Saturday Politics: California In Red, Blue and Purple

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has a new analysis of California voters which splits the electorate not along partisan lines but along liberal-conservatives lines. Since California's electoral system is being rocked by dual political earthquakes of the incorporation of a Top 2 Primary system (the top 2 finalists in the June 2012 primary election regardless of vote totals or party affiliations will face off on the November 2012 ballot) as well as the impact of legislative districts for Assembly, Senate and U.S. House drawn by a non-partisan citizen redistricting commission The impact of these two reforms will be huge and may necessitate a change in the typical Democrat-Republican analysis of elections. PPIC used five categories of voters (loyal liberal, moderately liberal, conservative liberal, moderate conservative, committed conservative) which they define as:

Loyal Liberal: Very liberal on both social and fiscal issues (18% of the state’s population);

Moderate Liberal: Moderately liberal on both social and fiscal issues (24%);

Conservative Liberal: Conservative on social issues and moderately liberal on fiscal issues (25%);

Moderate Conservative: Moderately liberal on social issues and conservative on fiscal issues (17%);

Committed Conservative: Conservative on both social and fiscal issues (15%).

The graphic above demonstrates the geographic distribution of these kinds of voters. In the report, PPIC notes that every geographic section of the state has drifted ideologically towards Democratic positions except for the inland sections.

The report ends with this these thoughts about 2012 and California's political future:

California may tend to vote for Democratic presidential candidates , but many places around the state espouse views that fall to the right of the Democratic Party’s typical positions. In fact, only the Bay Area is home to extraordinarily large numbers of people who hold opinions associated with the Democratic Party.

This could signal an opportunity for Republicans. Moderate Liberal and Conservative Liberal places contain half the state’s population and seem sympathetic to many conservative positions—yet they tend to support the Democratic Party. Still, altering this status quo could prove difficult. The small number of liberal Republicans in every part of the state implies that the party's electoral coalition is ideologically solid—but that may also make the party resistant to expansion efforts. Only time will tell.

Regardless, California’s 2012 election promises to be exciting and unpredictable. Given the inherent tensions between ideology and partisanship in much of California, the political geography that emerges after the election could look very different from the current landscape.

Very interesting stuff! I encourage you to read the entire thing, "California Political Geography," by Eric McGhee and Daniel Krimm.

Graphic: Gas Prices Hurt Red States More Than Blue

An analysis of the rise of gas prices shows that they do not affect blue states (those that lean or vote Democratic in presidential elections) and red states (those that lean or vote Republican in presidential elections) equally. Gas prices are actually lower on average in red states than blue states, but residents in red states pay more of their income on gas.

The disparities are stark: Wyoming drivers pay $3.21 per gallon while drivers in California pay $4.34. And, oddly enough, the differences line up well with partisan patterns — Houser found that blue states pay significantly higher prices per gallon than red states.

But here’s the catch: Red states may enjoy cheaper gasoline, but they also tend to be less dense and have less-efficient vehicles, and their residents tend to drive more miles each day. Wyoming residents may pay less per gallon, but they use more gallons of gasoline. And this is a consistent pattern: Houser found that deep-red states are actually shelling out more for gasoline as an overall percentage of their income.

So, I guess the important question is which effect will have a larger impact on the presidential election and whether the salience of the "gas prices" issue in political analysis will be diminished due to this analysis.

Hat/tip to Wonk Blog

FILM REVIEW: The Iron Lady

The Other Half and I finally saw Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady, on the MLK holiday. As expected, it is an acting tour de force from La Streep, definitely worthy of an Oscar. As expected, Streep was received her record 17th Oscar nomination (14th as Best Actress) this week. She already has two Oscars (1982's Best Actress, Sophie's Choice; 1979's Best Supporting Actress, Kramer vs. Kramer) at home but it's been nearly 30 years since her last win. Come on, people, she's the greatest actor of all time, so she should have the highest award for excellence in film acting, the Academy Award.

Anyway, the particular vehicle which Meryl Streep is using to attempt to win her 3rd Oscar is a biography of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. It really is pretty incredible source material. It seems like a cliche, but sometimes truth is really harder to believe than fiction. A person who was the daughter of the owner of a greengrocer becomes the first female head of state of one of the countries who have a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, in other words, one of the world's superpowers. And she ends up becoming the longest serving Prime Minister of her country in the 20th century.

The screenplay is by Abi Morgan, and is somewhat unconventional. Most of the story is told as flashbacks from an elderly (and clearly mentally infirm) Lady Thatcher after she is no longer Prime Minister and is still daling with the death of her longtime husband Denis Thatcher from a decade before.
Denis is played well by Oscar-winner Jim Broadbent. The make-up on Meryl is stunning, so that not only is she doing an incredibly accurate impersonation of Margaret Thatcher as we remember her from the 1980s, but also a very believable look as a very old woman. We are used to seeing Meryl disappear into her characters, so one doesn't think one is seeing Meryl Streep on screen *acting* but instead one is following the travails of her character. The Iron Lady is another one of those cinematic experiences.

The sections of the film which follow Thatcher's rise to power and depict some of her important  moments in power are the high points of the film and are quite exciting. The problem is that they are bookended by returns to the present day with a portrayal of a feeble-minded, depressing Thatcher as a lonely, needy old woman. The acting is impeccable throughout, despite despising Thatcher's politics, Streep makes your empathize with the humanity of her situation. In fact, the film is surprisingly apolitical, mainly including politics to show Thatcher's consistent philosophy without ever really questioning its impact on people and effectiveness.

Overall, The Iron Lady is worth seeing for Meryl Streep's astonishing performance as well as an  interesting excursion through 1980s Great Britain.

Title: The Iron Lady.
Director: Phyllida Lloyd.
Running Time: 1 hour, 45 minutes.
MPAA Rating: Rated PG-13 for some violent images and brief nudity.
Release Date: January 13, 2012.
Viewing Date: January 16, 2012.

Plot: B-.
Acting: A+.
Visuals: A-.
Impact: B+.

Overall Grade: B+ (3.50/4.0).

WATCH: Sh*t Homophobic People Say

NH: Watch Ad Defending Marriage Equality

MI: Governor Signs Bill Ending DP Benefits For Public Employees

Governor Rick Snyder (R) was elected in 2010 and used his Republican majority
in both houses to strip domestic partner benefits from all unmarried public employees

Wow. This is incredibly horrendous news (especially if you live in, or know anyone who lives in, Michigan). The Republican Governor and State Legislature of Michigan have enacted a law which bans the state (and any local subdivision) from offering domestic partnership benefits to public employees.

AnnArbor.com reports:

Public employees, including state and local government workers and public school teachers, will no longer be allowed to extend their health care benefits to domestic partners.

It is unclear whether the bill applies to state universities, although Snyder asserts that it does not. House Republicans, meanwhile, say it does apply to university employees.

The move is a blow to gay and lesbian activists throughout the state.

"We’re so very disappointed in the governor," Kary L. Moss, executive director of American Civil Liberties Union's Michigan chapter, said in an interview. "This was the moment for him to show real leadership, to rise above what I believe is petty politics, to tell the rest of the country that Michigan is not living in the dark ages and to create an open, inclusive Michigan."

Governor Snyder vetoed a companion bill (HB 4771) which would have applied the domestic partnership ban (HB 4770) to state universities while he signed this bill into law.

AK and SD Only States Without Openly LGBT Elected

There are only two states in the Union which do not have a single openly LGBT elected official at any level: South Dakota and Alaska. Mississippi used to be on the list until last week when Mayor Greg Davis of Southhaven, MS admitted that he was gay after auditors found he had tried to get reimbursed for expenses at a an adult store while on a business trip to Canada!

According to Denis Dison at the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund:

That doesn’t mean these states aren’t served by LGBT elected officials, just that none have self-identified publicly either in speeches or in the media.  But one group that supports out elected officials says there’s a reason this matters.

“It’s important that people know there are LGBT people serving in public office, especially in their own communities.  That doesn’t mean that LGBT issues are front and center in their work.  In some cases just being open and honest about that part of our lives has great potential to deepen understanding of our community, and that makes a huge difference,” said Tiffany Muller, Vice President for Programs at the Victory Institute.

The Victory Institute maintains the most up-to-date database of out LGBT officials available, and in recent years elected officials in states like Kansas, South Carolina, West Virginia and North Dakota have been added.  The group has a goal in 2012 of having identified at least one out elected official in every state in the U.S.  ”That will mark a really significant milestone for LGBT Americans, and it will be a symbol of how far we’ve come as a country,” Muller said.

Who wants to bet that there are closeted politicians serving in elected office in South Dakota and Alaska right now (and maybe getting a  little nervous)?

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

SCOTUS Aiming To Be Factor In 2012 Elections

The U.S. Supreme Court has announced some decisions recently which indicate that they will be a major factor in the 2012 presidential election. They announced they would decide three politically fraught cases: the constitutionality of the health care reform law, the constitutionality of Texas's congressional redistricting map and the constitutionality of Arizona's wildly xenophobic immigration law SB-1070.

Ha-Ha! Author of SB-1070 Gets Recalled

Ha,ha! This was the most encouraging election result in a night full of heart-warming election results (rejecting Mississippi's zygote personhood amendment, repealing Ohio's anti-union law and rejecting Maine's voter suppression law): the xenophobic author of multiple pieces of immigrant-bashing legislation (but most notably SB 1070), Arizona State Senate President Russell Pearce was recalled by voters on Tuesday night.

KPHO reports:

Voters have ousted state Sen. Russell Pearce in an unprecedented recall election, a first for an Arizona legislator.

With a majority of the precincts reporting, the top vote-getter, Republican Jerry Lewis, steps into the District 18 legislative seat for the second year of a two-year term.

Lewis claimed victory at 9 p.m.  "Our opponent was the most powerful politician in Arizona and one who had deep-pocketed and powerful interests from outside our district backing him, as well as the entire muscle from our state Republican Party," Lewis said.

Lewis, 54, a charter school executive, has been a resident of Mesa for nearly 30 years.  His victory now forces the Senate's majority Republicans to pick a new leader for the chamber.

People on both sides of the debate said that removing Pearce would send a powerful message to the Legislature that uncompromising stances on immigration and other issues will not be tolerated by voters.

Pearce, a 64-year-old conservative Republican from Mesa, outspent his challenger by more than a 3-to-1 ratio and painted the recall advocates as liberal outsiders who targeted him because of his immigration stance.

Pearce was unabashedly racist and an asshole and it's a good riddance of bad rubbish. However, Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Governor Jan Brewer are still elected officials in Arizona and should be removed from office by voters as well.

Who's Oppressing Who?

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

Herman Cain Leads Latest NBC Poll

Black Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain is now leading the polls for the Republican nomination, breaking out of the single digit pack.

Cain also leads putative frontrunner Mitt Romney in recent polls in Florida, South Carolina, and Iowa..  Surely, a Black man could never be elected President of the United States, right?

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God.

Saturday Politics: DiFi's Low Poll Numbers, Cash Problem

U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, no longer California's most popular politician?

Dianne Feinstein, long thought to be the most popular politician in California, has been running into some rough times lately. MadProfessah blogged about her poll numbers approaching the danger zone in June 2011 and now comes word of a more recent poll (September 16) confirming the conservadem's fall from grace.

Reuters reports:

The Field Research Corp poll estimated voters who do not want Feinstein to win reelection in 2012 to another six-year term at 44 percent, compared to 41 percent who favor her.

That is the first time the Field Poll has seen a larger share of voters say they are opposed to seeing Feinstein win reelection compared to the percentage who favor her election.

Feinstein is chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and has a reputation for being more conservative than California's other Senator, Barbara Boxer, also a Democrat.

In nearly every Field Poll over the past two decades, voters who approved of Feinstein outnumbered by double-digit margins those who disapproved, researchers said.

But the Field Poll showed only 41 percent said they approved of her job performance while 39 percent disapproved, representing the lowest rating of Feinstein's tenure.

Besides the low poll numbers, Sen. Feinstein is also caught up in the burgeoning Kinde Durkee accounting scandal. Apparently her $5 millon war chest for next November's re-election has been wiped out. Feinstein is responding by using $5 million of her (husband's) money to replace the amount stolen by the corrupt Democratic political accountant.

Politico reported about Feinstein's troubles last week:

Feinstein’s campaign already had a cloud hanging over it: This will be the first major race she navigates without her longtime strategist Kam Kuwata, whose death in April stunned political observers and left a gaping hole in her operation.

Those developments, coupled with Feinstein’s age — she’ll turn 79 next year — have fueled retirement speculation. While a formal announcement isn’t planned until 2012, Carrick told POLITICO that Feinstein will pursue a fourth term. But a volatile environment that continues to punish politicians with longtime ties to the establishment could still provide an opening for a robust Republican challenge.

While most see a weakened Feinstein still sailing to a comfortable victory, some believe a legitimate GOP challenger could be a boon to both sides. The scandal forced Feinstein to begin fundraising from scratch, and donors are hesitant to throw money at a campaign that so far faces no serious threats.

“There’s nothing more frustrating than shadow boxing,” said Carrick. “That’s a fundraising issue too. You get some people to say, ‘I’ll give when she has a serious opponent.’”

I know that I will most definitely not donating to or voting for Dianna Feinstein, for anything, ever again. She lost me when she carried water for President George W. Bush to get some of his conservative federal judicial appointments through the United States Senate, teaming up with her "good friend" Joe Lieberman to give aid and comfort to the Republicans.

I don't care that she voted against DOMA in 1996 and supports the Respect for Marriage Act and  marriage equality. She's bad on a whole lot of other progressive issues, something which can NOT be said for California's other U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer, who I would walk 3 miles in the snow, barefoot to support. It's amazing that California has two Democratic female Senators who are so very different on the issues.d

British Government Moving Towards Marriage Equality

Lynn Featherstone is "Equalities Minister" in the British Coalition Government
 of the Tories (Conservatives)and LibDems (Liberal Democrats)

An important announcement was made by Minister Lynn Featherstone on behalf of the Government of Britain about its intention to legalize marriage equality before the next election, which by law can not be any later than May 2015.

Relatively recent polls in the United Kingdom indicate as much as two-thirds of the public supports full marriage equality for gay and lesbian couples.

An excerpt from Minister Featherstone's speech is available: 

“While on my travels as a champion for women’s rights, I am and will be a champion for gay rights too. Britain must not get complacent. We are a world leader for gay rights, but there is still more that we must do.

“In March, this Government will begin a formal consultation on how to implement equal civil marriage for same sex couples, and this would allow us to make any legislative changes necessary by the end of this Parliament.

“Civil partnerships were a welcome first step – but this party rejects prejudice and discrimination in all its forms, and I believe that to deny one group of people the same opportunities offered to another is not only discrimination, but is not fair.”

The current law in Great Britain (since 2005) allows same-sex civil partnerships which have all (or most) of the legal incidents of civil marriage but which are barred from occurring on religious property. Heterosexual couples are also barred from entering into civil partnerships. There is a lawsuit attempting to overturn the religious exemption and the heterosexual ban before the European Court of Human Rights.