Saturday Politics: California In Red, Blue and Purple

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has a new analysis of California voters which splits the electorate not along partisan lines but along liberal-conservatives lines. Since California's electoral system is being rocked by dual political earthquakes of the incorporation of a Top 2 Primary system (the top 2 finalists in the June 2012 primary election regardless of vote totals or party affiliations will face off on the November 2012 ballot) as well as the impact of legislative districts for Assembly, Senate and U.S. House drawn by a non-partisan citizen redistricting commission The impact of these two reforms will be huge and may necessitate a change in the typical Democrat-Republican analysis of elections. PPIC used five categories of voters (loyal liberal, moderately liberal, conservative liberal, moderate conservative, committed conservative) which they define as:

Loyal Liberal: Very liberal on both social and fiscal issues (18% of the state’s population);

Moderate Liberal: Moderately liberal on both social and fiscal issues (24%);

Conservative Liberal: Conservative on social issues and moderately liberal on fiscal issues (25%);

Moderate Conservative: Moderately liberal on social issues and conservative on fiscal issues (17%);

Committed Conservative: Conservative on both social and fiscal issues (15%).

The graphic above demonstrates the geographic distribution of these kinds of voters. In the report, PPIC notes that every geographic section of the state has drifted ideologically towards Democratic positions except for the inland sections.

The report ends with this these thoughts about 2012 and California's political future:

California may tend to vote for Democratic presidential candidates , but many places around the state espouse views that fall to the right of the Democratic Party’s typical positions. In fact, only the Bay Area is home to extraordinarily large numbers of people who hold opinions associated with the Democratic Party.

This could signal an opportunity for Republicans. Moderate Liberal and Conservative Liberal places contain half the state’s population and seem sympathetic to many conservative positions—yet they tend to support the Democratic Party. Still, altering this status quo could prove difficult. The small number of liberal Republicans in every part of the state implies that the party's electoral coalition is ideologically solid—but that may also make the party resistant to expansion efforts. Only time will tell.

Regardless, California’s 2012 election promises to be exciting and unpredictable. Given the inherent tensions between ideology and partisanship in much of California, the political geography that emerges after the election could look very different from the current landscape.

Very interesting stuff! I encourage you to read the entire thing, "California Political Geography," by Eric McGhee and Daniel Krimm.

Saturday Politics: Closeted L.A. Congressman Retires

David Dreier, has been in the U.S. House since 1981

David Dreier has represented the 26th Congressional District of California as a Republican since 1981. He has also been repeatedly outed in the media as a closeted gay man. Due to redistricting in California, Dreier's district was carved into thirds and section of it moved into other districts which were heavily Democratic, leaving the longtime incumbent with no U.S. House district in which to seek re-election, so he announced his retirement from Congress this week.

Dreier is the sixth California House member to announce plans to retire when his term ends, shaking up a delegation that has built up clout on Capitol Hill because of its stability over the years.

[...]

Dreier's announcement was not a surprise. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission's new map collapsed his district into three new ones.

Two of the newly drawn districts — both based in the San Gabriel Valley — are solidly Democratic with large ethnic voter populations.

Rep. Judy Chu (D-Monterey Park) is running in one with a strong concentration of Asian voters, and Rep. Grace F. Napolitano (D-Norwalk) has moved into the other, which includes Dreier's San Dimas home and where Latinos make up 46% of registered voters.

The 59-year-old, unmarried Congressman has long been  rumored to gay. It will be interesting to see how long it takes him to come out of the closet officially after retires.

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God.

Saturday Politics: CA-44, AD-51, AD-50, AD-64, SD-33

It's been awhile since we had a Saturday Politics edition but there's been a lot of developments now that we are well into 2012 which is a year divisible by 4, otherwise known as a Presidential election year.

AD-51. In my home Assembly District my friend Luis Lopez is running for the Democratic nomination. Luis is openly gay and is well-known to LGBT activists as the co-founder of HONOR Pac and HONOR Fund, two Latino LGBT political organizations. What people may not know is that he was born in East L.A. and even though his mom died when he as 8, Luis went on to get degrees from Pomona and Harvard after attending public schools. Recently, many Los Angeles-area Democratic organizations have been having endorsement meetings for the June 2012 statewide primary election. The Northeast Los Angeles Democratic Club endorsed heterosexual Jimmie Gomez, while the Stonewall Democratic Club, the oldest LGBT Democratic club in the country (and one of the largest) endorsed Luis, as did the Foothills Democratic Club. The big fight is on to see what will happen with the Los Angeles County Democratic Club and California Democratic Party endorsements.

AD-50. The 50th Assembly District, although adjacent in numerical order, is most definitely not geographically adjacent to the 51st. Surprisingly, the two political races are somewhat similar in that they both feature a grassroots, openly gay candidate (Torie Osbone in the 50th, Luis Lopez in the 51st) facing a more establishment type figure (53rd District Assemblywoman Betsy Butler in the 50th, Jimmie Gomez in the 51st). This is only a superficial similarity because in actuality Butler is a currently elected Assemblywoman who previously defeated an openly gay candidate to win her current seat but who enjoys support from various sections of the LGBT community due to her longstanding friendship with West Hollywood City councilman John Duran and her presence on the board of directors of Equality California Institute. Osborne is a longtime lesbian and progressive activist, having served terms (somewhat controversially) as the heads of the L.A. Gay and Lesbian Center and the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force. The issue in this district is that it includes both The People's Republic of Santa Monica (Home of the Homeless) as well as West Hollywood a.k.a. "Boystown" (L.A.'s Gay Ghetto) and that due to redistricting, the heterosexual, somewhat moderate Butler decided to run for re-election in a seat most thought should (or would) be represented by an openly LGBT and/or progressive politician. Osborne recently received the endorsement of the Stonewall and Malibu Democratic Clubs. Butler has more money and the advantage of incumbency while Osborne has significant grassroots support since her former partner Sheila Kuehl had previously represented these areas for 14 years.

CA-44, AD-64. Everyone expected this to be an exciting three-way race between two incumbent Congressmembers and a rising African American political star, fighting to represent a newly drawn 44th Congressional district which was carved out to include multiple sections of Los Angeles where Black and Latino people live in large numbers (17% of the District is African-American, 68% is Latino and a mere 7% is White). It contains the cities of Carson, Compton and South Gate. The first person to announce their intention to run in that district was (the very white) Congresswoman Janice Hahn whose 36th District she had won in July 2011 was basically eliminated in redistricting but whose political base of San Pedro was included in the 44th. However, it was expected that Congresswoman Laura Richardson would also seek re-election in the new CA-44 district, since Richardson's previous 37th District covered more than 50% of the new 44th and she could be considered the incumbent. However, Assemblyman Isadore Hall shocked a lot of people when he announced he was running and demonstrated significant support by outraising both Congresswoman in the 3rd quarter financial filings. However, since I last reported on this race, Hall has decided to drop out of the Congressional race and seek re-election to the Assembly in the newly drawn AD-64 (which was very similar to the district he currently represents). Hahn then followed that up by releasing a poll showing her with a nearly 20 point advantage over the somewhat ethically challenged Richardson. This one should be interesting to watch.

SD-33. Ricardo Lara, the second openly gay person of color to be elected in California (after California Assembly Speaker John Perez) used to represent the old 50th Assembly District (not the district with that name that Lopez and Gomez are running in in which MadProfessah's California residence is located) but has decided to run for the newly drawn 33rd State Senate District in 2012, potentially becoming the first LGBT person of color to be elected to that body. Happily for Lara, he currently does not face any significant Democratic opposition and will almost certainly become a State Senator representing a District which is over 70% Latino (the second most heavily Latino district in California). Interestingly enough this Senate district is literally right next door and slightly overlaps Hall's 64th Assembly District and the Hahn/Richardson 44th Congressional District. It will be great that the State Senate could have as many as 3 openly LGBT members (out of 40) starting in January 2013.

SCOTUS Aiming To Be Factor In 2012 Elections

The U.S. Supreme Court has announced some decisions recently which indicate that they will be a major factor in the 2012 presidential election. They announced they would decide three politically fraught cases: the constitutionality of the health care reform law, the constitutionality of Texas's congressional redistricting map and the constitutionality of Arizona's wildly xenophobic immigration law SB-1070.

U.S. Rep. Barney Frank Retirement Announcement

The longest-serving openly gay member of Congress, U.S. Representative Barney Frank (MA-05), announced today that he would not seek re-election to the U.S. House in 2012.

There are currently on.y four openly LGBT members of Congress, and Tammy Baldwin is giving up her seat to run for the United States Senate. David Ciccilline looks to have a tough-re-election bid. Jared Polis recently welcomed a newborn son to his household.

Joe.My.God has a collection of reactions from the national LGBT organizations on the news of Frank's retirement.

Saturday Politics: Isadore Hall Outraises Both Incumbents in CA-44

Assemblyman Isadore Hall previously came to my attention because he announced he was interested in a run for Congress way back in June even before redistricting was complete which would have entailed him challenging a sitting African-American Congresswoman. Now that redistricting is complete, there is much drama in what is being called the 44th Congressional District because it contains most of U.S. Rep. Laura Richardson's old district but also contains pieces of the former 36th Congressional district which was won by former Los Angeles City councilmember Janice Hahn in a special election this July.

Now  U.S. Rep. Hahn has controversially decided to run in the 44th congressional district, a district specifically designed to be "majority-minority" against U.S. Rep. Laura Richardson and Assemblymember Hall, who are both African-Americans.

However, what is striking that this week came the news that in the last reporting period the state legislator out-raised both of his federal legislator rivals.

The National Journal reports:

Richardson’s been the subject of ethics questions recently: She’s accused of forcing her staff to work for and contribute to her campaign. She’s denied the allegations, but her fundraising dropped off in the third quarter, bringing in only $72,000 with just $116,000 in the bank. Hahn, after her special election, raised $139,000. A third Democrat, Assemblyman Isadore Hall, outraised them both with $158,000.

Very interesting. In the Los Angeles area there are a number of these intra-Democrat incumbent versus incumbent battles, the most amusing being Rep. Brad Sherman versus Rep. Howard Berman (in the new CA-30), who not only have similar sounding names but basically identical voting records.

Saturday Politics: AD-50 Gets Complicated

Assemblymember Betsy Butler represented
the 53rd Assembly District since 2010

Of course at MadProfessah.com we have been paying close attention to the impacts of redistricting on California politics in particular. You may recall that last year MadProfessah closely covered the ins and outs of the highly contested race for the 53rd Assembly District seat, where a viable openly gay, Black candidate was running. The seat was run by Equality California board member, lobbyist and straight ally Betsy Butler.

In redistricting the old 53rd was split between 3 new districts, the 62nd, 66th and 50th. Now, Butler has decided to move into the 50th and run for "re-election" from that district, instead of the 62nd where her current residence is. However Assemblymember Steve Bradford, who is African American, intends to run in the 62nd which has a significant Black population. However, the 50th District contains the liberal pockets of Santa Monica and West Hollywood and openly lesbian candidate Torie Osborne has announced her intention to represent this district. Previously, Osborne's ex-girlfriend, Sheila James Kuehl, was the first openly LGBT person ever elected to the California legislature and had been elected to represent West Hollywood in a similar district.

Butler's decision has not endeared her with LGBT activists.

But Osborn is facing powerful opposition from an unexpected source: Assembly Speaker John Pérez. The speaker is backing Assemblywoman Betsy Butler, who plans to move from Marina del Rey into the new 50th district. 

If neither side backs down, the contest could cost millions and drive a wedge through the L.A. Democratic Party. 

"This is gonna be the most exciting Assembly race in Southern California," said party chair Eric Bauman.Osborn's supporters hope it doesn't come to that. They argue that a seat that includes West Hollywood should be represented by a gay person. (Butler is straight.) 

[...] 

Much of Butler's current district has been drawn into the new 66th district, which is split almost evenly between Democrats and Republicans. Butler apparently feels she stands a better chance in the 50th, which leans heavily Democratic.

Bauman, who is an adviser to Pérez, pushed back against the claim that the 50th ought to be represented by a gay person.

"It's not a gay seat," he said. "There are many gay people in the Legislature now. That's a bogus argument."

Bauman said that Osborn would make an "outstanding" legislator. But, he said, "I think it's logical for any leader of any Legislative house to protect their members first."

There are other Democrats in the race, including Santa Monica Mayor Richard Bloom. West Hollywood Councilman Jeffrey Prang dropped out earlier this month, because he did not want to challenge Butler. 

It should be very interesting!

CA-44: Rep. Hahn Faces Two Black Challengers For Congress

The old 36th Congressional District becomes the new 44th

Whoa! The fallout from decadal redistricting continues. The latest drama surrounds Black political power in Los Angeles County and its representation in the United States Congress. The 36th Congressional District, which was won by Janice Hahn in a special election in July 2011 has been redrawn so that the Congresswoman's residence now resides in the new 44th District.The problem is that the new 44th District was deliberately drawn to have a higher percentage of African American voters, and as many people have noted, Janice Hahn is not Black. But recently Hahn announced that she will run for Congress in the 44th District.

However, Congresswoman Laura Richardson and State Assemblyman Isadore Hall are, and they have both announced that they are running for the new 44th District. Rep. Richardson is running because the district in which she lives has been re-drawn to have a lot more Republican voters from Orange County in it.

A few weeks ago, Janice Hahn released a poll showing her with a big lead over both Hall and Richardson:

Rep. Janice Hahn: 47
Rep. Laura Richardson: 24
Asm. Isadore Hall: 7


Hall's problem is that nobody knows who he is. Richardson's problem is that people know exactly who she is, and they don't like her. According to Hahn's poll, Richardson has a favorability rating of just 37%. (Though she does much better with black voters, at 68%.)


[...]


According to the poll, Hahn does better than Richardson even among black voters. Hahn claims a 74% favorable rating among African-Americans, to Richardson's 68%.

Black politicians who have long supported any Hahn for elected public office (her father Kenneth for County Supervisor, her brother James for Mayor of Los Angeles and Janice herself for City Council and Congress) are very angry.

However, this week Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa endorsed Janice Hahn for Congress in the 44th district.