INDIAN WELLS 2012: Azarenka-Sharapova Final Set

In a rematch of the first grand slam final of the year, World #1 Victoria Azarenka will face World #2 Maria Sharapova in the championship match of the 2012 Indian Wells tournament on Sunday. Azarenka won her first major final in that Australian Open final over Sharapova 6-3 6-0 and in fact has not lost a match all year long, she is 22-0 so far, netting 3 titles (Sydney, Melbourne and Doha). Azarenka has been playing excellent tennis after her first match in the desert, and nearly double-bageled World #5 Agnieska Radwanska two rounds ago, in the quarterfinal, eventually winning 6-0 6-2. In the semifinals, Azarenka dispatched red-hot Angelique Kerber 6-4 6-3. Sharapova advanced when a back-to-form Ana Ivanovic was forced to retire at the beginning of the second set after having lost the first set to the Russian.

Sharapova will almost certainly be gunning for revenge against the player who forced her to eat a bagel in a grand slam championship match just 6 weeks ago. Azarenka leads their career head-to-head 4-3 and has won both of their championship final matches (Miami 2011 and Melbourne 2012).

I had previously predicted that Sharapova would beat Azarenka in the Australian Open, mostly because I didn't think Azarenka would win her first major final and clinch #1 so quickly. However, Azarenka showed her mental toughness to the whole world, and coupled with her impressive physical prowess she has begun to optimize her tennis results.

MadProfessah's Prediction: Azarenka (in 3 sets).

DUBAI: Federer Beats Murray For 72nd Career Title

Roger Federer continued his strong play in 2012 by extending his winning streak to 10 in a row, capturing his  second consecutive ATP title of the year, the Dubai Duty Free Championships. Federer defeated Murray 7-5 6-4 in the final, one day after Murray had handed World #1 Novak Djokovic his first defeat of the year, and Federer won one of the closest matches of the year against Juan Martin del Potro, who he beat last week in the final of the Rotterdam tournament.

Federer improved his career head to head to 7 wins and 8 losses against Murray and his overall record in finals to 72 wins and 30 losses. Since turning 30 on August 8, 2011 Federer is 41-5, winning 5 of the last 7 tournaments he's entered.

The first Masters 1000 tournament of the year starts on Monday in Indian Wells, followed afterwards by the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami. Last year, Djokovic won both American hard court Masters series tournaments over Rafael Nadal.

DUBAI: Murray Beats Djokovic in 2-Sets; Faces Federer

Well, well! Andy Murray handed Novak Djokovic his first defeat of 2012, stopping the World #1's winning streak at 10 matches this year, guaranteeing that the Serbian phenom would be unable to match 2011's astonishing 42-match winning streak to begin the year.

Murray beat Djokovic in straight sets 6-2 7-5 in the semifinals of the Dubai Duty Free Championships , a tournament Djokovic had won 3 years in a row (defeating Federer in 2011). The  World #4 Scottish player improved his career head-to-head to 5 wins-7 losses, with the last loss coming in a 5-set heartbreaker of the 2012 Australian Open.

Murray will face World #3 Roger Federer in the final, and the 3-time major finalist holds a caeer head-to-head edge of 8 wins, 6 losses against the 16-time major champion. Federer defeated Juan Martin del Potro for the 3rd time in 2012, improving to a record of 10 wins and 2 losses against the Argentine giant. The match was incredibly close (and high quality) with Federer coming out on top, 7-6(5) 7-6(6).

In the final I expect the match to be of quite a high quality, but either Federer will win in 3 sets, or Murray will continue his momentum and win in straight sets.

2012 OSCARS: The Winners!

• Best Picture: The Artist
• Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
• Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
• Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
• Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne & Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants

Looks like I got 7 of 8 correct in my predictions. I would have been happy with either Viola Davis or Meryl Streep winning, but I'm very happy with the result. I'm pretty sure Viola will have another chance to win. Meryl will get more nominations but never win another.

The Artist and Hugo tied with 5 Oscars each, with The Artist winning the big prizes (Picture, Director, Actor, Score, Costume) with Hugo winning technical awards (Cinematography, Art Direction, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects).

2012 OSCARS: Final Predictions!

Here are my final predictions for the 2012 Oscars, which are basically identical to my previous post from two weeks ago except for Original Screenplay, which I think Woody Allen will win. I am pretty sure that Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer from The Help have wrapped up their Oscar campaigns with a victory, and that The Artist will come out on top, with Hugo  close behind. If there's any surprises in the Top 6 categories, it will be in Actress or Actor.

I would be so happy if there was a tie in the race for the Best Actress Oscar between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis!

Best Picture 

The Artist

The Descendants

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

Tree of Life
War Horse


SHOULD WIN: The Artist
WILL WIN: The Artist

Best Director

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese,  Hugo

SHOULD WIN: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
WILL WIN: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist

Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

SHOULD WIN: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
WILL WIN: Viola Davis, The Help

Best Actor

• Demián Bichir, A Better Life
• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Jean Dujardins, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball

SHOULD WIN: Jean Dujardins, The Artist
WILL WIN: Jean Dujardins, The Artist

Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
• Octavia Spencer, The Help

SHOULD WIN: Berenice Bejo, The Artist
WILL WIN: Olivia Spencer, The Help

Best Supporting Actor

• Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
• Jonah Hill,  Moneyball
• Nick Nolte, Warrior
• Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
• Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

SHOULD WIN: Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
WILL WIN:  Christopher Plummer,  Beginners

Best Original Screenplay

• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
• J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

SHOULD WIN: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
WILL WIN:  Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris 

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
• John Logan,  Hugo
• Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan,  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

SHOULD WIN: Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan,  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
WILL WIN: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants


I think  The Artist  will end up with the most Oscars, with Hugo close behind (probably 6 and 5 respectively).

AUS OPEN 2012: Djokovic Wins 5th Major Title

As I predicted yesterday, Novak Djokovic defeated Rafael Nadal in the longest grand slam final of all-time 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-7(5) 7-5 in 5 hours and 53 minutes in Melbourne, Australia to win  his 3rd Australian Open title, and 5th major title overall.

The words that come to mind to describe the level of the play in this match are  "stunning," "incredible," "astonishing" and "ridiculous." There is an excellent breakdown of the match set by set by ESPN.com columnist Ravi Ubha. He is is (somewhat prematurely, I think) calling it the greatest major final of the Open era.

I'm not ready to call it that yet but I do think it deserves to be in the conversation, and will almost certainly be the most memorable match of the year. (But even that is difficult to predict; if it takes nearly 6 hours to complete a five-set match between these two players on a hard court surface, what the heck will happen if they face each other in the finals of Roland Garros' red clay?)

Djokovic has inserted himself into the conversation about the greatest player of all time. If Rafael Nadal dominates Roger Federer (currently leading their head to head 18-9) and Novak Djokovic has won a jaw-dropping seven matches in a row against Nadal, every single one a final (3 of them major finals) and Federer leads his head-to-head with Djokovic 14-10 (including inflicting the Serbian's only 2011 loss in a major) then who is the G.O.A.T.? (I would argue it is the person who wins the most major singles titles, period, and thus Federer.)

One of the most amazing thing about the 2012 Australian Open final were the switches of momentum. Nadal wins the first set but then loses the next two. In the 4th set Djokovic had triple break point when Nadal was serving at 3-4 when Nadal won a string of 5 points in a row with some otherworldly play which evened the score. In the 4th set tiebreak Djokovic led 5-3 and hit an attempted forehand winner down the line which would have given him 3 consecutive championship points and pushed it wide instead. After getting back on serve in the tiebreak, Nadal won the last 3 points of the tiebreak to even the set at 2-sets all.

In the 5th set, I (like most observers and commentators) presumed Nadal would win. This was the competitors first 5th set ever, so it showed that Nadal had made progress from the previous 29 meetings. Djokovic was looking visibly tired and deflated after being tantalizingly close to winning the match in 4 sets. Nadal was actually hitting the ball harder in the 5th set than he had in the first (average groundstroke speed was 3 mph higher, 75mph to 72mph)! Nadal broke first and was at 4-2, 30-15 when he inexplicably hit a sitter backhand just wide of the line instead of the open court Djokovic had conceded. That was all it took for the Serb to come back. He won that point and the next to get his first break point and eventually evened the 4th set at 4-all. The 5th set was the first set in the match where Nadal was serving first so Djokovic had the scoreboard pressure of playing from behind. This was crucial when Nadal held to go up 5-4 in the 5th set, but the Spaniard never even got a sniff in Djokovic's service game leading to 5-all. The 11th game of the 5th set was the decider, with Djokovic breaking Nadal on his second opportunity and served for the championship at 6-5. He quickly got up 30-0 but then Nadal won the next three points (mostly on Djokovic errors forced by Nadal's excellent play) to have a breakpoint to even the match and for the first time in over 3 hours  Djokovic saved a breakpoint (Nadal was 4 of 5 on breakpoints to that point). Djokovic was able to win the last 3 points of the match to get back to duece at 6-5 and then won the last two points with excellent first serves which enabled him to get ahead in the rally early and he won the match on his first championship point with an easy inside-out forehand cross-court winner. For the first time (and probably not the last) Novak Djokovic defended a major title. If he wins the French Open in June (which I think is a distinct possibility) he will have won 4 slams in a row, something no man has been able to do since Rod Laver.

Absolutely amazing. On to the rest of 2012!

AUS OPEN 2012: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the Men's Semifinals at the 2012 Australian Open. My predictions for the Women's Semifinals are also available. This year I previously predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly.

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) vs Andy Murray GBR (4). The World #1 and defending Australian Open champion re-asserted his dominance over the rest of the field by dismissing World #5 David Ferrer in ruthless  fashion in straight sets 6-4 7-6(4) 6-1.

© Ben Solomon/Tennis Australia

The Serbian has won half of his major titles at this venue and is looking in similar top form this year. Also looking good is the Scot Andy Murray who has made it to the Australian Open final for the last two consecutive years. Against 1st time quarterfinalist Kei Nishikori Muray deployed his vast reserves of guile, power and speed to gently demolish the Japanese youngster in straight sets 6-3 6-3 6-1. Murray has been in the Top 4 in the world since 2008 but only in the last year or so has he solidified his status there, reaching the five major semifinals in a row. It is time for him to take the next step, and beating Djokovic in a major final would be that step. Unfortunately, I don't think that is going to happen in Melbourne, but I do believe that Murray will come close, winning at least one set and possibly two. Head to head Murray has a decent 4 wins 6 losses record against Djokovic and ever since his disastrous performance in last year's final has taken his clashes with his contemporary rival extremely seriously. (The two were born one week apart, in 1987.) Murray was on his way to beating Djokovic last summer in the Cincinnati Masters final when the Serbian retired from the match and the two played one of the best matches of the year at the Rome semifinals. On hard courts the head-to-head narrows to 4-all, with all of Murray's victory over Djokovic coming on this surface. Much has been said and implied about Murray's decision to hire Ivan Lendl as a coach, and I do think it is the mental aspect of the game in which Murray needs to demonstrate improvement when playing against the only three people in the world more higher ranked than he is. That being said, after the year Djokovic has just had he is not particularly lacking in the confidence department, as will be made clear by the end of the match. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.


Roger Federer SUI (3) vs Rafael Nadal ESP (2). This is the 27th meeting between the two future Hall of Famers who have a staggering 26 major titles between the two of them, with 10-time major winner Nadal famously leading their legendary rivalry 17-9, although 16-time major champion Federer leads 5-4 on hard courts. Oddly, the two have met only once at the Australian Open where Nadal won their 2009 final by racing through the final 2 sets of their 5-set match. That result so devastated Federer that he was reduced to tears during the trophy ceremony and had to be comforted by his opponent, allowing the Swiss great to literally cry on his shoulder.

© Getty Images

Another oddity is that this is only the second time the two have met in the semifinal of a major (the other time was at Roland Garros in 2005 and it was won by Nadal on his way to his first major title of his career). Although the physical match-up between their two styles of play puts Federer at a distinct disadvantage, the primary problem the Swiss player has had in this storied rivalry is the mental dimension. However, since the last time they met the result was a 6-3 6-0 demolition of Nadal that should put the mental edge between these two players at the lowest level it has been in years. Federer just played his 1000th career match (814 wins-186 losses) in dismissing an in-form Juan Martin del Potro in scintillating fashion, 6-4 6-3 6-2. Nadal, on the other hand, played well over 4 hours of grinding tennis to defeat a player 6-7(5) 7-6(6) 6-4 6-3 who has only ever beaten him three times in thirteen meetings. I believe all of these factors will combine to give Federer the edge to reach his 23rd (!) major final. Mad Professah's pick: Federer in 3 or 4 sets or Nadal in 5 sets.

AUS OPEN 2012: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the Women's Semifinals at the 2012 Australian Open. This year I previously predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly.

Victoria Azarenka BLR (3) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (11).  The most surprising aspect of the women's quarterfinals results were when 4-time major champion from Belgium beat World #1 Caroline Wozniacki in straight sets  many media outlets called it "an upset." Kim Clijsters has never lost a match to Wozniacki (only played three times) and anyone who appreciates "Big Babe" tennis knows why. Wozniacki can simply be overpowered by big hitting, she is too complacent to be a "Golden Retriever" of the ball. She has a horrendous record against such "Big Babes" as Li Na, Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Marion Bartoli, Victoria Azarenka and Petra Kvitova. Clisjsters led 6-3, 5-2 when things started to get complicated with Wozniacki putting up stiffer resistance with Clijster responded by getting tight. Wozniacki forced a tiebreaker which Clijsters was able to gut out 7-4. The tiebreak was dramatic but not as intensely exciting as the 2nd set tiebreak with Li Na where Clijster saved 4 consecutive match points on the way to her 4th round victory. 

The other quarterfinal in this half of the draw was a similar match up between a Big Babe and a counter puncher, i.e. Azarenka versus Agnieska Radwanska. The two best friends played a very scrappy first set of tennis with eight service breaks among the first dozen games played. Azarenka played an an atrocious tiebreak, failing to win a single point. But then she showed her mental toughness by deploying "selective amnesia" and forgot about the recent unpleasantness of the entire first set and proceeded to win the middle set with a bagel. During the third set the weather became a factor and it was clear that (surprisingly) the Pole was more heavily impacted than the Belarussian. Azarenka ended up sprinting to the finish line, winning 6-7(0) 6-0 6-2. Head to head, Clijsters leads Azarenka 4-2 overall (4-1 on hard courts). Clijsters has a decisive advantage in experience, with this being her 16th major semifinal compared to Azarenka's second. Clijsters' semifinal record is 8-7 in semis (although it is 3-0 since she returned after her retirement hiatus). I truly believe that Azarenka will reach a major final very soon, but will she be able to dismiss the defending Australian Open champion on her own turf? I believe the answer is yes. The good news for Azarenka is that it is unlikely that Clijsters is at 100% due to a rolled ankle two rounds before and also that the match will be played at night. PREDICTION: Azarenka.

Maria Sharapova RUS (4) vs. Petra Kvitova CZE (2).  The two took similar paths to reach here, with both only dropping one set each in the first five rounds. In the quarterfinal matches, Kvitova dismissed Sara Errani in two surprisingly tight sets 6-4 6-4 while Sharapova was never really threatened by Ekaterina "Serena-killer" Markarova in their 6-2 6-3 quarterfinal match. This semifinal is a repeat of the 2011 Wimbledon final, which was won relatively easy by Kvitova.

This was a surprising result to some but not to yours truly after closely observing Sharapova's serving woes during that tournament and comparing them to Kvitova's heavy groundstrokes combined with a powerful lefty serve. The good news for Sharapova this time is that she is serving much better in Melbourne than she did last summer in London. Kvitova is averaging around 28 winners per match compared to Sharapova's average of 24. However, Sharapova's service percentage is averaging nearly 70% for the tournament, while Kvitova's is merely 60%. Through five rounds of grand slam play,  Sharapova has an average of 4 doublefaults  compared to 2 aces per match (an inauspicious ratio of 2:1) while Kvitova has a total of 12 doublefaults to 16 aces (with a much better ratio of 3:4). My druthers would be to see a repeat of the Wimbledon final result since I do believe that Kvitova will be the #1 player in the world very soon, and if Sharapova wins the semifinal the first post-Wozniacki #1 will be decided by whoever wins this tournament. Kvitova is still a very streaky player; when she's hot she's unbeatable, when she's cold she's very pedestrian. If she remains on a hot streak long enough she could again take Sharapova out very quickly in straight sets, but it is more likely that Sharapova will be able to put enough resistance to allow Kvitova to cool down and create enough tension to allow the more experienced and mentally tough player (and coincidentally happens to be the one currently playing the better tennis) to pull through. Regardless, it should be an excellent example of Big Babe tennis at its best: a close, hard-hitting, loud match. PREDICTION: Sharapova.

2012 OSCARS: Actual vs. Predicted Nominations

Best Picture 

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

Tree of Life
War Horse


MadProfessah's Predictions: 7 out of 9.

Best Director

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


Best Actor

• Demián Bichir, A Better Life
• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Leonardo Dicaprio, J. Edgar 
• Jean Dujardins, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
• Olivia Spencer, The Help

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.

Best Supporting Actor

• Albert Brooks, Drive
• Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
• Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
• Jonah Hill,  Moneyball
• Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
• Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

MadProfessah's Predictions: 3 out of 5.

Best Original Screenplay

• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Mike Mills, Beginners
• Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
• J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Diablo Cody, Young Adult
• Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

MadProfessah's Predictions: 3 out of 5.


Best Adapted Screenplay

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
• Tate Taylor, The Help
• John Logan, Hugo
• Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


ANALYSIS

My overall total accuracy rate from the Top 8 categories is 75.0% (33 correct out of 44). This is a decrease from last year's astonishing 91% accuracy rate (41 out of 45) and lower than 2010's 82% accuracy (37 of 45). Interestingly, another thing I predicted correctly was that there would be 9 Best Picture nominations, not 10 for the first time in history (the new rule is that any film with first-place votes which is at least 5% of the total number of Oscar ballots gets a Best Picture nomination).


I underestimated the total for Hugo, which leads with 11 nominations, followed closely by The Artist at 10 nominations with War Horse tied Moneyball back at 6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (which was robbed of a Best Picture and Best Director nomination--Memo to David Fincher: "they really, really don't like you!") ended up with 5, along with putative front-runner The Descendants.

The Oscars will be handed out on Sunday February 26th at 7pm EST.

OSCARS 2012: Nominations Announced!

The nominees for the 84th Academy Awards were announced this morning in Hollywood.

BEST PICTURE: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse.
BEST DIRECTOR: The Artist - Michel Hazanavicius, The Descendants - Alexander Payne, Hugo - Martin Scorsese, Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen, The Tree of Life - Terrence Malick.
BEST ACTOR: Demián Bichir - A Better Life, George Clooney - The Descendants, Jean Dujardi - The Artist, Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Brad Pitt - Moneyball.
BEST ACTRESS: Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs, Viola Davis - The Help, Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady, Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kenneth Branagh - My Week With Marilyn, Jonah Hill - Moneyball, Nick Nolte - Warrior, Christopher Plummer - Beginners, Max von Sydow - Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Bérénice Bejo - The Artist, Jessica Chastain - The Help, Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids, Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs, Octavia Spencer - The Help.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash - The Descendants, John Logan, Hugo George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon - The Ides of March, Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin - Moneyball,Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist, Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig - Bridesmaids, J.C. Chandor - Margin Call, Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris, Asghar Farhadi - A Separation

The rest of the nominees can be found at Oscars.com. My predictions were published yesterday. I'll have more analysis later no how well I did predicting the Top 8 categories.

2012 Oscars: Nominations Announced Tomorrow

Tomorrow morning at 5am PST (Tuesday January 24) the 84th Academy Award nominations will be announced for films released in 2011. The Golden Globe award winners were previously announced on Sunday January 15th. After seeing the actual nominations I will post a more extensive post with my predictions for the Top 8 award winners. In previous years, Mad Professah has done pretty well in predicting both Academy Award nominations and wins.

Best Picture 

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

Tree of Life

Best Director

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin

Best Actor

• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Leonardo Dicaprio, J. Edgar
• Jean Dujardins, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
• Olivia Spencer, The Help

Best Supporting Actor

• Albert Brooks, Drive
• Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
• Jonah Hill,  Moneyball
• Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
• Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Best Original Screenplay

• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Mike Mills, Beginners
• Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Diablo Cody, Young Adult

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
• Tate Taylor, The Help
• John Logan, Hugo
• Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March

Total Nominations

1.  The Artist 10
2. The Descendants, 9
3. Moneyball, The Help 7
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2, Hugo, Midnight in Paris 5

Federer-Nadal XXVI: Federer Demolishes Nadal 63 60

AFP PHOTO / GLYN KIRK

World #4 Roger Federer played his arch-rival World #2 Rafael Nadal for the 26th time on Wednesday, and as I predicted, he won his first match against the Spaniard in 2011. However, no one could have predicted the 30-year-old Swiss maestro would pull off his most comprehensive defeat of Nadal in their long rivalry.

Federer won 6-3 6-0 in just over 1 hour. The result was never in doubt after the 5th game of the match. Nadal did not play badly (he had a Wozniacki-like 4 winners and 7 unforced errors) but Federer was dominant in every category, blasting 28 winners to only 8 unforced errors. Federer broke Nadal 4 times in 6 chances, one of his highest breakpoint conversions ever. Nadal was able to win only 9 points in the second set (to Federer's 28). This was the third time that Federer had won a 6-0 set against Nadal (the others being the 2006 Wimbledon final and 2007 Hamburg Masters final). Nadal still leads their career head-to-head with 18 wins to 8 losses.

By winning so easily (dropping only 1 set and winning 4) Federer became the first player to qualify for the semifinal elimination round. The winner of the match between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Nadal will decided the other semifinalist from Group B. Federer is the defending champion and is on a quest to become the first player to win the tour's year-ending championship for the 6th time.

In Group A, Andy Murray withdrew from the tournament due to the groin injury he was nursing in his loss to David Ferrer, which means that either Novak Djokovic, Ferrer or Tomas Berdych will be the 2 semifinalists. Janko Tipsarevic will replace Murray but since the tournament is a round-robin which has already commenced he has no chance to advance but he could get some serious cash. On Wednesday, Tipsarevic will face Berdych and Djokovic will face Ferrer.