray and his overall record in finals to 72 wins and 30 losses. Since turning 30 on August 8, 2011 Federer is 41-5, winning 5 of the last 7 tournaments he's entered.

The first Masters 1000 tournament of the year starts on Monday in Indian Wells, followed afterwards by the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami. Last year, Djokovic won both American hard court Masters series tournaments over Rafael Nadal.

DUBAI: Murray Beats Djokovic in 2-Sets; Faces Federer

Well, well! Andy Murray handed Novak Djokovic his first defeat of 2012, stopping the World #1's winning streak at 10 matches this year, guaranteeing that the Serbian phenom would be unable to match 2011's astonishing 42-match winning streak to begin the year.

Murray beat Djokovic in straight sets 6-2 7-5 in the semifinals of the Dubai Duty Free Championships , a tournament Djokovic had won 3 years in a row (defeating Federer in 2011). The  World #4 Scottish player improved his career head-to-head to 5 wins-7 losses, with the last loss coming in a 5-set heartbreaker of the 2012 Australian Open.

Murray will face World #3 Roger Federer in the final, and the 3-time major finalist holds a caeer head-to-head edge of 8 wins, 6 losses against the 16-time major champion. Federer defeated Juan Martin del Potro for the 3rd time in 2012, improving to a record of 10 wins and 2 losses against the Argentine giant. The match was incredibly close (and high quality) with Federer coming out on top, 7-6(5) 7-6(6).

In the final I expect the match to be of quite a high quality, but either Federer will win in 3 sets, or Murray will continue his momentum and win in straight sets.

Federer Wins 1st Title of 2012 in Rotterdam

Roger Federer won his 1st ATP Tour title of 2012, by defeating 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro 6-1 6-4 to win the ABN AMRO Championships in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Federer improved to 71-30 in ATP Tour finals, while del Potro now has a 9-5 record. This was the second time in 2012 Federer had beaten the 6'5 Argentinian, also winning their 2012 Australian Open quartfinal encounter.

AUS OPEN 2012: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the Men's Semifinals at the 2012 Australian Open. My predictions for the Women's Semifinals are also available. This year I previously predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly.

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) vs Andy Murray GBR (4). The World #1 and defending Australian Open champion re-asserted his dominance over the rest of the field by dismissing World #5 David Ferrer in ruthless  fashion in straight sets 6-4 7-6(4) 6-1.

© Ben Solomon/Tennis Australia

The Serbian has won half of his major titles at this venue and is looking in similar top form this year. Also looking good is the Scot Andy Murray who has made it to the Australian Open final for the last two consecutive years. Against 1st time quarterfinalist Kei Nishikori Muray deployed his vast reserves of guile, power and speed to gently demolish the Japanese youngster in straight sets 6-3 6-3 6-1. Murray has been in the Top 4 in the world since 2008 but only in the last year or so has he solidified his status there, reaching the five major semifinals in a row. It is time for him to take the next step, and beating Djokovic in a major final would be that step. Unfortunately, I don't think that is going to happen in Melbourne, but I do believe that Murray will come close, winning at least one set and possibly two. Head to head Murray has a decent 4 wins 6 losses record against Djokovic and ever since his disastrous performance in last year's final has taken his clashes with his contemporary rival extremely seriously. (The two were born one week apart, in 1987.) Murray was on his way to beating Djokovic last summer in the Cincinnati Masters final when the Serbian retired from the match and the two played one of the best matches of the year at the Rome semifinals. On hard courts the head-to-head narrows to 4-all, with all of Murray's victory over Djokovic coming on this surface. Much has been said and implied about Murray's decision to hire Ivan Lendl as a coach, and I do think it is the mental aspect of the game in which Murray needs to demonstrate improvement when playing against the only three people in the world more higher ranked than he is. That being said, after the year Djokovic has just had he is not particularly lacking in the confidence department, as will be made clear by the end of the match. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.


Roger Federer SUI (3) vs Rafael Nadal ESP (2). This is the 27th meeting between the two future Hall of Famers who have a staggering 26 major titles between the two of them, with 10-time major winner Nadal famously leading their legendary rivalry 17-9, although 16-time major champion Federer leads 5-4 on hard courts. Oddly, the two have met only once at the Australian Open where Nadal won their 2009 final by racing through the final 2 sets of their 5-set match. That result so devastated Federer that he was reduced to tears during the trophy ceremony and had to be comforted by his opponent, allowing the Swiss great to literally cry on his shoulder.

© Getty Images

Another oddity is that this is only the second time the two have met in the semifinal of a major (the other time was at Roland Garros in 2005 and it was won by Nadal on his way to his first major title of his career). Although the physical match-up between their two styles of play puts Federer at a distinct disadvantage, the primary problem the Swiss player has had in this storied rivalry is the mental dimension. However, since the last time they met the result was a 6-3 6-0 demolition of Nadal that should put the mental edge between these two players at the lowest level it has been in years. Federer just played his 1000th career match (814 wins-186 losses) in dismissing an in-form Juan Martin del Potro in scintillating fashion, 6-4 6-3 6-2. Nadal, on the other hand, played well over 4 hours of grinding tennis to defeat a player 6-7(5) 7-6(6) 6-4 6-3 who has only ever beaten him three times in thirteen meetings. I believe all of these factors will combine to give Federer the edge to reach his 23rd (!) major final. Mad Professah's pick: Federer in 3 or 4 sets or Nadal in 5 sets.

AUS OPEN 2012: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) vs David Ferrer ESP (5). The World #1 demonstrated that he is not perfect after all by dropping a set for the first time in the tournament against former World #1 and 2-time major champion Lleyton Hewitt in the previous round. That does not bode well for his quarterfinal match up with David "The Beast" Ferrer who basically is Hewitt 2.0 with more stamina and greater power on both wings. However the Spaniard will not have the huge audience support from the Melbourne crowd that nearly carried their countryman to victory. Ferrer actually has a decent career head-to-head record against Djokovic, winning 5 of 11 matches, which includes a win the last time they played at the Barclays ATP World Tour Championships at the end of Djokovic's "golden year" of 70 wins, 6 losses. On hard courts, Djokovic leads their head-to-head 5-2 and even though Ferrer was able to reach the semifinals against a hobbled Rafael Nadal last year, it is extremely unlikely that he will get as much assistance from his opponent this year. Mad Professah's Pick: Djokovic in 4 sets.

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (6) Kei Nishikori JPN (24). The second most surprising upset of the tournament was Nishikori's win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the fourth round. Tsonga had seemed to be on the verge of breaking into the stranglehold the Top 4 players in the world have had on the zenith of men's tennis by reaching the last match of the 2011 season (the championship match of the Barclay's ATP World Tour Finals) and winning one of the first ATP Tour titles of the 2012 season. Nishikori continues to make history, becoming the first Japanese male player to reach the quarterfinal of a grand slam final with his gutsy win over a surprisingly listless Tsonga. Nishikori has significant weapons (court coverage and speed, a sneakily powerful first serve and excellent backhand), which he used to great effect to hand Djokovic one of his rare losses in a full match in Basel last year. Unfortunately for Nishikori he is playing a well-rested Andy Murray who has reached the finals of this tournament for two consecutive years (l. Federer 2010, l. Djokovic 2011) and looks in even better form this year than he has previously. Nishikori has the skills to go even deeper into a slam, but this tournament will not be where that happens. Mad Professah's pick: Murray in 3 sets.


Juan Martin del Potro ARG (11) vs Roger Federer SUI (3). The Swiss Maestro continues to make history, reaching his incredible 31st consecutive major quarterfinal of his career. del Potro is one of the only players besides Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Federer who has been able to win a major championship in the last 6 years (2009 US Open). The tall Argentine is one of the hardest hitting players of all time but has spent the last two years recovering from a wrist injury and slowly returning to world-beating form. The bad news for Federer is that del Potro is very close to that form so that this match should be very tough for the 30-year-old father of twin girls. However, Federer has won this tournament four times previously and likes to start the year with good results and so I am confident that he is ready for the challenge. Additionally, Federer has a substantial 7-2 career advantage over del Potro, but if it gets to a 5th set Federer doesn't really have an excellent record and I think Juan Martin would have the edge, but I think it is more likely than not the match will not be that close. Mad Professah's pick: Federer in 3 or 4 sets or del Potro in 5 sets.

Tomas Berdych CZE (7) vs Rafael Nadal ESP (2). This match is a rematch of the 2010 Wimbledon Men's final (which I attended in person) that was easily won by Nadal.  In fact, in 13 career meetings, Berdych has only beaten Nadal 3 times (all on hard courts) and lost ten times to the 10-time major champion from Spain. In fact, Berdych hasn't had a win over Nadal since 2006, losing 9 matches in a row. This is somewhat surprising because Berdych is an excellent hard-court player and Nadal's vicious topspin shouldn't trouble the 6'5" Czech player on the backhand side as much as it vexes most right-handed players (like Federer, for example). This is only Berdych's fifth major quarterfinal of his career while this is Nadal's tenth consecutive quarterfinal. The Spaniard will want to surpass his below-seeding performance from 2011 (losing in this round to Ferrer) and set up a mouth-watering semifinal between either Federer or del Potro. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal in 4 sets.

Nadal Leads Spain To 2011 Davis Cup Victory

From left to right: Fernando Verdasco, Feliciano Lopez, David Ferrer, Rafael Nadal,
Marcos Granollers and Spain's Davis Cup Captain Albert Costa. (AFP Photo/Cristina Quicler)

Yesterday World #2 Rafael Nadal powered his country of Spain to a 3-1 win in the Davis Cup final for the third time in his career, 5th time overall for Spain. Nadal whipped Juan Monaco on Argentina 6-1 6-1 6-2 and then came back from a set down to close out the tie by defeating Juan Martin del Potro 1-6 6-4 6-1 7-6(0) on clay in Seville, Spain. World #5 David Ferrer also contributed to his country's victory by outlasting del Potro in a gruelling 6-2, 6-7(2), 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 five-set win.

Nadal had helped Spain win the 2004 Davis Cup over the United States in 2004 (as a teenager) and in 2008 over Argentina. Argentina becomes the first country to reach the final tie four times without a victory. The 6-time Roland Garros champion is not known as "The King of Clay" for nothing; despite suffering his most lopsided loss of a set on the surface in years, Nadal was able to devise a solution to the hard-hitting, 6'6" Argentinian and maintain his incredible record of only 7 clay court losses in professional play in his career. Beating Spain on clay, with Nadal, Ferrer, Verdasco, Lopez and the rest of "the Spanish Armada" is an almost impossible proposition for any country, as Spain proved once again on Sunday. Their only loss of a point in the match-up with Argentina was when David Nalbandian and Eduardo Schwank were able to defeat the doubles team of Lopez and Verdasco (hubba hubba!)

Nishikori Stuns Djokovic In Basel Semis

Wow! For only the fourth time this year World #1 Novak Djokovic did not win an ATP Tour match after stepping on to the court. He lost to Asia's best male player, Kei Nishikori of Japan 3-6 7-6(4) 6-0. Djokovic was two points from the win receiving 4-5, 0-30 in the second set but his the speedy Japanese playerwas able to track it down and go on to win the tiebreaker; the Serbian only won 10 points in the final set, losing his only bagel set of the year.

Djokovic was clearly not at his best, playing in his first tournament in 6 weeks, and received treatment for a right shoulder injury after winning the first set, the same injury that caused him to retire during his match with Andy Murray at the Cincinnati Open this summer.

In fact, of the four matches Djokovic has lost in 2011, half of them have been to retirements (the loss to Murray in Cincinnati and lost to Juan Martin del Potro in the Davis Cup semifinal). The loss to Nishikori was only the second full match Djokovic has lost all year, out of 72 matches played the Serbian has won 68 (plus a 69th win due to a controversial walk-over in the French Open quarterfinals over the pulchritudinous Fabio Fognini). Roger Federer was the only person to beat Djokovic at a grand slam best-of-5-sets match all year long, doing so in the semifinals in four sets.

Djokovic is likely to pull out of the Paris Masters event starting in Bercy on Monday, but should be okay for the World ATP Tour Finals in London starting November 20th.

Congratulations to Nishikori, who will be playing for his second tour title against either Federer or Stanislas Wawrinka.

Djokovic's Body Fails Him

In last week's Davis Cup matches, World #1 Novak Djokovic was unable to carry his team to victory, unlike last year. Djokovic retired from Serbia's semi-final tie with Argentina, allowing the South American country to reach another Davis Cup final. It should be interesting to see if the difference in results will have an impact on Djokovic's 2012 (or perhaps even the rest of 2011).

Argentina's Juan Martin del Potro was his country's Davis Cup hero, and they will face the indomitable Spain in the final tie in December which will of course be on red dirt in Spain, presumably Madrid. World #2 Rafael Nadal, who Djokovic has beaten in 6 very important finals this year so far, was devastatingly effective against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet, serving up a bagel set in each of his straight set thrashings of the French players.

World #3 Roger Federer boarded a plane to Australia a mere hours after his heart-wrenching loss to Djokovic in the U.S. Open semifinals (up two match points for the second consecutive year) and to try and get Switzerland back into the Davis Cup World Group (and confirm his eligibility for next year's London Olympics. Switzerland was able to win their tie 3-2 with Federer contributing wins over Bernard Tomic and Lleyton Hewit and then teaming up with Stanislas Wawrinka to lose a tight doubles match against Hewitt and Chris Guccione. Wawrinka became the star for the Swiss team when he won a 5-set match against Hewitt 6-3 (after the match was suspended for darkness at 5-3!) to clinch the win for the Swiss and eliminate the Australians.

It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, these Davis Cup results have on the 2012 Grand Slam results (and the 2012 London Olympics).

US OPEN 2011: Men's Quarterfinals & R16 Preview

Due to a complete rain out of play on Tuesday September 7 the men's draw has been thrown into disarray. Because the US Open is the only major which does not have a day off between the semifinals and final, losing a day in which quarterfinals were supposed to be played complicates things dramatically.

Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 2010 men's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 2010 women's quarterfinals.
My predictions for the 2011 women's quarterfinals are also available. Below are my predictions for the two of the 2011 men's quarterfinals hat are set (and four of the Round of 16 matches).

The plan for today, Day 10 of the 2011 US Open, is to both finish off playing the last four round of 16 matches (which just happens to feature three American players: John Isner, Donald Young and Andy Roddick) AND the first two men's quarterfinals, on the same day.

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) v. Janko Tipsarevic SRB (20). The World #1 has only lost two matches all year long, and is having one of the all-time great seasons, with a record of 61 win, 9 tournament titles (including 2 majors). It's true that Djokovic almost lost his first set of the tournament in difficult conditions against the funky game of Aleksandr Dologopolov but that does not reflect any diminution in his powers. Tipsarevic is a player whose game Djokovic knows well, since they are from the same country and are fellow Davis Cup team members. Tipsarevic is a very smart player and knows how to be dangerous but it is very doubtful he can end Djokovic's streak in his very first major quarterfinal appearance unless Novak is having a very very bad day. PREDICTION: Djokovic.


 Roger Federer SUI (3) v. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (11). This is the best potential quarterfinal match up and should probably be the best match of this action-packed day. Federer is in his jaw-dropping 30th consecutive major quarterfinal while Tsonga is in his 6th quarterfinal of his career, and his first in New York City, a major which Federer has won more times (5) than Tsonga has been in the draw (4). Because of his injuries and absences from the sport Federer and Tsonga have only met 7 times, 4 of which have come this year, with 2 wins each. However, Tsonga has won the last two times they played, including an amazing result at Wimbledon where he came from 2-sets down to beat Roger in 5, the first time ANYONE had ever done that at a major tournament, let alone on Roger's best surface of grass (which is probably also Tsonga's best surface). So clearly Tsonga now does have the game to beat Roger and can do it if he is playing his best while Roger is not. Happily for Federer, the Swiss showed that he still has some of his best tennis left in him when he dismantled Juan Monaco 6-1 6-2 6-0 in a late-night match prior to Tuesday's deluge. Federer also enjoys a challenge, as evidenced by his glee in handling Djokovic his first loss of the year in Paris to end the Serb's undefeated season. I believe tonight's match will be very close, almost definitely 4 or 5 sets, with Federer coming through for a rematch with Djokovic in the semifinals on Saturday. PREDICTION: Federer.


The following fourth round matches are also being completed today.

Gilles Simon FRA (12) v. John Isner USA (28). For the second round in a row French counterpuncher Simon is taking on a giant, huge serving player. Simon was able to dismiss 6'6" 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro in four sets on Sunday (which I watched from the fourth row courside in Armstrong) while 6'9" John Isner was able to overcome stiff resistance from speedy Alex Bogomolov, Jr. Simon is a much better player than Bogomolov and unless Isner plays very well, he will face the same fate as Del Potro.This is the match where Isner needs to prove he is not just (in the words of Roger Federer, about another huge-serving American) "a great server" but a great player. Having also seen Isner play close up (from first row courtside in Armstrong) I would say he is not yet a great player, though he is a great competitor. That might be enough against the Frenchman, but I doubt it. PREDICTION: Simon.


Donald Young USA v. Andy Murray GBR (4). Amazingly, the young African American phenom has a win this year over a player named Andy Murray. However, that Andy Murray was recovering from his 3rd consecutive major final loss and is not the same player who handed new World #1 Novak Djokovic only his second loss of the season a few short weeks ago in Cincinnati. Young has finally lived up to his potential to reach the last 16 of a major tournament for the first time, beating 2 seeded players Juan Ignacio Chela (24) and Stanislas Wawrinka (14). By reaching the 4th round Young will receive the largest paycheck of his career. Hopefully he uses it wisely to invest in his game so that his 2011 US Open results are just the beginning of good results and not a fluke. PREDICTION: Murray.


David Ferrer ESP (5) v. Andy Roddick USA (21). This is the toughest match for me to predict in this round. I have not been that impressed with Roddick'splay and I haven't seen a single point of Ferrer's. But I know the Spaniard is always a rough customer, and against Roddick he leads their career head-to-head 5-3 including two crucial Davis Cup wins for Spain over USA (one from 2011). Presumably, Roddick will try and turn this encounter into a home court advantage Davis Cup match as well, but can his 29-year-old game match up to Ferrer's feistiness? PREDICTION: Ferrer.


Gilles Muller LUX v. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Nadal will be interested in making a statement about his fitness after the world saw him cramping up after a press conference after his last match. Muller will be lucky to win a handful of games in each of the three sets played. PREDICTION: Nadal.

US OPEN 2011: Djokovic Seeded #1

Yesterday I talked about the ridiculous seeding that USTA gave to 3-time US Open champion Serena Williams by placing her at #28 when most people believe she is the odds-on favorite to win her 14th major there this year.

On the men's side things were far less eventful, with the seedings generally following the ATP rankings.
It does mark the first time since 2003 that either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal has not been seeded #1 at the US Open, and it is the new #1, Novak Djokovic who takes a stunning 57-2 record for the year into the final major of the year, having won 2 of the 3 so far.

France has an incredible four players in the top 12 and three of them are bolded, indicating they are players to watch who could make some noise at this years Open,which starts on Monday. Spain has three in the Top 10. The players in blue are the ones I expect to win the title on Sunday September 10 and 11. It could very well depends on the draw, which will be known tomorrow.

Men's singles
1. Novak Djokovic (SRB), 2. Rafael Nadal (ESP), 3. Roger Federer (SUI), 4. Andy Murray (GBR), 5. David Ferrer (ESP), 6. Robin Soderling (SWE), 7. Gael Monfils (FRA), 8. Mardy Fish (USA), 9. Tomas Berdych (CZE), 10. Nicolas Almagro (ESP), 11. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA), 12. Gilles Simon (FRA), 13. Richard Gasquet (FRA), 14. Stanislas Wawrinka (SUI), 15. Viktor Troicki (SRB), 16. Mikhail Youzhny (RUS), 17. Jurgen Melzer (AUT), 18. Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG), 19. Fernando Verdasco (ESP), 20. Janko Tipsarevic (SRB), 21. Andy Roddick (USA), 22. Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR), 23. Radek Stepanek (CZE), 24. Juan Ignacio Chela (ARG), 25. Feliciano Lopez (ESP), 26. Florian Mayer (GER), 27. Marin Cilic (CRO), 28. John Isner (USA), 29. Michael Llodra (FRA), 30. Ivan Ljubicic (CRO), 31. Marcel Granollers (ESP), 32. Ivan Dodig (CRO)

Women's singles
1. Caroline Wozniacki (DEN), 2. Vera Zvonareva (RUS), 3. Maria Sharapova (RUS), 4. Victoria Azarenka (BLR), 5. Petra Kvitova (CZE), 6. Li Na (CHN), 7. Francesca Schiavone (ITA), 8. Marion Bartoli (FRA), 9. Samantha Stosur (AUS), 10. Andrea Petkovic (GER), 11. Jelena Jankovic (SRB), 12. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL), 13. Peng Shuai (CHN), 14. Dominika Cibulkova (SVK), 15. Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS), 16. Ana Ivanovic (SRB), 17. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS), 18. Roberta Vinci (ITA), 19. Julia Goerges (GER), 20. Yanina Wickmayer (BEL), 21. Daniela Hantuchova (SVK), 22. Sabine Lisicki (GER), 23. Shahar Peer (ISR), 24. Nadia Petrova (RUS), 25. Maria Kirilenko (RUS), 26. Flavia Pennetta (ITA), 27. Lucie Safarova (CZE), 28. Serena Williams (USA), 29. Jarmila Gajdosova (AUS), 30. Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP), 31. Kaia Kanepi (EST), 32. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (ESP)

SHOCK! Nadal Loses 2nd Consecutive Match

World #2 Rafael Nadal lost his second match in a row for the first time since 2009 when he went down 1-6 6-7(5) 6-7(5) against Croatian Ivan Dodig at the Rogers Masters tournament in Quebec. World #3 Roger Federer, who turned 30 years old on Monday August 8, and World #1 Novak Djokovic both won their first matches since Wimbledon easily in straight sets.

Djokovic improved to a stratospheric 49-1 for the year, having won 7 titles including the Australian Open (d. Murray) and Wimbledon (d. Nadal) while Federer is at 40-9 with only one title but also one very important victory over Djokovic (at the French Open). Next up for Federer is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who eliminated him in the Wimbledon quarterfinals this year.

World #4 Andy Murray also lost his first match back, despite winning this title the last 2 years in a row. Still in the tournament are Juan Martin del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils.