2012 OSCARS: The Winners!

• Best Picture: The Artist
• Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
• Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
• Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
• Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne & Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants

Looks like I got 7 of 8 correct in my predictions. I would have been happy with either Viola Davis or Meryl Streep winning, but I'm very happy with the result. I'm pretty sure Viola will have another chance to win. Meryl will get more nominations but never win another.

The Artist and Hugo tied with 5 Oscars each, with The Artist winning the big prizes (Picture, Director, Actor, Score, Costume) with Hugo winning technical awards (Cinematography, Art Direction, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects).

2012 OSCARS: Final Predictions!

Here are my final predictions for the 2012 Oscars, which are basically identical to my previous post from two weeks ago except for Original Screenplay, which I think Woody Allen will win. I am pretty sure that Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer from The Help have wrapped up their Oscar campaigns with a victory, and that The Artist will come out on top, with Hugo  close behind. If there's any surprises in the Top 6 categories, it will be in Actress or Actor.

I would be so happy if there was a tie in the race for the Best Actress Oscar between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis!

Best Picture 

The Artist

The Descendants

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

Tree of Life
War Horse


SHOULD WIN: The Artist
WILL WIN: The Artist

Best Director

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese,  Hugo

SHOULD WIN: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
WILL WIN: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist

Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

SHOULD WIN: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
WILL WIN: Viola Davis, The Help

Best Actor

• Demián Bichir, A Better Life
• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Jean Dujardins, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball

SHOULD WIN: Jean Dujardins, The Artist
WILL WIN: Jean Dujardins, The Artist

Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
• Octavia Spencer, The Help

SHOULD WIN: Berenice Bejo, The Artist
WILL WIN: Olivia Spencer, The Help

Best Supporting Actor

• Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
• Jonah Hill,  Moneyball
• Nick Nolte, Warrior
• Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
• Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

SHOULD WIN: Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
WILL WIN:  Christopher Plummer,  Beginners

Best Original Screenplay

• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
• J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

SHOULD WIN: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
WILL WIN:  Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris 

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
• John Logan,  Hugo
• Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan,  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

SHOULD WIN: Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan,  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
WILL WIN: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants


I think  The Artist  will end up with the most Oscars, with Hugo close behind (probably 6 and 5 respectively).

2012 OSCARS: Actual vs. Predicted Nominations

Best Picture 

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

Tree of Life
War Horse


MadProfessah's Predictions: 7 out of 9.

Best Director

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


Best Actor

• Demián Bichir, A Better Life
• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Leonardo Dicaprio, J. Edgar 
• Jean Dujardins, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
• Olivia Spencer, The Help

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.

Best Supporting Actor

• Albert Brooks, Drive
• Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
• Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
• Jonah Hill,  Moneyball
• Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
• Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

MadProfessah's Predictions: 3 out of 5.

Best Original Screenplay

• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Mike Mills, Beginners
• Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
• J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Diablo Cody, Young Adult
• Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

MadProfessah's Predictions: 3 out of 5.


Best Adapted Screenplay

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
• Tate Taylor, The Help
• John Logan, Hugo
• Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


ANALYSIS

My overall total accuracy rate from the Top 8 categories is 75.0% (33 correct out of 44). This is a decrease from last year's astonishing 91% accuracy rate (41 out of 45) and lower than 2010's 82% accuracy (37 of 45). Interestingly, another thing I predicted correctly was that there would be 9 Best Picture nominations, not 10 for the first time in history (the new rule is that any film with first-place votes which is at least 5% of the total number of Oscar ballots gets a Best Picture nomination).


I underestimated the total for Hugo, which leads with 11 nominations, followed closely by The Artist at 10 nominations with War Horse tied Moneyball back at 6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (which was robbed of a Best Picture and Best Director nomination--Memo to David Fincher: "they really, really don't like you!") ended up with 5, along with putative front-runner The Descendants.

The Oscars will be handed out on Sunday February 26th at 7pm EST.