2012 OSCARS: Final Predictions!

Here are my final predictions for the 2012 Oscars, which are basically identical to my previous post from two weeks ago except for Original Screenplay, which I think Woody Allen will win. I am pretty sure that Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer from The Help have wrapped up their Oscar campaigns with a victory, and that The Artist will come out on top, with Hugo  close behind. If there's any surprises in the Top 6 categories, it will be in Actress or Actor.

I would be so happy if there was a tie in the race for the Best Actress Oscar between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis!

Best Picture 

The Artist

The Descendants

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

Tree of Life
War Horse


SHOULD WIN: The Artist
WILL WIN: The Artist

Best Director

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese,  Hugo

SHOULD WIN: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
WILL WIN: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist

Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

SHOULD WIN: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
WILL WIN: Viola Davis, The Help

Best Actor

• Demián Bichir, A Better Life
• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Jean Dujardins, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball

SHOULD WIN: Jean Dujardins, The Artist
WILL WIN: Jean Dujardins, The Artist

Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
• Octavia Spencer, The Help

SHOULD WIN: Berenice Bejo, The Artist
WILL WIN: Olivia Spencer, The Help

Best Supporting Actor

• Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
• Jonah Hill,  Moneyball
• Nick Nolte, Warrior
• Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
• Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

SHOULD WIN: Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
WILL WIN:  Christopher Plummer,  Beginners

Best Original Screenplay

• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
• J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

SHOULD WIN: Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
WILL WIN:  Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris 

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
• John Logan,  Hugo
• Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan,  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

SHOULD WIN: Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan,  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
WILL WIN: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants


I think  The Artist  will end up with the most Oscars, with Hugo close behind (probably 6 and 5 respectively).

2012 OSCARS: Predicting The Winners

Best Picture 

The Artist

The Descendants

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

Tree of Life
War Horse


SHOULD WIN: The Artist
WILL WIN: The Artist

Best Director

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo

SHOULD WIN: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
WILL WIN: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist

Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

SHOULD WIN: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
WILL WIN: Viola Davis, The Help

Best Actor

• Demián Bichir, A Better Life
• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Jean Dujardins, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball

SHOULD WIN: Jean Dujardins, The Artist
WILL WIN: Jean Dujardins, The Artist

Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
• Octavia Spencer, The Help

SHOULD WIN: Berenice Bejo, The Artist
WILL WIN: Olivia Spencer, The Help

Best Supporting Actor

• Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
• Jonah Hill,  Moneyball
• Nick Nolte, Warrior
• Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
• Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

SHOULD WIN: Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
WILL WIN:  Christopher Plummer,  Beginners

Best Original Screenplay

• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
• J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

SHOULD WIN: Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
WILL WIN:  Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
• John Logan, Hugo
• Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan,  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

SHOULD WIN: Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan,  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
WILL WIN: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants

2012 OSCARS: Actual vs. Predicted Nominations

Best Picture 

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

Tree of Life
War Horse


MadProfessah's Predictions: 7 out of 9.

Best Director

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Terrence Malick, Tree of Life
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
• Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


Best Actor

• Demián Bichir, A Better Life
• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Leonardo Dicaprio, J. Edgar 
• Jean Dujardins, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
• Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
• Olivia Spencer, The Help

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.

Best Supporting Actor

• Albert Brooks, Drive
• Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
• Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
• Jonah Hill,  Moneyball
• Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
• Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

MadProfessah's Predictions: 3 out of 5.

Best Original Screenplay

• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Mike Mills, Beginners
• Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
• J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Diablo Cody, Young Adult
• Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

MadProfessah's Predictions: 3 out of 5.


Best Adapted Screenplay

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
• Tate Taylor, The Help
• John Logan, Hugo
• Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
• Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.


ANALYSIS

My overall total accuracy rate from the Top 8 categories is 75.0% (33 correct out of 44). This is a decrease from last year's astonishing 91% accuracy rate (41 out of 45) and lower than 2010's 82% accuracy (37 of 45). Interestingly, another thing I predicted correctly was that there would be 9 Best Picture nominations, not 10 for the first time in history (the new rule is that any film with first-place votes which is at least 5% of the total number of Oscar ballots gets a Best Picture nomination).


I underestimated the total for Hugo, which leads with 11 nominations, followed closely by The Artist at 10 nominations with War Horse tied Moneyball back at 6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (which was robbed of a Best Picture and Best Director nomination--Memo to David Fincher: "they really, really don't like you!") ended up with 5, along with putative front-runner The Descendants.

The Oscars will be handed out on Sunday February 26th at 7pm EST.

2012 Oscars: Nominations Announced Tomorrow

Tomorrow morning at 5am PST (Tuesday January 24) the 84th Academy Award nominations will be announced for films released in 2011. The Golden Globe award winners were previously announced on Sunday January 15th. After seeing the actual nominations I will post a more extensive post with my predictions for the Top 8 award winners. In previous years, Mad Professah has done pretty well in predicting both Academy Award nominations and wins.

Best Picture 

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

Tree of Life

Best Director

• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Alexander Payne, The Descendants
• Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Best Actress

• Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis, The Help
• Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
• Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin

Best Actor

• George Clooney, The Descendants
• Leonardo Dicaprio, J. Edgar
• Jean Dujardins, The Artist
• Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Best Supporting Actress

• Berenice Bejo, The Artist
• Jessica Chastain, The Help
• Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
• Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
• Olivia Spencer, The Help

Best Supporting Actor

• Albert Brooks, Drive
• Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
• Jonah Hill,  Moneyball
• Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
• Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Best Original Screenplay

• Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
• Mike Mills, Beginners
• Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
• Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
• Diablo Cody, Young Adult

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
• Tate Taylor, The Help
• John Logan, Hugo
• Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
• George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March

Total Nominations

1.  The Artist 10
2. The Descendants, 9
3. Moneyball, The Help 7
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2, Hugo, Midnight in Paris 5

2012 Golden Globe Nominations Announced

The 2012 Oscar race heats up with the announcement of the nominations for the Golden Globes, the second-most watched awards show of the season. Of the Best Picture nominees, I have see n only Moneyball, The Help and Midnight in Paris.

Looks the tight race this year is going to be Best Actress, as predicted awhile back. Meryl Streep has two Oscars and Tilda Swinton has one. My sentimental favorite would have to be for Glenn Close, because I think she was robbed for Dangerous Liaisons all those years ago.


BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse 

BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
My Week with Marilyn 

BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, Midnight In Paris
George Clooney, The Ides of March
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo 

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J Edgar
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
Brad Pitt, Moneyball 

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin 

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brendan Gleeson, The Guard
Joseph Gordon Levitt, 50/50
Ryan Gosling, Crazy Stupid Love
Owen Wilson, Midnight in Paris 

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Jodie Foster, Carnage
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids
Michelle WIlliams, My Week With Marilyn
Kate Winslet, Carnage 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer, Beginners 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain , The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants 

BEST SCREENPLAY
Midnight in Paris, Woody Allen
The Ides of March, George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants, Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash
Moneyball, Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Flowers of War
In The Land of Blood and Honey
The Kid WIth The Bike
A Separation
The Skin I Live In

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist, Ludovic Bource
W.E., Abel Korzeniowski
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Hugo, Howard Shore
War Horse, John Williams

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Lay Your Head Down," Albert Nobbs
"Hello Hello," Gnomeo and Juliet
"The Living Proof," The Help
"The Keeper," Machine Gun Preacher
"Masterpiece," W.E.

Hat/tip to TowleRoad.

MOVIE REVIEW: Moneyball

The day before Thanksgiving, the Other Half and I finally got around to seeing the critically acclaimed (95% on rottentomatoes.com) Moneyball. It is based on the best-selling book of the same name by Michael Lewis, which tells the story of  how the Oakland Athletics baseball team applied the mathematical principles of Bill James "Sabermetrics" to the apparently non-mathematical arena of professional baseball.

Moneyball as a movie is basically your typical sports movie, but with a twist. There's no doubt that it is the best movie about baseball since the classic Bull Durham starring a then-cute Kevin Costner and not-yet-married (or divorced) Susan Sarandon and Tim Robbins. Interestingly, it is also a movie which features the classic sporting movie cliché of the redemption of the losing under dog. This time, however, the underdog is the hapless geek in the form of Jonah Hill, who plays Peter Brand, a recent Economics graduate from Yale who is also a baseball statistics geek and devotee of Sabermetrics. The movie is carried by Brad Pitt, who plays Billy Beane, the general manager of the Oakland Athletics, who at the beginning of the movie has just lost his marquee players to the deep pockets of the hated New York Yankees after losing the decisive 5th game in a playoff series.

The movie really revolves around the relationship between Beane and Brand as Beane quickly adopts Sabermetrics and he and Brand go about trying to convince the old fogeys in the Oakland management, exemplified by Philip Seymour Hoffman's Art Howe, that they can't compete with the teams which have budgets 50-100% greater than theirs. The old fogeys are not happy and initial results are not promising.

Of course, this being a traditional sports movie you know the Oakland A's are going to start winning eventually, and that does happen. For the casual sports fan who does not know the basic details of what actually happens the story unfolds in a compelling fashion (proving again that truth can be more interesting than fiction).

The movie is generally engaging but as a mathematician I was somewhat disappointed with the handwaving way in which the director chooses to communicate the computational implementation of Sabermetrics (lots of glowing equations floating in mid-air and quick-cut shots of spreadsheets). This is a minor quibble and I understand that this was a choice made to make the movie as enjoyable to the widest spectrum of movie-goers. The decision is generally successful since I can tell lots of people would find the movie a lot of fun.

Title: Moneyball.
Director: Bennett Miller.
Running Time: 2 hours, 13 minutes.
MPAA Rating: Rated PG-13 for some strong language.
Release Date: September 23, 2011.
Viewing Date: November 23, 2011.


Plot: A-.
Acting: A-.
Visuals: B+.
Impact: B+.


Overall Grade: (3.5/4.0).

Celebrity Friday: Brad Pitt Explains Marriage Equality Support

Brad Pitt, the once and future Sexiest Man Alive, gave an interview to the widely read Sunday newspaper insert Parade Magazine which explains his unconditional support for marriage equality:

“Can you believe that we’re still fighting for equality in America? To be against marriage for everyone is utter discrimination.  I feel strongly about that because if equality of marriage doesn’t happen now, the next generation will have to deal with it.

“It is an amazing thing that New York has finally gotten same-sex marriage. But the real problem is that the federal government hides behind states on this issue. It is blatant, ugly bigotry, and the federal government shouldn’t be doing that. You’re denying some Americans the right that all Americans have, to live their lives as they choose.

“What are you so afraid of? That’s my question. Gay people getting married? What is so scary about that? It’s complicated.  You grow up in a religion like that and you try to pray the gay away. I feel sadness for people like that. This is where people start short-circuiting—instead of being brave and questioning their beliefs, they are afraid and feel that they have to defend them.

“I don’t mind a world with religion in it. There are some beautiful tenets within all religions.  What I get hot about is when they start dictating how other people must live. People suffer because of it. They are spreading misery.    

I couldn't have said it better myself. Go Brad! Looking good at 47 years old, too!